100 Down
Best Bet Cold Streak is OVER!
2-1 to feels like 10-0
272 regular season games. That’s it. The first 100 have been played (107 to be exact), which means we’re in the thick of 2024. Dangerously close to the halfway point and the weeks are flying by. Cherish them. Thanksgiving will be here before you know it. The playoff picture is emerging. No time to waste. Let’s dive into Week 8.
In the spirit of promoting fellow writers in the Substack, we want to plug Orb Analytics Limited - these fellas do a great job week in and week out.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 18-18 (-6.1 Units)
CFB: 30-17-1 (+10.89 Units)
NFL WEEK 8
We went into Week 7 with one goal and one goal only: Stop. The. Bleeding.
Survive and advance. We started to dig out of the hole. Still a long way to go, but there’s a lot of season left. We’ll have another Degen Players Only meeting and release the audio on The Board Review Podcast which can be found on Apple and Spotify. Be sure to subscribe and throw us a rating if ya don’t mind (only if it’s 5 stars though).
Titans at Lions -11 Total 45 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-5
My goodness it felt good to get a best bet win last week. Now I’m going to switch it up from a spread and go with a total. Hope I don’t regret it!
Hate to admit that I like the dog in this spot, but there’s a new rule I am starting to live by: STOP BETTING ON TEAMS YOU THOUGHT WOULD BE SHIT. I faded the Titans with my largest future bet (3 units) on their under win total. People were buying into this team because of the free agent signings. My thought was that they were a bunch of guys happy to get a paycheck, and didn’t care too much for the wins. Truthfully though, I do think they’ll have success in the next 2-3 years, but not right now. But my biggest reason is that I believe Will Levis is fucking terrible, and does not deserve to be a starting QB in the NFL. After 6 weeks, it would appear head coach Brian Callahan agrees, as they’ve made the switch to Mason Rudolph.
The Detroit Lions are living up to the hype and appear to be one of the best teams in the NFL. After a sluggish start offensively, OC Ben Johnson has been in his fucking BAG. The get right game was at home against Seattle, then they demolished the Dallas Cowboys, and just put up 31 on the road against a very good Vikings defense. Safe to say my Jared Goff MVP ticket (40/1 back in May W CLV) has life?
However, this feels like a “fade” spot for Detroit. For the reasons stated above, I can’t press the button on Tennessee, so what I’ve ultimately decided is that I love this under. Tennessee is playing back-to-back road games after losing in Buffalo, and the Lions find themselves in a sandwich spot between just having played a divisional team (Vikings) and a trip to Green Bay next week. I think they lean on the running game here and this is a chance for the Defense to potentially outshine the offense.
The Pick: Under 45 (-110) - BetMGM
Cowboys at 49ers -4.5 Total 47 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-2
Allow me to introduce you to what I’m calling “The Hangover Spot”.
Teams coming off a Playoff revenge game. These situations are 3-0 in 2024.
Ravens lost to the Raiders after playing the Chiefs
Rams lost to the Cardinals after playing the Lions
Bucs lost to the Broncos after playing the Lions
It makes sense - you get up for revenge against the guys who ended your season the previous year. A letdown the following week is almost inevitable.
In this case we get the Golden Goose. Super Bowl revenge. The Chiefs were in control the entire game against the 49ers, burning sharp bettors across the globe. Now they welcome Dallas for a Primetime letdown after coming up short in a game that you know meant the world.
I certainly don’t like that it appears I’m buying so much bad news. The Niners are missing Aiyuk, CMC, and Deebo/Jennings are questionable as well. But the Cowboys have their own injury issues.
To my own demise I faded the Cowboys earlier this year on Sunday Night and Dak burned me against the Steelers. But it’s worth reiterating his Primetime record stands at 27-11 and he’s 2-0 on the year.
Throughout his career. Brock Purdy has been called a system QB. A guy who can’t do much if he was’t surrounded with the best arsenal of weapons in the NFL. This year it feels like the volume is turned down on that narrative. Maybe it’s because he made a great run in the playoffs, maybe it’s because CMC has been out all year. Regardless his haters have been less vocal, but the buzz is coming back around after his 3 interceptions last week, and I think they are now about to come out in the masses.
This is the perfect spot for the Cowboys and very likely their best scheduling situation of the season. Off a Bye, getting SF who was laser focused on avenging their Super Bowl loss, and now dealing with multiple injuries to key players.
Purdy shaming SZN engage.
