The NFL Season starts TOMORROW!
Week 1 Newsletter will be going out Friday.
HERE…WE…GO!
NEW SHOW ALERT!
The Degenerate crew will be hosting a Thursday Night Football Pregame Show on the Pikkit Sports YouTube Channel from 7pm EST - Kickoff.
We’ve had a great time hosting Happy Hours all summer. Now we’re talking straight ball during the season. Be sure to subscribe and get notified every time we go live. Download Pikkit and track your wagers. Use promo code “DEGEN” when you do.
AFC East
Divisions played: AFC North and NFC South
Odds to win division:
Bills -260
Patriots +500
Dolphins +750
Jets +1600
Buffalo Bills
2024 Record: 13-4
2025 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +750
January 10th, 1954. General Foods introduces the Kool-Aid man. Over the next several decades we would see him break thousands of brick walls. The commercials are a thing of the past, but every year in the AFC Playoffs Andy Reid plays the part of the Kool-Aid man and the brick wall is Sean McDermotts brain.
No matter what McDermott does against the Chiefs it’s not enough. It doesn’t matter what decision he makes, it’s the wrong one. Come January, Andy Reid is deep inside his head and at this point it’s hard to believe it will ever change.
Case and point: emotions are high. The crowd is amped. And McDermott runs a fake punt to a backup safety.
Look, I’m DYING to bet this team to win the Super Bowl. D-Y-I-N-G! The good people of Buffalo have experienced enough pain for one lifetime.
However, the reality is that as long as the Bills play in the AFC, they have to go through the Chiefs to get their shot and they can’t beat the Chiefs in the Playoffs.
Win in the regular season. Lose in the post-seaon. Rinse, repeat.
McDermott is entering his 9th year and obviously I’m over exaggerating his capability (or lack there of). He’s more than a competent coach, but the narrative of “this is the year we get past the Chiefs” is beyond overplayed, making it tough to believe that this year will be any different.
Josh Allen is coming off an MVP season and he might be the best player in the NFL. His playoff stats immediately shut down any narrative that he might be a part of the problem.
25 TD’s, 4 INT’s in his playoff carrer. The defense is the problem. McDermott is supposed to be a defensive minded head coach. Ipso facto - McDermott is the problem.
I’m not saying the Bills will never win the Super Bowl, I’m not even saying McDermott won’t win it. Hell, look at Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Sometimes it just takes a new setting. And deep down I don’t see the Bills winning it with McDermott as the coach.
The defense did make some big improvements. Brining in Joey Bosa (EDGE) as well as few other solid players on the defensive front. Their first FIVE picks were all on defense with Maxwell Hairston (CB, Kentucy) and T.J. Sanders (DT, South Carolina) at the top of the board.
In 2024 they led the NFL at +24 in turnovers. PLUS TWENTY FOUR! That is absurd and unlikely to repeat, but it’s tough to see the Bills regressing especially when you look at their schedule.
The weapons on offense leave a lot to be desired, but that was the case last year. Josh Allen just makes it work.
You wanna bet Allen to repeat as MVP? Sure.
Bills to go over their win total? Why not.
Win the AFC East? HAVE A DAY!
Win the Super Bowl? Not while Kansas City is having their moment. Not from us.
Buffalo has the 5th easiest schedule and all of their biggest games are at home. Bengals, Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs. It’s looking like another top seed in the playoffs.
This is the Bills final season at Highmark Stadium. Maybe it’s the venue that cursed. Knock it down. Fire McDermott.
Bury the football. And next year is the year!
The Picks:
None (but always rooting for Buffalo)
Miami Dolphins
2024 Record: 8-9
2025 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +8000
This Dophins write-up could be two sentences and people would be satisfied.
That’s how little people care about them. It’s fade or nothing from the general public and sharps alike.
Mike McDaniels shtick feels like it’s run his course. He’s the overwhelming favorite to be the first coach fired.
Introverted and quirky has turned to autistic and confused.
It’s tough to determine who’s suffered more brain damage in Miami over the last 4 years between McDaniel and Tua.
Believe it or not, some of us are actually Tua guys. Not naming names, but more than one of us took him to win the MVP last year. When he’s on the field he’s actually legit, but the problem is his health.
5 seasons
1 playoff appearance
4 concussions
When he was on the field in 2024 the Fins went 6-5. When he wasn’t they were 2-4. The backups were a mashup of Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley with a sprinkle of Tim Boyle. This year Zach Wilson and Quinn Eweres are the backups which could mean more of the same.
They desperately need two things if they want Tua to avoid yet another concussion and have the season go off the rails:
The rushing game returns to what it was in 2023. Achane was everyone’s fantasy darling going into 2024. He wasn’t terrible but the explosive plays were gone.
The offensive line can’t be one of the worst in the league.
Not exactly breaking news, but it’s worth pointing out because neither thing is likely to happen.
