AFC North
NFL Futures - Part 4 of 8
Stablity in the AFC North is no more.
John Harbaugh’s tenure with the Ravens came to a close after 18 seasons.
Mike Tomlin’s tenure with the Steelers came to a close after 19 seasons.
Even Kevin Stafanski is gone in Cleveland.
Could anyone have guessed that Zac Taylor would be the last man standing?
A new dawn, a new day, a new AFC North.
AFC North:
Divisions played: AFC South and NFC South
Odds to win division:
Ravens +100
Bengals +170
Steelers +500
Browns +2000
Baltimore Ravens
2025 Record: 8-9
2026 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +1200
Sometimes it’s just too obvious. Last year I said the Ravens season would end on a missed FG after they cut Justin Tucker. I just thought that miss would come in the playoffs as opposed to Week 18.
The Ravens wasted no time in firing Harbaugh shortly after the season ended. Losing in the playoffs is one thing, but missing the playoffs after opening 2025 as the Super Bowl favorite… Well, that’s another thing, and Harbaugh had to pay the price.
Jesse Minter comes in as Head Coach and he brings Declan Doyle (OC, formerly Bears) and Anthony Weaver (DC, formerly Dolphins) with him. Minter is a Harbaugh guy. Working with John in Balty from 2017-2020. And Jim at Michigan and with the Chargers.
The defense was the problem last year so it only makes sense to bring in a HC who is a defensive specialist. He was outstanding with the Charges, immediately taking them from a lower tier defense to one of the league’s best. He has the talent in Baltimore to make a quick turnaround.
2025 was loaded with bad breaks. The Ravens were the most injured defense in the NFL. They started 1-5. Lamar missed time. After all that, they made a strong run for the Division - coming up just short or rather, wide right.
Maxx Crosby was a Raven for about a week in March, and luckily they were able to sign Trey Hendrickson, after walking away from the Crosby deal. With Nnamdi Madubuiki returning from a neck injury the defense has a lot of promise to improve.
The O-line will have 3 new starters after signing John Simpson (LG), drafting Vega Ioane (RG - Penn State) in the 1st round, and losing Tyler Linderbaum (C)
One would think Derrick Henry has to slow down eventually, but the guy is a generational force. He did have some huge fumbles last year, but he finished 2nd in rushing yards and 3rd in yards/carry.
Everything seems to be stacking up nicely for the Ravens, and the schedule is no different. They don’t play a team who made last year’s playoffs until Week 8, and will play the 6th easiest schedule overall.
2025 was BY FAR Lamar’s his worst for rushing. Since 2019 he had finished no lower than 2nd in rushing and passing output, until last year when he was 13th (Warren Sharp).
This team has been on the doorstep for several years, and maybe a new Head Coach gives them a bump.
Chalk 2025 up to bad luck, embrace the new coach, improve the defense, and let’s watch Lamar work his magic.
The Picks:
Ravens most wins +1000 (Steak)
Ravens Over 11.5 +115 (Steak and Greg)
Jakobi Lane OROY +4000 (Jeff Sunday)
Cincinatti Bengals
2025 Record: 6-11
2026 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2000
The only coaching staff to remain intact after 2025 in the AFC North.
The Bengals hopes evaporated immediately when Joe Burrow went down in Week 2. Cincinnati went 1-8 without him. It’s obvious he has to stay healthy if this team wants to do anything and yet they didn’t make any real improvements to the offensive line. Figure it out!
Chase and Higgins are fantastic wide receivers, obviously. I’m not the biggest Chase Brown guy, but his numbers don’t lie.
You don’t need me to tell you how good the offense is. Everyone knows it, but they gave up an NFL record 9 TD to opposing D’s. Jameis Winston eat your heart out!
The problem is on defense. They were the first team in NFL history last year to score 37+ in back-to-back games and lose both. They allowed 27+ in 8 straight (Warren Sharp). They couldn’t stop anyone and they didn’t have Burrow to fire back.
This defense doesn’t have to make a major turnaround for this team to become one of the AFC’s best, they just need to avoid being one of the worst in the league (again).
They needed to make some splash moves and that’s exactly what they did. Trading for Dexter Lawrence was massive. They also brought in Boye Mafa (Edge), Jonathan Allen (DL), and Bryan Cook (S). They lost their 1st round pick in the Lawrence trade, but went with guys who can help the defense in the 2nd and 3rd round. Al Golden has no excuses in year two as defensive coordinator.
Other than the Dolphins the start of their schedule is pesky. After a game at Baltimore in Week 6 they are favored in every game for the rest of the season. In fact, they are favored in 15 games total this season giving them the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL.
If Zac Taylor doesn’t get to the Playoffs this year he’s out of a job. Expectations have been too high for too long. I don’t care if Burrow has been hurt, eventually that excuse runs cold.
You don’t trade away a top 10 pick unless you are very serious about this season. Show me what ya’ got Cincinatti!
The Picks:
Bengals AFC North +185 (Jeff Sunday)
AFC North Exact CIN/BAL +370 (Jeff Sunday)
Bengals Division Wins O 3.5 -120 (Jeff Sunday)
Burrow MVP +800 (Jeff Sunday)
Bengals Super Bowl +2000 (Jeff Sunday)
Cleveland Browns
2025 Record: 5-12
2026 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +25000
Kevin Stefanski was fired after another terrible season in Cleveland. I have zero data to support it, but he is absolutely the worst coach to win Coach of the Year - TWICE!