The Pick: Cowboys +4.5 (-110) FD
Falcons at Buccaneers +2.5 Total 45.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-5
Holy Tampa Bay Deathaneers. Chris Godwin - gone. Mike Evans - out four weeks. And now Bucky? Sheesh.
Honestly, we need to take a moment and pour one out for Godwin. Guy was having a massive season and anytime you see something like this happen it’s just heartbreaking.
When bad new strikes, Steak strikes back. Evans and Godwin combined for nearly 1,000 yards and the next closest receiver has 93 yards on the season.
But this is where Baker thrives. He’s a Tampa guy. He’s a team guy. The defense has been atrocious, but the offense has put up enough points to mask their insufficiencies.
After this game the Bucs play the Chiefs and 49ers, meaning they can very likely go from 4-2 to 4-6 before you sit down for a Turkey Dinner.
This is your season Todd Bowles. This is your moment Baker.
Steak is betting on them to grind out a win, or at least a cover when it matters most. Not to mention a revenge spot after losing to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football three weeks ago. Can Kirk repeat his 500+ yard performance? Steak says nay.
The Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-105) FD
Ravens at Browns +8.5 Total 44.5
The people happy to see Deshaun Watson’s injury include 23 (24?) masseuses and the entire city of Cleveland.
We aren’t buying a Disney Movie where Jameis Winston comes in and saves this team. But we are buying him for this game. One shining moment. After this, it’s going to be a lot of sacks and interceptions, but a huge team guy like Jameis has been patiently waiting for a time to shine and now he’s got it.
More importantly the Browns defense is notorious for playing significantly better at home than on the road. After three consecutive games on the road, they came home and held Joe Burrow to 14 points. Now they get another home game to stifle the hottest offense in the NFL.
Close your eyes, hold your nose, take the Browns.
The Pick: Browns +8.5 (105) FD
Bears at Commanders +3 Total 43.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-5
After Jayden Daniels went down, Marcus Mariota came in and lit the Panthers on fire. I mean check out this stat line…
Something we love to lean into is when QBs coming into a game and do well vs. the following week when the opponent has had time to prepare. Sure, Mariota can catch one of the worst defenses. What about after one of the best defenses in the NFL that has a week to prepare for him? We’ll pay to see it.
The Pick: Bears -3 (-105) FD
Come on Over, Over: Saints at Chargers Over 40.5
Chargers coming off a 5 FG and zero touchdown performance Monday Night. Herbert threw for over 300 yards but couldn’t score 6. Don’t see that too often. We think LA can bounce back at home.
Defenses are 2/2 scoring against the Saints with Spencer Rattler.
Per Adam Chernoff - this is a maximum/minimum rest spot, with the Saints getting 10 days of rest from the previous Thursday, and the Chargers getting 6 days from Monday Night’s matchup against the Cardinals.
These spots favor the dog and the over, and we’re calling for points!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9
You can rewatch the stream with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS PLAY:
Boise St at UNLV +3.5 Total 64.5
We have an absolute BANGER of a game Friday Night. I’ll be at a wedding and unfortunately can’t watch. but Steak has been on all over this one since Monday.
We faded the Rebels last week at Oregon St, thinking it may have been a bit of a look ahead spot. Wrong. UNLV might be mini wagons since the “bad news” of their starting QB and RB leaving. All they’ve done since is score 59, 41, 50 and 33 points. Also going 4-1 in that stretch. Now UNLV will face Heisman favorite RB Ashton Jeanty and a 5-1 Boise St.
It’s not fun rooting for defense in this game, but that’s what we’re doing. Dare we say the Friday Night Lights are a bit too bright for both schools. Not to mention Boise just played at Hawaii last week, and UNLV played back-to-back road games. We’re admittedly getting contrarian here, with a splash of reasoning that perhaps these teams run a bit out of gas when the world expects fireworks.
The Pick: Under 64.5 (-105) - DraftKings
Notre Dame vs Navy +13.5
I’ll be boots on ground with my guy Iain Macbets. Haven’t been to an Irish game in years, but their record is pretty good when I’m in attendance, for what it’s worth!
Fading service academies is never fun. If you bet on Notre Dame to have success this season, you likely did so because their schedule was very soft. Looking at it over the summer, you would’ve thought their biggest challenges would be Texas A&M (which they passed) and USC to finish the season. You certainly didn’t expect that Army and Navy would be two of their more challenging opponents, yet here we are. The spread certainly doesn’t agree. The fact that this line is over 10 points is very telling.
