20 days till kickoff.
20 days till kickoff.
20 days till kickoff.
Keeping true and sprinkling in a trend - we want to talk about BYE week timing. More specifically, when a new coach (or OC) comes in to work with a rookie QB and they don’t get a BYE until late in the season (spoiler alert - Patriots). There are a million things a new coach needs to do when they come in. Not having some extra time to take inventory and make adjustments can pay quite a toll. Nothing ground breaking, but with the amount of turnover of coaches and QBs in today’s NFL it’s certainly worth monitoring, especially on season long bets.
Next week we’ll switch it up a bit and come to you with College Football Futures, before closing out the NFL season with the NFC East and South. Now sit back and enjoy our best bets and previews for the AFC East & South, as well as a featured best bet and write up from one of the sharpest fellas you’ll find on sports betting Twitter, Mister NotMidMajorMatt.
20 days till kickoff!
AFC East:
Divisions played: AFC South and NFC West
Odds to win division:
Bills +165
Jets +170
Dolphins +220
Patriots +2400
Buffalo Bills
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1500
Back to the drawing board for the Buffalo Bills. Another year of high expectations, another defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Despite regular season success against the Chiefs, when push comes to shove Andy Reid has broken Sean McDermott’s will. In the rivalry the Bills have won 3 of 4 regular season games, but 0 of 3 playoff games. Not fun! At this point McDermott’s brain is in a pretzel and no matter what decision he makes in crunch time, it’s the wrong one.
Even if the Bills make the late FG in the Divisional Round, you just know KC would find a way to win. Not to mention the straight to DVD (or Peacock Streaming) Damar Hamlin fake punt heard round the world. The whole stadium was on pins and needles, just waiting for the inevitable pain. Until McDermott is gone it’s just impossible to bet this team to do anything meaningful outside of the regular season.
On a happier note for the Mafia - as long as Josh Allen is under center, you at least have a chance to get to 4th quarter agony in a playoff game!
Allen will see plenty of change this year: gone is his favorite target and developing cancer, Stefon Diggs, as they take a $30M cap hit. Gabe Davis left too. They added Keon Coleman (FSU) in the draft who seems like he’s going to be a ton of fun. Not to mention a guy we love to have a big year, Khalil Shakir, along with Knox and Kincaid.
The Bills had massive injuries at every level on defense last year and were still able to squeak out the Division in Week 18. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier for the D going into 2024. The entire secondary was lost in free agency. We trust McDermott to get the job done in the regular season, but at the end of the day it’s tough to put your hard earned money on a guy who coaches not to lose, instead of to win.
FEATURED BEST BET FROM OUR BUDDY NOTMIDMAJORMATT:
Let's dive into one of my favorite future bets for the 2024 NFL season from a win/loss perspective: the Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins at +130.
The Bills seem to be the least talked-about team in the AFC East heading into this season, and there are some reasons for the lack of media attention. Buffalo lost one of the biggest divas in the NFL, Stefon Diggs, and despite not making any big splashes in free agency, they also lost their #2 receiver in Gabe Davis. The perception of Buffalo is that they will be worse off without their top two receivers from last year, but I disagree. Joe Brady has already discussed running 12 personnel this offseason, which I believe will be their primary formation throughout the season. Buffalo drafted Kincaid and still boasts a solid TE in Knox. They brought in Curtis Samuel to pair with Khalil Shakir and drafted Keon Coleman from FSU. Most of the time, Buffalo will have three receivers on the field who are at least 6'3", a matchup no defense will be comfortable with. They will also feature one of the NFL's best gadget players in Curtis Samuel, who still possesses 4.3 speed, paired with Khalil Shakir, a third-year player known for making critical plays for Buffalo.
Some might say I'm overly optimistic about the Bills' receiving corps given their lack of continuity, and I wouldn't entirely disagree. However, my main reason for being sold on the Bills' offense is James Cook's performance in the second half of last season under Joe Brady. Many argue that Ken Dorsey, who was fired mid-season, was a scapegoat for McDermott's lack of success. Dorsey's offense ranked highly on paper but often looked disjointed on the field. With Brady at the helm, the Bills' offense showed improvement in yards and points per game, leading to a division title with a 6-1 finish down the stretch.
