AFC East
NFL Futures - Part 2 of 8
My goodness are we behind.
Preseason starts tomorrow - we’ve still got six division to get through before Week 1.
No time to waste.
Go. Go. Go!
AFC East
Divisions played: AFC West and NFC North
Odds to win division:
Bills -135
Patriots +170
Dolphins +1900
Jets +1900
Buffalo Bills
2025 Record: 12-5
2026 Win Total: 10.5 (-125)
SB Odds: +1000
Here’s how I closed our 2025 preseason writeup on the Buffalo Bills:
This is the Bills final season at Highmark Stadium. Maybe it’s the venue that’s cursed. Knock it down. Fire McDermott.
Bury the football. And next year is the year!
The problem for the Bills is that every year feels like the year. And every year they crumble.
The second they fired McDermott I punched in a bet for them to win the Super Bowl. Maybe I’m falling for the latest ruse, but its been awhile since I bet the Bills to win it all and I’m ready to be hurt again.
So, in comes Joe Brady. Promoted from OC to Head Coach. He will continue to call the plays. I’m typically not a big fan of a first time head coach calling the plays, but it worked for Ben Johnson last year. The new OC is Peter Carmichael Jr. - a veteran who spent most of his career with Sean Payton in a similar role - managing the offense with the head coach calling the plays.
The offense should be fine. Josh Allen is Josh Allen. James Cook lead the league in rushing last year (1st Bill since OJ). They needed a WR and brought in DJ Moore. Shakir was their best performing guy last year and he had EIGHT catches all season where the ball traveled seven yards in the air (Per Warren Sharp).
The new DC is Jim Leonard, another Sean Payton guy coming in from the Broncos. Under McDermott the Bills played a bend, don’t break style. But come the big game it was all break. Under Leonard they will be much more aggressive, which could be what they need to get over the hump.
The front seven is an issue. They signed Bradley Chubb and drafted TJ Parker (DE) early in the 2nd round. Their first 5 draft picks from 2025 were on defense. The Buffalo D has to simply has improve if they want to make some noise. In the McDermott era they averaged allowing 30+ in their playoff losses.
The schedule is middle of the pack, but they do have a few brutal stretches throughout the season. If they can weather those storms things set up nicely for them as the season winds down with games against the Dolphins and Jets. Perfect opportunity to end the season on a high note.
Shame me all you want, but this year I need a piece of Bills Mafia!
The Picks:
DJ Moore O 800.5 receiving yards -115 (Jeff Sunday)
Bills Under 10.5 Wins +100 (Steak)
Bills Super Bowl +1000 (Greg)
Miami Dolphins
2025 Record: 7-10
2026 Win Total: 4.5 (+135)
SB Odds: +750000
Implosion is an understatement.
Mike McDaniel and his coaching staff are gone.
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are out. Tua is in Atlanta. The defense lost Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The only person left from last year’s team that you’ve even heard of is Achane.
This year they have $180M in dead cap. The previous record was $120M.
The 2026 Dolphins give new meaning to blow it all up and start new.
Leading the new coaching staff is Jeff Hafley coming in from Green Bay. He brings with him Bobby Slowik. He’s a Shanahan system guy but was underwhelming in his first stint as an OC with the Texans. Sean Duggan has spent most of his career working with Hafley, and will lead the defense.
Going into 2026 this is the worst team in the NFL. They are favored in ONE game. They have the lowest win total, and the worst odds to win the Super Bowl by a wide margin.
A ton of guys left and the only signing in free agency worth mentioning is Malik Willis. It’s a modest gamble on a one-year deal and sets up nicely for their rebuild. If he fails, they can draft a QB early next year. If he’s decent they can work out a long term deal. He had his moments in Green Bay last year, but this is a completely different situation.
Miami had a strong draft of 13 players with Kadyn Proctor (T - Bama) and Chris Johnson (CB - San Diego State) leading the way.
There is really nothing postive to say. On top of all the roster issues they play the 2nd toughest schedule playing six straight teams who made the 2025 playoffs down the stretch.
It’s fade or nothing for the Dolphins, but this is a team we want nothing to do with.
