The Beasts of the East! This breakdowns got everything you could ask for - Super Bowl winners, concussions, Comeback Player of the Year locks, MVP candidates’s, concussions, Defensive Player of the Year looks, first head coach fired, and more concussions. Let’s go!
NFC East:
Divisions played: AFC East, NFC West
Odds to win division:
Philadelphia Eagles -115
Dallas Cowboys +175
New York Giants +700
Washington Commanders +1300
Dallas Cowboys
2022 Record: 12-5
2023 Win Total: 12-5
SB Odds: +1300
We can’t even begin to discuss the Dallas Cowboys without addressing the literal elephant in the room: Mike McCarthy.
He’s entering year four as head coach.
Year 1: 6-10 (Dak broke his ankle)
Year 2: 12-5; 0-1 in Playoffs (Dak ran a QB draw with 14 seconds left)
Year 3: 12-5; 1-1 in Playoffs (Beat Bucs, lost to 49ers)
You can call it a lot of things, but shockingly it is progress. Year over year getting better and going further. But it doesn’t feel like progress, does it? It feels like McCarthy’s on the chopping block, and Vegas would agree. Jerry Jones is breathing down the big mans neck and you could make an argument that Mike McCarthy’s leash is tighter than his belt going into the 2023 season.
McCarthy will take over the play calling duties after Kellen Moore and the Cowboys went their separate ways last year, but that’s not a good thing. Under Kellen Moore Dallas had the best Red Zone offense in the league last year.
This week Dallas settled the Zack Martin (RG) contract dispute and didn’t take the bait on resigning Zeke. Jerry is finally figuring out that the NFL in 2023 is way different than 1993.
Dak has fade written all over him for us, but for once this team isn’t about offensive firepower. It’s about the defense. Dan Quinn is the textbook example of a guy who struggled as a head coach, but absolutely thrives as a defensive coordinator. Micah Parsons is the favorite to win defensive player of the year (+600), and they added Stephon Gilmore.
If this offense can win games, the defense can win a Championship… but not with McCarthy at the helm.
Best Bet:
McCarthy First Coach Fired +500 (Steak)
New York Giants
2022 Record: 9-7
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +4800
Here’s a fun one from the Warren Sharp Preview: Pre-Daboll the Giants went five years without a winning record. What’s really amazing is not one second over those five years did they even have a winning record. That’s right, five straight years of an 0-1 start, and it only went downhill from there. Then last year Brian Daboll enters. They start 1-0. And they never looked back. Maintaining a winning record for the entirety of the 2022 season and even winning a Playoff game. Night and Day.
It gets more impressive - he did it while digging the Giants out of contract hell. Remember Kenny Golladay? Last year he was a $21M+ cap hit in while raking in a whopping six catches. Most importantly for gamblers the G-Men had the best record ATS (against the spread) in the NFL last year covering 13/17 games.
It appears the dark days are behind the Giants, but it certainly isn’t sunny skies going into the 2023 season. After a messy dispute the team did settle on a deal with superstar running back Saquon Barkley. The signed, and likely overpaid, Danny Dimes to a four year extension. They brought in one of the best Tight Ends in the NFL in Darren Waller via trade. They are building back, slow and steady.
We are on opposite sides of the fence for this one here at the Degenerate. Despite the positive trajectory for the Giants their O-Line is still terrible and their secondary isn’t much better. This team has a long way to go to being a true competitor in the NFC, but maybe… just maybe, they are worth a small sprinkle to catch the Eagles off a Super Bowl loss hangover.
Best Bet:
Giants Under 7.5Wins -110 (Steak)
Giants to win the Division +700 (Dino)
Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Record: 14-3
2023 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +800
If you were here last year and read our Eagles write-up you likely made a decent chunk of change riding the Birds. See the note below from our 2022 mailing:
Wanna know the funny part? We didn’t take it. Geniuses. Guess that’s why there’s nine years of college education between the three of us and only one degree. The Eagles got a bit too trendy come the start of last season and we got gun shy. Egg on our face because boy ohh boy did the Eagles arrive last year.
They finished #7 ALL-TIME in 1H points. They led by a net positive 121 points going into the 2H. Fun fact: Minshew threw more passes while trailing in the 2H than Hurts did - and he only started two games!
You could make a very good argument that top to bottom the Eagles have the best roster in the NFL. They added a stacked draft class, most notably Bulldog teammates Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, to an already ferocious Defense. They lost Miles Sanders but added D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny in return.