The Bills' defense struggled with injuries last year, especially in the secondary, but still managed to perform admirably. They have bolstered their defensive line and linebacker depth, though questions remain about the secondary. However, Buffalo's offensive style and strong running game with Cooks and Allen can compensate for defensive weaknesses. Brady showed he is willing to lean on the run game to protect his defense at times, a trait more coaches should acknowledge. Brady ran one of the slowest tempos after taking over and I do not expect much change. Buffalo faces a tough schedule, particularly early in the season with five primetime games in the first six weeks and a challenging three-game road stretch against Baltimore, Houston, and New York. You could argue this is the toughest 3-game schedule in the entire NFL. While I am pessimistic about their early season success, I remain very optimistic about their later schedule, including a favorable matchup against the 49ers after a bye week. San Francisco will come into the game playing back-to-back road games, after playing at Green Bay, which will surely be an important game in the NFC.
Regarding the divisional competition, New York and Miami are strong contenders with their respective win totals, but I remain confident in Buffalo's ability to maintain their status as the class of the AFC East with McDermott and Allen leading the charge. Both opponents sit at 9.5-win totals ranging from -130 -> -165 to their overs. I am not a Saleh guy, never will be. Am I willing to pay that price for a 40-year-old QB coming off a torn Achilles and is putting minimal time in with his new offense in the off-season? Absolutely not. McDaniels is an offensive genius, I have learned Tua is just not that guy. Their defense lost a lot more than people realize; all facts shadowed by having 2 of the fastest receivers on the planet on the same offense.
Am I alone in this prediction? Judging by the initial reactions, it seems so. But that only means more potential for profit.
Best Bet:
Josh Allen MVP (+800) - Greg
Bills OVER 10.5 Wins (+120) - NotMidMajorMatt
Khalil Shakir OVER 675.5 Yards (-115) - Steak
James Cook OPOY (+5000) - Degen
Miami Dolphins
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2400
If you’re a runner, or just so happen to find yourself incredibly bored on the third Monday in April, you’ve probably had a chance to watch the start of the Boston Marathon. Every year someone is out the gate HOT. Too fast. He’s not a complete nobody, but you can tell he isn’t winning, you’re fascinated to see how long he can push it. Red line till crash. At mile 12 he’s fading, by mile 18 he’s in big trouble, and mile 21 he’s an afterthought. He is the embodiment of the Miami Dolphins.
2022: Started 8-3. Finished 1-5
2023: Started 9-3. Finished 2-3. Better, but still let the Division and a Home Playoff game slip away.
Can we expect the same thing this year? Absolutely.
The Dolphins last six games of the 2024 season include FOUR playoff teams from last year and two games against the Jets. Not great when you realize the Fins were 1-5 against playoff teams last year. It gets worse: they’re only an underdog seven times this season and five of them are the last 6 weeks (Sharp). But what they lack against the big dogs they make up for in punishing the small cats. They win the games they’re supposed to, but struggle to take the next step.
Overall the Dolphins have a very strong roster but we are ALWAYS wary of a team whose biggest weakness is in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Fans anxiously wait for Tua to take the next step. He’s got every weapon a young QB could ask for and now he just got paid. Fins are all in, let’s see how it goes…
Luckily, Mike McDaniel’s strength is running the ball. They were the #1 red zone rushing team last year. De’Von Archane is healthy and it’s worth revisiting his stat line from last year because it was a video game. 7.8 yards a carry. 130 touches and almost 1,000 yards and 11 TD’s. Third round draft pick Jaylen Wright (RB, Tennessee) is worth a fantasy flyer as Mostert is one year older and one more year broken down.
DC Vic Fangio might seem like a big loss, but the autopsy report suggests it was just a culture issue and he never meshed. Anthony Weaver from Baltimore comes in to lead the defense, but until this team proves they have the ability to show up against the NFL’s best, we aren’t buying.