The Picks:
None
New England Patriots
2025 Record: 14-3
2026 Win Total: 10.5 (+120)
SB Odds: +1700
New England was coming off back-to-back four win seasons and exploded on the scene with Vrable and Maye.
Now, if you want to fade the Patriots here’s some cannon fodder. Last year they had the healthiest roster in the NFL and played the 2nd easiest schedule.
But Vrable is a low floor type of guy and it would be crazy to think he can’t continue to find success with an improved roster.
I’m not as big of a buyer as Steak - so I’ll let him tell you his analysis in his own words.
In short, this is an extremly talented roster. You can point to some weaknesses on defensive front, but Vrable always seems to get more out of a roster that might look undewhelming on paper.
You’ve got one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Vrable just won Coach of the Year. McDaniels won Assistant Coach of the year. Maye led this team to the Super Bowl and finished 2nd in MVP votes as a 23 year old. Now, they add a motivated AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs.
Unfortuantely the Patriots are back and there’s nothing we can do about it.
The Picks:
Patriots Over 9.5 Wins -150 (Steak)
Patriots AFC East +170 (Steak)
Patriots AFC Champions +1000 (Steak)
Patriots Super Bowl +2000 (Steak)
Drake Maye MVP +1200 (Steak)
New York Jets
2025 Record: 3-14
2026 Win Total: 5.5 (+100)
SB Odds: +35000
Nobody loves rock bottom more than the New York Jets.
It seems like an eternity ago that this team was only a QB away from being a Super Bowl contender. Alas, Zach Wilson was a joke and Aaron Rodges was too old.
Hit the reset button one more time. Trade Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Build anew.
Aaron Glenn was not what they hoped for in year one, but things are looking up!
Selling the farm has it’s upsides and the Jets had one of the most promising draft classes. Adding David Bailey (LB - Texas Tech), Kenyon Sadiq (TE - Oregon), and Omar Cooper Jr (WR - Indiana) in the 1st round. Next year they’ll have three 1st rounders as well. But that’s next year and we don’t care about it yet.
Glenn is on a short leash. Entering year two with new coordinators and a new QB is never a good sign. Frank Reich will lead the offense, he failed in Indy as a head coach but he’s a guy who’s done well as an OC througout his career. He’ll have the task of getting one more “Write me off, but I didn’t write back” type season out of Geno Smith.
The offense has some guys. Garrett Wilson got injured in Week 6 and never really recovered. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are a formidable one-two punch. Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell gets some help/competition from 1st rounders Sadiq and Cooper. There’s certainly enough there to work with.
Brian Ducker will partner with Glenn to lead the defense. They have ties from working together in Detriot, but Ducker spent the last few years in Miami as the Secondary Coach.
The biggest talking point from the Jets last year was their inability to have a single interception. It was the first time ever this happened in the NFL, which is a huge strike for a defensive guy like Aaron Glenn. They also finished 31st in sacks and dead last in QB hits. But they bring in ball hawk Minkah Fitzpatrick at safety and a completley revamped defensive front.
Make no mistake this is still a very bad roster, but there is reason for optimism. They play the 5th easiest schedule of opponents and the groundwork is laid for them to start the multi-year journey to end the longest playoff drought in all sports.
That tweets from 2023. God Bless Jets fans for everything they’ve endured. Let’s throw ‘em a bone and jump on the bandwagon before they have real expectations, fail misrably, and start anew again in 2028.
The Picks:
Jets Over 5.5 Wins -120 (Jeff Sunday and Steak)
Geno Comeback Player of the Year +8000 (Jeff)
Garrett Wilson O 4.5 TD Receptions -120 (Steak)
RECAP
AFC East Bets:
DJ Moore O 800.5 recieving yards -115 (Jeff Sunday)
Bills Under 10.5 Wins +100 (Steak)
Bills Super Bowl +1000 (Greg)
Patriots Over 9.5 Wins -150 (Steak)
Patriots AFC East +170 (Steak)
Patriots AFC Champions +1000 (Steak)
Patriots Super Bowl +2000 (Steak)
Drake Maye MVP +1200 (Steak)
Jets Over 5.5 Wins -120 (Jeff Sunday and Steak)
Geno Smith Comeback Player of the Year +8000 (Jeff Sunday)
Garrett Wilson O 4.5 TD Receptions -120 (Steak)