It’s August.
Pre-season NFL has begun.
The first College Football Saturday is 3 weeks from tomorrow.
We have made it to the home stretch.
Now - let’s jump into one of the worst divisions in the NFL.
AFC South, engage.
AFC South:
Divisions played: AFC West and NFC West
Odds to win division:
Texans +110
Jaguars +300
Colts +320
Titans +700
Houston Texans
2024 Record: 10-7
2025 Win Total: 9.5 (+100)
SB Odds: +2500
After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, CJ Stroud had a dropoff. He was highly scrutinized for his performanc. But here’s the thing…
In each of his first two NFL seasons he won the division, won 10 games, and won a playoff game.
Let’s not forget how bad the Texans were before his arrival. They went three consecutive years with four wins or less. This team was at rock bottom and now they are a tier below the AFC’s elite.
The biggest change on offense is the change at OC. Bobby Slowik was fired and replaced with Nick Caley. His resume is stellar - working with Bill Belichick for eight years before a stint with McVay in LA.
They didn’t have a 1st round draft pick, but went OT and WR in the second round. Important pieces after losing Laremy Tunsil and Stefon Diggs in the offseason.
Houston had major concerns at O-line last year and although they signed some guys in FA, it’s still the weak spot for the 2025 season.
The WR room should be interesting as it’s a bit all over the place. Nico Collins has solidified his spot as one of the leagues best. They signed Christian Kirk and added two more WR’s in the draft. Tank Dell suffered a nasty injury in Week 16 and is unfortunately expected to miss the season.
Joe Mixon was great last year and they signed Nick Chubb. Although Chubb’s 2023 knee injury might be the end of him as we knew him, he’s the type of talent who you don’t want write off for dead too quickly. There are also some concerning reports to Mixon’s health going forward. Could be worth a dart on Chubb as Comeback Player of the Year.
The D will remain strong. They were +10 in turnover margin and continue to improve under DeMeco Ryans.
Despite playing in what might be the worst division in football the Texans still have the 7th hardest schedule. Stroud will certainly need to improve from his “sophomore slump” and the new OC should help, but it’s tough to see this team join the class of the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs.
The Picks:
Texans Make Playoffs (-135) - Steak
Stroud OVER 21.5 Passing TD (-100) - Steak
Nico Collins OVER 1150.5 yards (-115) - Greg
Nick Chubb Comeback Player of the Year (+2200) - Greg
Indianapolis Colts
2024 Record: 8-9
2025 Win Total: 7.5 (-110)
SB Odds: +8500
Shane Steichen is in a rough spot. The Colts took a huge gamble on Anthony Richardson and so far, he has been terrible. Sure, he’s had some amazing throws, but the high highs don’t come close to cancelling out the low lows. Fear not Colts fans - you signed Daniel Jones in the off season!
You knew Anthony Richardson was going to be a project, but he doesn’t appear to be making any progress. AR only had 8 TD’s to go along with his TWELVE interceptions and NINE fumbles. He also had the lowest completion rate in the NFL. He’s basically the Ben Simmons of the NFL…
Last year with the team flailing they made the move from Richardson to Joe Flacco and it all fell apart. The only thing AR has proven he can do is get injured and fumble.
The receiving core is decent with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce. But someone has to get them the ball. They added Tyler Warren (TE-Penn State) but what good are more bullets if the gun can’t fire?
Steichen returns with OC Jim Bob Cooter to lead the offense and they hired former Bengals DC, Lou Anarumo. The defense certainly has their own problems, but they signed Charvarious Ward (CB) and Cam Bynum (S) to help the secondary.
All around this is a bad roster. Jonathan Taylor is the lone bright spot and if he gets injured it will be a huge problem.
One thing they do surprisingly well? Score early. Ranking in the top 10 the last 2 years in 1st Q points (Warren Sharp). It helps, but you don’t win football games in the 1st quarter and the Colts will need to figure out the rest of the game if Steichen wants to come back for a 4th season.
We are low on the Colts, but Degen says this is the time to buy low on AR15.
The Picks:
Colts UNDER 7.5 Wins (-120) - Steak
*Bonus Play* Daniel Jones to Start Week 1 (+130) - Steak
Anthony Richardson Comeback Player of the Year (+3300) - Degen
Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 Record: 4-13
2025 Win Total: 7.5 (-125)
SB Odds: +7500
Doug Peterson got the axe and former Bucs OC Liam Coen will come in to make his attempt at rescuing Trevor Lawrence.
Coen brings in some young coordinators in Grant Undinski (OC) and Anthony Campanile (DC). They had decent stints with the Vikings (Undinski) and Packers (Campanile) but the promotion will be a big ask in terms of their roles to date.
Coens biggest taks is to salvage one of the worst contracts in the NFL.
The Jags gave T Law 5 years/$275 million. His $55M in 2025 is on par with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. It’s impossible to rebuild when you’re paying a guy with his performance that kind of money.
The Jags are trying to do something about the O-line, but they aren’t having much success. Mediocre would be a huge improvement. Travis Etienne Jr. has gotten worse every year he’s been in the league and Tank Bigsby is now the starter. That’s fine, but it’s not much help.
On the positive side, Brian Thomas Jr. led all rookies in receiving yards last year - Greg BANG!