Best Bets:
Dolphins UNDER 9.5 Wins (+100) - Steak
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 4-13
2024 Win Total: 4.5
SB Odds: +25000
The Jerod Mayo Era begins. It’s an all new staff and culture in New England, starting with Alex Van Pelt (Browns) as OC. Stefanski called the plays, so this will be an added and unfamiliar responsibility for Van Pelt. He did thrive last year with Flacco, which may bode well for rookie Drake Maye (UNC). However, it appears Maye’s debut will be delayed as Jacoby Brissett is expected to start. The Patriots rebuild is heavily focused on offense, as their first five draft picks were on the offensive side of the ball.
As we alluded to in the intro, it certainly won’t be easy for an entirely new coaching staff to figure things out with two new QB’s and likely making the switch from Brissett to Maye at some point mid-season. The difficulty will be amplified without having a BYE until Week 14. That’s DECEMBER 5th! Belichick didn’t leave much to work with as the Pats aren’t favored in a single game this season. Such a shame for a team 31 franchises were tormented by for two decades.
Somehow, last year New England got worse on offense after firing Matt Patricia as the OC. That should tell you how much disarray 2024 might hold. One of the worst O-lines, no WR’s, below average running back, Drake Maye and a new HC with ZERO experience. Fun stuff! One of the few points of excitement is Ja’Lynn Polk (Washington) who will likely be the #1 option.
Typically, when you finish last in the division you get play-in games that should be easy. Not here, as the Pats get the Bengals, Chargers, and Bears - giving them the second hardest schedule in the NFL.
The lone bright spot is a fantastic secondary. Christian Gonzalez (CB) is a stud. It’s obviously tough to bet a team’s under after they seemingly hit rock bottom. But as bad a Belichick was at the end he still had the defensive ready. Now, Matt Judon just left. By every metric the D should be worse and you have an offense looking to build from the ground up with minimal talent.
Best Bets:
Patriots UNDER 4.5 Wins (+105)
Patriots Worst NFL Record +300 - Greg
Stevenson UNDER 800.5 Rushing Yards (-115) - Degen
New York Jets
2023 Record: 7-10
2024 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1800
Everyone has their own story they can recite to you in clear memory and vivid detail, as if it just happened yesterday. Where were you for 9/11?
(…not that one…)
The one where Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles on the 4th play of the game.
We were there!
The Meadowlands was shaking. Grown men were crying. It was amazing.
And then…we got to see the pain - in real time - of what it’s like to be a Jets fan.
Despite Zach Wilson and other terrible QBs leading the way, the Jets didn’t quit. Week-in, week-out they showed up and played hard while the QB went 5-14 for 120 yards and two INTs. Massive amount of grit from the coaching staff and players. They easily could have thrown in the towel and no one would have blamed them.
You can’t overlook how impressive it is that Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian pulled off SEVEN wins. They were the worst offense in passing efficiency, on 3rd down, and in the Red Zone (Sharp).
Garrett Wilson has put up back to back 1,000 yard season catching passes from trash cans. The Jets brought in some new toys for Rodgers. Mike Williams will try to stay healthy, and they drafted Malachi Corley (Western Kentucky). The O-line got some help too with Tyron Smith (Cowboys) and John Simpson (Raiders).
The already stellar defense added Javon Kinlaw, but the Hassan Reddick deal is falling apart, which would be a big blow.
One of the easiest schedules in NFL with an especially easy start. After the game at San Fran, the Jets could very easily rattle off four wins against Tennessee, New England, Denver, and Minnesota.
Get your futures in. It’s now or never. J-E-T-S! JETS! JETS! JETS!
Best Bet:
Breece Hall OPOY (+1400) - Greg & Steak
Super Bowl (+1800) - Degen, Steak & Greg
AFC East (+180)
AFC South
Divisions Played: AFC East and NFC North
Odds to win division:
Texans +105
Jaguars +270
Colts +310
Titans +950
Houston Texans
2023 Record: 10-7
2024 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1500
We love you Houston! Our prize pig from the 2023 season. The Degen Fam cashed in on the Texans to win the Division (+1000) and CJ Stroud OROY (+1000) as documented in last years newsletter. The Texans awards didn’t stop there as they also had Will Anderson as the DROY. DeMeco Ryans took a 3 win team to 10 wins and won a playoff game, how he didn’t win coach of the year is beyond us.