A big reason we are backing the Irish here is because the oddsmakers tell us this is an ass whooping. Saying the Irish are two touchdowns better on a neutral is something we didn’t expect, but we don’t think we are the smartest guys in the room. We’ve backed the Irish twice in the last two weeks (-6.5 vs L’Ville and TT O vs Stanford) and are 2-0. Not trying to get greedy, but think we have a good read on this team. The defensive injuries suck, but Riley Leonard and the offense may have figured it out since the BYE week. This Navy defense hasn’t faced many tough opponents all year. We think they’re in for a rude awakening, and the MIDshipmen offense can’t keep up. (see what I did there ;)
The Pick: Notre Dame -13.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Oklahoma at Ole Miss -20.5
The Sooners are a bad football team and let us down against Texas, but we can’t pass on this opportunity to fade Ole Miss. Steak was already selling the hype in Oxford before the season started. Talks of National Championship and Jaxson Dart heisman have almost been completely silenced after losing the last 2/3 to LSU and Kentucky. Now we have them coming out of a BYE week against an Oklahoma team nobody wants no matter the spread.
The Pick: Oklahoma +20.5 (-110) - BetMGM
Northwestern at Iowa -13.5
Neither of us think Iowa is a particularly good team, but whatever cute little party Northwestern had at times this season is officially over. The last time the Wildcats were on the road it was as 11 point underdogs in Maryland and they won outright. They followed that up a 3 point performance at home against Wisconsin, and now have to travel out to Iowa where they’ll face a Hawkeyes team that’s done very well after a loss. We do not care that Iowa has Wisconsin on deck - this is a smash spot for Kirk and the boys.
The Pick: Iowa -13.5 (-115) - Fanduel
Texas Tech at TCU -6.5 - Jovans Best Bet
Two teams meeting in Fort Worth whose bye week came at very different times for them. TTU was rolling before the bye then came out and got stomped by Baylor, while TCU lost 3 of 4 heading into the bye then came out of it with an ugly win at Utah. TTU has vastly overperformed this season (mostly on offense) and I think they will flame out a bit towards the end of the season. Seeing TCU as nearly a TD favorite tells me this might be another one of those spots. TCU’s win at Utah was a tough watch and by no means impressive, but a big confidence boost for a locker room that needed it in the worst way. This game should be a shootout as it always tends to be but offense hasn’t been the problem for TCU this year. TTU’s pass rush has struggled to get home which is music to the ears of Josh Hoover and the TCU offense that knows they can’t run the ball. And even though the Utah offense is pitiful, the TCU defense did show some sign of life against the run last week. 10 years ago nearly to the day TCU hosted TTU in Fort Worth and ran out of TD fireworks when scoring 82 points. They probably won’t top that but the offense just might get the closest to it they will all year.
The Pick: TCU -6.5 (-115) - Fanduel
LSU at Texas A&M -1
This one is all Steak. I personally don’t want to fade LSU right now, but he’s had a great read on both teams so I’m on no place to talk him off.
Steak doesn’t think LSU can duplicate the magic found in their big win from two weeks ago against Ole Miss. A lot of success the Tigers had in that game came from the home crowd. I agree, as I don’t think LSU played well enough to be considered worthy of a win, but Death Valley at night is a real bitch as Lane Kiffin found out.
The atmosphere at Kyle Field is going to be rowdy, and should give this LSU offense plenty of fits. The Aggies have been rolling since they let sharps down in Week 1 vs Notre Dame. The offense has found its groove with new OC Collin Klein, no matter who’s playing QB. Steak says he’s taking the better team at home - simple as that.
The Pick: Texas A&M -1 (-110) - DraftKings
RECAP:
NFL
Titans/Lions UNDER 45 (-110) BetMGM - Degen’s Best Bet
Cowboys +4.5 (-110) FD - Greg’s Best Bet
Buccaneers +2.5 (-105) FD - Steak’s Best Bet
Browns +8.5 (105) FD
Bears -3 (-105) FD
Saints/Chargers OVER 40.5 (-110) FD
CFB
Boise St/UNLV UNDER 64.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -13.5 (-110) BetMGM
Oklahoma +20.5 (-110)
Iowa -13.5 (-120) - FanDuel
TCU -6.5 (-115) - FanDuel
Texas A&M -1 (-110) - DraftKings
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