The big story isn’t Stefanski’s exit. It was the Myles Garrett trade. Right now this looks like an excellent move for the Browns. They weren’t doing anything for the rest of his prime and they got Jared Verse, a 2027 1st rounder, and some picks in future years. Great job by the GM, Andrew Berry. But let’s be honest, this is the same mastermind behind the Deshaun Watson trade that will go down as one of the worst trades in NFL history.
Time will tell if it should have been him or Stefanski who got the axe, but my guess is both.
While the spotlight was on the Myles Garrett trade, Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz leaving could have bigger ramifications in the immediate future. He was passed over for the Head Coaching spot and walked away. Since Schwartz took over as DC in 2023 the Browns have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL.
It’s been a tale of two cities in Cleveland. One of the best defenses in the NFL, one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The best of times, the worst of times.
It didn’t matter how good the defense was, the offense couldn’t win them any games. And that’s where new Head Coach, Todd Monken, has his work cut out for him.
They revamped the offensive line in free agency and drafted Spencer Fano (T - Utah) in the 1st round. There is a lot of hype around KC Concepcion (WR - Texas A+M) and Denzel Boston (WR - Washington). Those guys need to do something because Jerry Jeudy isn’t it. Harrold Fannon led the team in receptions, yards, and TD’s last year.
It looks like they found a quality running back in Quinshon Judkins, but that’s not the issue. The issue - always and forever, is QB.
Watson has played 19 games since Covid. Shedeur Sanders looked bad, but not hopeless. Dillion Gabriel is no longer in the conversation.
The Browns have the 4th easiest schedule entering this year, but they went 3-7 against teams who didn’t make the playoffs last year. It’s a long way to go, but for now it feels like they hit rock bottom and are ready to begin the climb.
The most hilarious outcome would be for Deshawn Watson to look serviceable in 2026 and the Browns to do the unthinkable and re-sign him. In Cleveland you always bet on max pain.
The Picks:
Browns Over 5.5 Wins -110 (Steak)
Deshaun Watson Comeback Player of the Year +2500 (Jeff Sunday)
Pittsburgh Steelers
2025 Record: 10-7
2026 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +5500
Copy/paste.
10-7, sneak into the playoffs, boat raced in the Wildcard Round.
Goodbye, Mike Tomlin. Your Voodoo will never be forgotten.
Pittsburgh went 7-3 in one score games last year, but that was normal. Over the last 3 years they went 22-9 in one score games and have 12 straight years of a winning record in one score games (Clevanalytics).
It turns out SEVEN straight playoff losses are one too many and Tomlin resigned at the end of the season.
The Steelers welcome Mike McCarthy to be their 4th head coach since 1969, and he’s the only one to be an offensive mind. The times they are a-changin’.
Forgive us for not being overly excited. The Rodgers/McCarthy duo ran its course a decade ago. It’s kinda silly to expect them to rekindle any magic of yester-year.
Now look, they are trying like hell! They signed a possession WR in Michael Pittman to complement Rodgers’ quick release. They brought in Rico Dowdle to pair with Jaylen Warren. Once again the Steelers went with O-line in the 1st round selecting Max Iheanachor (T - Arizona State). For those of you keeping score at home, that’s an offensive lineman in the 1st round three of the last four years.
But Rodgers is 42, he’s made his amends with family, got his vengeance against Fauchi, all that’s left is for him to walk away from the game. He didn’t throw for 300+ yards in a single game last year. The end is near, this is his final season and it looks like he’s going out with a whimper.
For the 2nd year in a row they enter the season with the most expensive defense in the NFL. Signing Jamel Dean (CB) and Jaquan Brisker (S) was huge. They need a shot of life, and Patrick Graham could be a perfect fit.
The schedule isn’t anything special. Not too hard, not too easy. Goldilocks. The problem is dead smack in the middle of the season where they have a brutal stretch out of a Week 9 Bye.
CIN, PHI, DEN, HOU, JAX, BAL.
OUCH!
Pittsburgh’s favored in 7 games this year and 5 of them happen before Week 9. If they don’t come out to a hot start - look out, things could get really ugly.
The Picks:
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins -130 (Steak)
TJ Watt 12+ Sacks +130 (Greg)
RECAP
AFC North Bets
Ravens most wins +1000 (Steak)
Ravens Over 11.5 +115 (Steak and Greg)
Jakobi Lane OROY +4000 (Jeff Sunday)
Bengals AFC North +185 (Jeff Sunday)
AFC North Exact CIN/BAL +370 (Jeff Sunday)
Bengals Division Wins O 3.5 -120 (Jeff Sunday)
Burrow MVP +800 (Jeff Sunday)
Bengals Super Bowl +2000 (Jeff Sunday)
Browns Over 5.5 Wins -110 (Steak)
Deshaun Watson Comeback Player of the Year +2500 (Jeff Sunday)
Steelers Under 8.5 Wins -130 (Steak)
TJ Watt 12+ Sacks +130 (Greg)