For an encore, they added a ton of big names to an already stacked roster. Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, and Joe Mixon. Can’t say we love all of it, though. This isn’t your daddy’s Joe Mixon, but it’s still an upgrade. What’s more important is the O-line. 4 of 5 starters missed significant time from injury last year and they will enter the 2024 season at full health.
Stroud proved to be the real deal, and he got some more weapons offense. However, we don’t think there was a bigger “subtraction by addition” acquisition than Stefon Diggs, especially with a young core of guys who appeared to be coming into their own. Nico Collins and Tank Dell were thriving, so it will be interesting when a grumpy old man comes into the fold.
The interesting thing with the AFC South is that the team expected to win rarely does:
2023 - It was expected to be the Jags year but the Texans spoiled the party.
2022 - everyone loved Matt Ryan and the Colts. LOL emoji.
Let’s see how the Texans fare when they’re in teams crosshairs as opposed to an underdog. Their schedule will be significantly tougher. In fact it’s the biggest year over year boost in strength of schedule (Sharp). We aren’t brave enough to fade, but we also aren’t buying the hype.
Best Bets:
No Bets
Indianapolis Colts
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +5500
All things considered Shane Steichen had a fantastic first year as head coach. In 2022 the Colts went 4-12-1, a year later he got them a literal single play away from winning the division with a backup QB while their star RB Jonathan Taylor missed significant time. As Indy was one of the most injured teams from last year. Out of all the positives in favor of Steichen, the biggest vote of confidence should be how much the Eagles offense faltered in his absence.
Indianapolis only got two full games out of Anthony Richardson and it certainly changed the game plan/strategy. They appeared to be comfortable with any lead and resorted to running the ball. Which is great…when you have the lead. Gardner Minshew isn’t exactly the guy you want if your game plan, and season, revolves around building an early lead. The Colts were 8-0 if leading at half, 1-7 if losing (Sharp).
Adonai Mitchell (Georgia) is added to the WR core with Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. And on defense they sport a very strong front 7, but secondary is a major concern.
The Colts embark on a fairly easy schedule that’s front loaded with big games which could pave the way for a strong push for a playoff spot late in the season.
But, we have our eye on another underdog for the AFC South Crown…
Best Bet:
Colts OVER 8.5 Wins (-105) - Steak & Greg
Anthony Richardson Comeback Player of the Year (+900) - Steak
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4500
In year one Doug Peterson course corrected for Urban Meyer, winning the division and a playoff game. In year two he failed to do either, while missing the playoffs entirely.
Now we embark on year three. There is reason for excitement as Trevor Lawrence returns healthy to lead the charge. Sure - they lost some guys, but they added Florida native, Gabe Davis, and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) in the first round. The plan appears to be to let the ball FLY.
Last year wasn’t all bad but the end was terrible. The Jags started 8-3, everything was peaches and rainbows. Then the TLaw injuries started to compound.
A high ankle sprain, a concussion, shoulder, knee. They went 1-5 to close the season.
Lawrence is another young, unproven QB to find themselves getting PAID. 5 years, $275M. It’s incredibly risky and some teams will certainly get burned, but we don’t hate this one. Something about that comeback win against the Chargers in the 2022 playoffs says this guy is worth the risk. But then again, no one fumbles the football more than TLaw. Over his first three years he’s averaged SEVEN fumbles a year.
On defense the Jags certainly had their own set of problems, but Ryan Neilson (Falcons) comes in to resolve the issues. Last year the weakness was upfront so they added Arik Armstead (49ers) and drafted Maason Smith (LSU). Problem solved? We’ll see, but at least it was addressed. This year the problem will be the secondary, which makes us like the “Let it Fly” narrative on offense even more.