The only real arguments you could make against the Eagles is that they played one of the easiest schedule in the NFL last year, but absolutely no one should be doubting them after coming up a play or two short from knocking off Mahomes/Reid in the Super Bowl.
Sirianni lost both his OC and DC to head coaching spots, but the man has excelled at keeping the game plan simple and executing. We don’t see that changing.
Best Bets:
Win NFC East -115 (Jake)
Eagles Over 10.5 (+105)
Washington Commanders
2022 Record: 8-8-1
2023 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +6500
Why is Eric Bieniemy (OC) in Washington? Honestly, why would he leave Kansas City? The man spent ten years under Andy Reid, won two Super Bowls, got to run the offense lead by Patrick Mahomes and he left it all to be the OC for Ron Rivera and Sam Howell. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Unless…
The biggest knock against Bieniemy when interviewing for head coaching positions is that he hasn’t been proven. Fair enough, it doesn’t take a genius to win with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. But he could have gone anywhere he wanted this offseason as an Offensive Coordinator, there where plenty of more attractive opportunities. Yet he chose the worst offenses in the NFL, with one of the worst QB rooms. Essentially stacking the deck against himself in order to do everything he can to prove he’ s worthy of a head coaching spot. He also knows that Rivera is on a very hot seat and is likely out sooner rather than later. Bieniemy is either playing chess or he just completely sabotaged himself. Either way he’ll probably be back in KC by 2028. Dan Snyder selling the team only fuels the fire that sits directly under Ron Riveras ass.
The Commanders are favored just once in their first ten games and they don’t have a BYE will Week 14. Things could get real ugly real quick.
This Commanders team is a prime recipe for Unders throughout the season. The worst offense in the NFL, but a quality Defense (especially if Chase Young can come back healthy). Sam Howell has a few weapons in Jahan Dotson and Terry McClaurin, but it’s Sam Howell.
Washington was bad last year. Brian Robinson coming out to Many Men was the highlight of their season. Their schedule gets significantly harder and we want no part of them. Laying off their under specifically because we like Ron to get fired early and the team could rally behind Bieniemy.
Best Bet:
Ron Rivera First Coach Fired +700
AFC East
Divisions Played: NFC East, AFC West
Odds to win division:
Bills +120
Jets +250
Dolphins +290
Patriots +800
Buffalo Bills
2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1000
Going into last year the Bills were everyones favorite new toy. They came up 13 seconds short of beating the Chiefs and everybody thought 2022 was theirs. They had a great regular season going 13-3 and winning their final seven games. You got the sense that the Demar Hamlin** incident was either going to be a rallying point to a Super Bowl Championship, or too heavy of an emotional roller coaster that resulted in an early exit, and unfortunately for Bills Mafia it was the latter.
The start of 2023 feels very different. Way less hype, way less of the public darling, way more value! Last year they were the favorite entering the year to win the Super Bowl at +600, now they come in at +1000 and not much has changed.
They still have one of the best defenses, a lot of their setbacks last year came from some injuries in the secondary and Von Miller - all of which are back on track.
Ken Dorsey has a full year of experience under his belt as OC and there is no reason for this offense not to continue to thrive. Everyones got their eyes on James Cook as their fantasy football value guy, but don’t sleep on former Patriot Damien Harris. Nothing better than a guy with his chip on his shoulder. Oddly enough the Bills took tight end Dalton Kinkade (Utah) in the first round. It could make for some very interesting matchups with him and Dawson Knox on offense. One things for damn sure Josh Allen will have weapons a plenty.
Where things will get really tough for the Bills is their heavy schedule of opponents. Just look at their opposing QB’s this year: Mahomes, Rodgers (x2), Tua (x2), Herbert, Hurts, Burrow, TLaw, Dak Prescott (kidding). Murder’s row. That’s not including a revenge game for Daboll.
No matter. Iron sharpens iron.
Best Bets:
Bills Super Bowl +1000
Bills to win AFC East +120
Bills Over 10.5 -145
Josh Allen MVP +750 (Steak and Dino)
**Everyone and we mean everyone think’s Hamlin to win Comeback Player of the year is free as air. It probably is, but we can’t do it.
Miami Dolphins
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2100
What a roller coaster season the Dolphins had last year. Basically when Tua played, they won. When Tua got concussed or missed time from after concussion, they lost. After starting 8-3 they limped into the playoffs at 9-8 with Skylar Thompson. As much as you may want to make fun of him, he more than held his own in the Playoffs against the Bills and proved that head coach Mike McDaniel might be the real deal.
The offense certainly has firepower with Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but safety valve Mike Gisicki (TE) left the team in free agency.