They traded up to the #2 overall pick to get Travis Hunter. The guy literally did it all at Colorado, winning the award for best WR and defender, but will he be able to do both at the next level? For the price they paid he needs to deliver early and often for the offense. It’s TBD if/how he will contribute on defense, but the Jags could certainly use all the help they can get.
Josh Hines-Allen is one of the rare bight spots for a defense with an - at BEST - average front seven and an weak secondary.
It would be one thing is Coen just needed to fix the offense. With the lack of talent on D he needs the offense to go from bad to great and the defense to go from bad to middle of the pack. Big ask for the first year HC. The Jags do have the 6th easiest schedule, but nothing is an easy win when your team is this low.
No one is expecting much from the Jags. For this season to be a success they need Lawrence to prove he was not the latest college generational talent turned bust. He was 2-8 as a starter last year with 11 TD’s and 7 INT. Throughout his career he’s 22-38 while playing in one of the worst divisions in football.
Coen has a lot of work to do, or Sunshine becomes Sunset.
The Picks:
No Picks
Tennessee Titans
2024 Record: 3-14
2025 Win Total: 5.5 (-150)
SB Odds: +20000
The best thing Will Levis will do in his NFL career is get the Titans the #1 overall pick. Cam Ward was is in a class by himself for 2025 rookie QBs and Tennessee’s future depends on him stepping up at the next level.
It’s tough to find a team that has had a bigger drop-off over the last few years than the Titans. Definition of crash and burn.
2021 - 12 wins
2022 - 7 wins
2023 - 6 wins
2024 - 3 wins
If Will Levis and a three win season isn’t rock bottom then we don’t know what is.
Brian Callahan is back for his second year as HC and will continue calling the plays. As a head coach the jury is still out. Maybe Joe Burrow made him look like a stud in Cincinnati, or maybe he was stuck with a bad roster/terrible QB’s and he’s actually legit. Regardless, he got a pass last year but his clock starts ticking Week 1.
The offense isn’t terrible around Ward. Calvin Ridley quietly had a 1,000 yard season. Between Pollard and Spears the RB room is competent. They also signed Dan Moore at LT. Nothing great, but baby steps when you’re in the dungeon.
The Titans drafted two WR’s in the 4th round of the draft as well as signing Tyler Lockett. Old WR’s go to die in Tennessee so we doubt Lockett does much, but maybe one of the later round draft picks breaks out.
There is no sugar coating it. The defense is very bad. One of, if not the worst front seven and a weak secondary. This year is very simply about putting Ward in position to make some plays and building his confidence. You can improve the team in the upcoming years.
Step one: get a good foundation for a rookie QB.
Levis threw a pick six in each start for the first three weeks. The special teams unit allowed SEVEN kick returns for a TD. One or two you can blame on luck or a missed assignment. Seven means you have a massive problem. These type of plays could be killer to any momentum the Titans hope to build this year and they must eliminate major mistakes.
The promise of Cam Ward is high. One of his best traits is avoiding big mistakes. Perfect fit. He rarely got sacked and he only threw 7 INT’s with his 39 TD’s last year. Basically the exact opposite of Levis. The Titans also had the most turnovers in the league, while going 2-6 in one score games.
We are mostly in alignment on the Titans, but the question of WHEN to buy is where we are split. Degen and Steak are jumping in out of the gate. Greg’s waiting to see how Ward fares to start the season. Four road games in the first six week. In Week 7, they get a revenge hungry Mike Vrable and the Patriots. Probably looking to buy-in after the Week 10 Bye when their travel and schedule get significantly easier.
Degen was all about fading the Titans last year as his favorite NFL futures bet. The thinking was they signed a bunch of free agents that were there to get paid, not to win games. Combine that with an awful QB in Will Levis and a rookie Head Coach, the team never stood a chance. But now he is buying all the way into Cam Ward. Tennessee reportedly fielded some massive trade packages from other teams during the draft to move up and select Ward, and there’s a reason they declined. This dude is different, and he will be slinging the ball in Brian Callahans offense on a team with nothing to lose.
The Titans play the 8th easiest schedule overall, but again - this about about building up Ward. If that can happen, success will follow.
The Picks:
Titans OVER 5.5 Wins (-140) - Steak
Titans win AFC South (+600) - Steak
Calvin Ridley OVER 5.5 TDs (-115) - Greg
Cam Ward OROY (+350) - Degen
Cam Ward OVER 3200.5 (-110) - Degen
RECAP
AFC South Bets
Texans Make Playoffs (-135) - Steak
Stroud OVER 21.5 Passing TD (-100) - Steak
Nico Collins OVER 1150.5 yards (-115) - Greg
Nick Chubb Comeback Player of the Year (+2200) - Greg
Colts UNDER 7.5 Wins (-120) - Steak
*Bonus Play* Daniel Jones to Start Week 1 (+130) - Steak
Anthony Richardson Comeback Player of the Year (+3300) - Degen
Titans OVER 5.5 Wins (-140) - Steak
Titans win AFC South (+600) - Steak
Calvin Ridley OVER 5.5 TDs (-115) - Greg
Cam Ward OROY (+350) - Degen
Cam Ward OVER 3200.5 (-110) - Degen