The Jaguars schedule will be a grind, but they should be able to get some late momentum after a Week 12 BYE. In the first 12 games they play 8 playoff teams from last year. They also get hit with back-to-back international games but who cares, this is London’s team, baby!
Best Bet:
Jaguars AFC South (+275) - Steak
Jags OVER 8.5 Wins (-115) - Steak
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (+100) - Steak
Brian Thomas Jr. Most Rookie Receiving Yards (+1200) - Greg
Trevor Lawrence MVP (+4500) - Steak
TLaw Most Passing Yards (+2200) - Degen & Greg
Tennessee Titans
2023 Record: 6-11
2024 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +15000
Nothing like closing out a newsletter with a Stinker. In our opinion one of the worst firings last year was Mike Vrable. Granted they got worse year over year…
12 wins → 7 wins → 6 wins
After letting AJ Brown walk, things were never the same. You can’t pin that on Vrable though because the man did a ton with Derrick Henry and minimal talent. He got Ryan Tannehill to an AFC Championship for christ sake!
Former Bengals OC, Brian Callahan, comes in to captain the sinking ship. He did great in Cincinnati however, he had Joe Burrow throwing to Chase, Higgins and Boyd. Now, he’s got Will Levis throwing to DHop, Ridley, and Boyd. At best, one of those guys works out. At worst, you buy a bottle of cologne from Will Levis at the Nashville mall in December.
They brought in Tony Pollard which sounds nice at first until you realize he wasn’t able to find any success behind a much better offensive line in Dallas. We do love Tajee Spears, though.
Callahan didn’t call plays in Cincy, and will be calling them in Tennessee. Along with being the HC. Massive uptick in responsibility. Massive downtick in offensive talent. What could go wrong? Before we get too negative, Callahan did do a fantastic job with Jake Browing after the Burrow injury. An early BYE to recalibrate with a young QB and a lot of new personnel will certainly be helpful, but the Titans issues run deeper than skill positions. They bring in a new Center to a struggling O-line and new CB’s to a bad defense. It’s going to be really tough for them to find their footing this season.
Every other team in the AFC South has a lot to be excited about and Titans feel like “The Puppy Who Lost His Way”. Without Vrable and Derrick Henry they have lost their identity. Add a very tough schedule and we don’t see anything but an opportunity to fade as Tennessee looks to rebuild. Feels like a team full of free agents who are happy to collect a fat paycheck and not care about winning.
Best Bet:
Titans UNDER 6.5 Wins (-130) - Steak
Calvin Ridley UNDER 5.5 TD Receptions (-150) - Degen
College Football Futures coming to you next Friday.
Then NFC East and South.
Then our weekly plays.
It’s close boys and girls, we made it.
RECAP
AFC East Bets
Josh Allen MVP (+800) - Greg
Bills OVER 11.5 Wins (+120) - NotMidMajorMatt
Khalil Shakir OVER 675.5 Yards (-115) - Steak
James Cook OPOY (+5000) - Degen
Dolphins UNDER 9.5 Wins (+100) Steak
Patriots UNDER 4.5 Wins (+105) - Greg
Patriots Worst NFL Record +300 - Greg
Stevenson UNDER 800.5 Rushing Yards (-115) - Degen
Breece Hall OPOY (+1400) - Greg & Steak
Super Bowl (+1800) - Degen, Steak & Greg
Jets AFC East (+180) - Steak & Greg
AFC South Bets
Colts OVER 8.5 Wins (-105) - Steak & Greg
Anthony Richardson Comeback Player of the Year (+900) - Steak
Jaguars AFC South (+275) - Steak
Jags OVER 8.5 Wins (-115) - Steak
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 750.5 Receiving Yards (+100) - Steak
Brian Thomas Jr. Most Rookie Receiving Yards (+1200) - Greg
Trevor Lawrence MVP (+4500) - Steak
TLaw Most passing yards (+2200) - Degen & Greg
Titans UNDER 6.5 Wins (-130) - Steak
Calvin Ridley UNDER 5.5 TD Receptions (-150) - Degen