In our opinion the big story for this team is Vic Fangio coming in to run the D. He’s another one of those guys who struggled as head coach, but has everything it takes to put together an elite defense. And this D is stocked with talent. Well… it was. The Jalen Ramsey injury will be a setback, but they did draft Cam Smith (South Carolina) for added depth at the CB position so not all hope is lost.
Like everyone in this division the Dolphins are up against a brutal schedule, but we like Tua’s chances to stay healthy. Nothing crazy, but a confident Fins Up.
Best Bet:
Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins -115 (Steak and Degen)
New England Patriots
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6000
Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Patriots haven’t finished in last place in the division since pre-Tom Brady in the year 2000, and it looks like their time is up. In phase one of the Tom Brady rebuild New England went out and signed (grossly overpaid) a ton of offensive guys to regain their competitive edge, that failed. Now they have moved towards the draft and slowly rebuild - a much more realistic recipe for success.
The Pats added 12 players in the draft. Most notably Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), but a ton potential to be that next wave of “Belichick guys” on Defense and at O-line. They also added Mike Gesicki and Juju, and Devonte Parker… and I fell asleep typing that sentence. Nothing, they did nothing relevant in free agency.
The biggest move for the Patriots was releasing the human version of hot dog water, Matt Patricia. Bill O’Brien comes in to lead the offense and at least Mac Jones has a fighting chance again. He can manage the game. Rhamondre Stevenson can carry the load. The Defense can make the big plays when it counts to keep them in it. None of those are unrealistic expectations, but they are when you look at their schedule.
The Patriots have the hardest schedule in the NFL this year. They had 8 wins last year. The QB’s in those games? Zak Wilson (x2), Mitch Trubisky, Skylar Thompson, Goff, Brissett, Sam Ehlinger. If you don’t know who any of those people are - Congratulations, you probably living a happy and fulfilling life.
We want to fade the Patriots here, but we have too much PTSD from Belichick over the last twenty years.
Best Bet:
No Bet
New York Jets
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +1800
What do you get when a former MVP joins forces with the worst offense in the NFL for over a decade? Hopefully, for Jets fans, the end to one of the longest current playoff drought. Thats right. It’s been twelve years since the infamous Bart Scott meme* was born. Twelve long years of butt fumbles, Ryan Fitzpatricks’s, Sam Darnold’s, and Zak Wilson’s.
The first thing that came to our mind when the Aaron Rodgers news broke was when he told the people of Green Bay, Wisconsin to “Relax” after a poor Packers start in 2014. Good luck trying that one with the NYC media, buddy.
The Jets start the season with a brutal schedule. Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles in the first six weeks of the season.
An early Bye should help them recalibrate. Although their schedule of opponents is difficult, their travel plans are an absolute joke. Somehow (Goodell!) the Jets don’t travel at all to start the season. Seriously, the Jets literally play outside the Meadowland twice before Week 10.
In 2022 one of our favorite bets was the Jets Under 6.5 wins, and we’ve never been so wrong while being so right. Sure they started 7-4, but they finished 0-6 and Zak Wilson was a bust. Still stings a bit.
It certainly feels like Rodgers is the missing piece. As bad as last year was the guy has still won 2 of the last 3 MVP awards. Now you give him a fantastic Defense, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall/Dalvin Cook? Jet fans are confident that the drought is over, but we think they choke on sand for at least another year.
Best Bet:
Jets Under 9.5 Wins
*The Jets went on to lose this game to the Steelers
Below is our quick schedule of future posts (subject to change):
August 19th - College Football Pt. 2: Big 12 and Pac 12
August 24th - College Football Pt. 3: SEC
August 25th - College Football Week 0
August 31st - College Football Week 1
September 1st - NFL Pt. 4: AFC West and NFC North
Once we hit Week One of the NFL we’ll be buttoned up and back to the regular scheduled programming of one per week. But until then let’s keep cranking on some futures.
RECAP
McCarthy First Coach Fired +500 (Steak)
Giants Under 7.5 Wins -110 (Steak)
Giants to win the Division +700 (Dino)
Win NFC East -115 (Jake)
Eagles Over 11.5 +105
Ron Rivera First Coach Fired +700 (Degen & Dino)
Bills Super Bowl +1000 (Steak)
Bills to win AFC East +120
Bills Over 10.5 -145
Josh Allen MVP +750 (Steak and Dino)
Dolphins Over 9.5 -110 (Steak)
Jets Under 9.5 Wins +100 (Steak & Dino)