The biggest concern is O-line and how it impacts Tua.
In the last three years, his OL has the #2 highest rate of holding penalties. The #1 fastest time to sack of any OL... the #1 highest rate of RB runs stuffed at the line... the #1 worst short yardage rushing conversion rate. - Warren Shap
Tyreek Hill is another year older. The teams 2nd leading reciever was TE Jonnu Smith who was traded to Pittsburgh. It opens the door for Waddle to have a legit season, so if you’re looking for a guy to back it’s probably him.
The pass rush is strong with Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb returning from injury. Chop Robinson broke out to a great rookie season, they just signed Matthew Judon and drafting Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan) in the first round all helps to bolster the Front 7. The secondary is a different story as it could be one of the worst in the league. Trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick cost them Jalen Ramsey and there really isn’t anything positive to say about the current unit.
Miami typically beats up on inferior opponents and loses to the top dogs.
The problem is that every year they slip closer to the inferior opponents terriroty. However, they play the 9th easiest schedule and are favored in eight games, which makes the higher win total start to make more sense.
Miami has been notoriously terrible in the cold and they will have to travel to NY, Pittsburgh, and New England in December.
It’s not every year, but we’ve gotten burned in the past. When Matt Rhule got fired in Carolina. When Antonio Pierce came in for Las Vegas. Team starts slow. Coach gets fired. They rally behind an interim coach and go over the win total. Could absolutley see it happening for the Dolphins in this spot.
The Picks:
Dolphins OVER 7.5 Wins -110 (Steak)
New England Patriots
2024 Record: 4-13
2025 Win Total: 8.5 Wins
SB Odds: +8000
Let’s get hyped!
Vrabel in as Head Coach. Josh McDaniels has proven to be a great OC, and working with Vrabel is the perfect spot for him. Drake Maye showed signs of being the real deal.
The New England Patriots are back!
But who doesn’t believe that? Their win total has seen some of the most steam from a modest 7.5 to a 8.5.
They were very busy in free agency adding Milton Williams (DL), Carlton Davis (CB), Harold Landry (EDGE), and Robert Spillane (LB). And thats just on defene.
On offense the revamped the O-line with three new starters, signed Stefon Diggs, and drafted fantasy darling TreVeyon Henderson (RB, OSU).
New England is coming off back-to-back four win season, but last year feels like rock bottom.
Perhaps the most telling stat of how much love the Patriots are getting is that going into 2024 they were favored in ZERO games. This year they are favored in ELEVEN.
Look, we get it. New England has the 2nd easiest schedule. Vrable got Ryan Tannehill to the AFC Championship. Drake Maye was beyond promising and his leading WR was TE, Hunter Henry.
For us it feels like the value is gone. If you got in early at a 7.5 win total, because it feels like this one will come in right at 8 and burn everyone who got on the boat late.
The Picks:
Patriots UNDER 8.5 -135 (Steak and Greg)
New York Jets
2024 Record: 5-12
2025 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +22500
From the ashes rises the Pheonix. But the Pheonix is in a parking lot in New Jersey and it’s more of a phesant.
Gone is Aaron Rodgers. Gone is Robert Saleh.
New York signed Justin Fields as a bridge QB, who hopefully does something. But more than likely leads them to another early draft pick.
They bring in Aaron Glenn as HC and an entirely new coaching staff as well as GM. The only thing you can do after the last two years is burn it all down.
The defense has a ton of talent which is a massive advantage for Glenn. Just last year they were considered to be one of the best in the league. Then they started 2-3, fired Saleh, and all hell broke loose.
Now, they did lose D.J. Reed, C.J. Mosley and a handful of safeties but overall the D should be strong as they look to build a new identity.
There’s something that happens to a team who isn’t used to winning that all of a sudden has high expectations thrust on them. The Jets had a terrible record, but it’s not like they got blown out every week. They went 3-7 in one score games.
Once a couple losses happen everyone puts more pressure on themselves to save the day. And Ka - Boom.
Hell, you could point at Greg Zuerlein alone for costing them three games.
But the past is in the past. Justin Field gets his final chance at being an NFL starter. The good news is that he went 4-2 as a starter last year in Pittsburgh. The bad news is he was replaced with Russell Wilson. The worse news is outside of Garret Wilson his WR’s are Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard.
The Jets have a serious head coach and some real pieces to build for success. But they are missing the most important ingredient - a quarterback. It’s time for the other team in New Jersey to find it’s new batman.
The Picks:
Alt UNDER 4.5 Wins +210 (Degen)
Garrett Wilson Over 950.5 Yards -115 (Steak)
RECAP
AFC East Bets:
Dolphins OVER 7.5 Wins -110 (Steak)
Patriots UNDER 8.5 -135 (Steak and Greg)
Alt UNDER 4.5 Wins +210 (Degen)
Garrett Wilson Over 950.5 Yards -115 (Steak)