Another week, another division preview. Seven days closer to that first Sunday NFL Kickoff. 168 hours closer. You can’t taste it, you can’t smell it, but the garlic and onions are about to start sizzling. We’re around the corner from being around the corner of glorious Saturday’s and Sunday’s jam packed with non-stop action.
This is the slowest gambling week of the year. The summer lull is in full effect, but just remember - as of today it’s 51 days away, and when our NFC North preview goes out next week it’s 7 days closer.
Before we dive in, it’s only appropriate to give credit where credit is due. A ton of our preseason research comes from the Warren Sharp NFL Preview below:
By far the best $30 you can spend preparing for the upcoming season. We will be referencing this a ton over the next couple weeks, but want to make sure we were giving them the credit they deserve.
AFC West… here we come!
AFC West:
Divisions played: AFC South and NFC East
Odds to win division:
Chiefs -115
Chargers +310
Broncos +330
Raiders +1200
Denver Broncos
2024 Record: 10-7
2025 Win Total: 9.5 (+110)
SB Odds: +2800
If you want the blueprint for how to build a team with a QB on a rookie contract, look no further than the Denver Broncos.
The best run blocking O-line in the league, arguably the best defense, and a coach with a Super Bowl under his belt. Check, check, check.
Let’s start with the O-line: they didn’t make any moves, but they didn’t need to. What they did do is drastically improve the guys running behind them. JK Dobbins comes in to be the day one starter and they drafted RJ Harvey from UCF in the 2nd round. Harvey could be primed to make a splash coming off 3 consecutive 1,000+ yard seasons in college, but the UCF schedule could skew those numbers. Javonte Williams is gone. Calling him an average NFL RB would be an overstatement, but he was great at pass protection and that could be an issue leading to more sacks/pressure against Nix this year.
If Defense wins Championships, maybe we should crown the Broncos already. One of the best units in the NFL added a few former 49er Pro Bowlers in Dre Greenlaw (LB) and Talanoa Hufunga (S). They also drafted Jahdae Barron (CB) from Texas in the first round to line up on the other side of DPOY Surtain II. DC Vance Joseph made a big turnaround last year and the sky’s the limit for 2025.
Fun fact: no team won more games by 14+ points than the Broncos in 2024. Their 10-7 record and playoff appearance was impressive. Six of those seven losses were also by just one possession.
The downside to their breakout effort last year is they only technically had one win over a playoff team, defeating the Buccaneers in Week 3. They also beat the Chiefs 38-0 in Week 18, but KC rested their starters. They went 2-5 against Playoff teams, proving they aren’t yet ready to be in the top of the class in the AFC.
The big story for the Broncos this season will be how well Bo Nix develops in year two. He played the 4th toughest schedule of Defenses in 2024, and it gets easier this year. So maintaining the status quo should be sufficient, and if they can maintain, there’s a good chance they can go over the 9.5 wins being asked by Vegas. The biggest weakness is at the WR spot. Denver neglected to bring in any weapons for Nix. Sutton is coming off a career year. He’s obviously a stud, but after him it gets ugly. Marvin Mims? Evan Engram? Woof.
The stage is set for Sean Payton to take this team to the next level and we at The Degenerate are split. Some of us are believers, and some of us are just sitting on the sidelines to see how it all goes wrong.
The Picks:
Broncos UNDER 9.5 Wins -115 (FD) - Steak
Broncos OVER 9.5 Wins +110 (FD) - Greg
Playoffs YES -115 (FD) - Greg
Bo Nix Most Interceptions - Degen
Kansas City Chiefs:
2024 Record: 15-2
2025 Win Total: 11.5 +100
SB Odds: +800
What’s not to like about the Chiefs? They have the best quarterback in the NFL. They have the best head coach in the NFL. They are coming off the most wins in franchise history. They’ve gone to SEVEN straight AFC Championships and five of the last six Super Bowls. It’s just silly how dominant they have been for nearly a decade.
So why shouldn’t you just hammer the Chiefs again? In all honesty, it’s never a terrible bet, but there are some concerns if you look behind the curtain.
Mahomes’ is coming off a career low in passing yards/game
2024 was the lowest amount of red zone TD’s in the Andy Reid era
Travis Kelce is 35 years old and seems more interested in playing paparazzi with TSwift than football. He’s coming off career lows in receiving yards and TD’s.
It speaks volumes to Mahomes being clutch: Kansas City went 11-0 in one score games last year. A handful of plays and they could have been fighting for a Wildcard spot rather than coasting to a Playoff Bye.
There’s a strong argument that they never really got much of a chance to build rhythm on offense. Rashee Rice was out for the season by Week 4. Hollywood Brown was injured early and missed most of the season. Worthy, Rice, and Brown never played a game together. Not to mention Isiah Pacheco breaking his leg, missing a chunk of the season, and not being the same guy once he returned. Up front Joe Thuney is gone, but they got Jaylon Moore in free agency and went OL in the 1st round.
This teams pedigree speaks for itself. They fell short of a 3-peat in the Super Bowl and it feels like they are on a down swing. Insane. There are plenty of metrics you can point to that say this team is a candidate to regress. As long as it’s Reid and Mahomes, fading them is off the table for us.
Late edit: It looks like Rashee Rice will likely be facing some sort of suspension, but details TBD.
The Picks:
Chiefs to win AFC West -115 (FD) - Squad Ride
Las Vegas Raiders
2024 Record: 4-13
2025 Win Total: 6.5 -145
SB Odds: +10000
Pete Carroll will turn 74 early in the 2025 season. Geno Smith is a 10+ year journeyman. Although he was rejuvenated in Seattle, he’s been in the league since 2013 and his high water mark was a loss in the Wildcard in 2022.
Expectations in Sin City are low. In my opinion this year is about stopping the bleeding rather than building for the future, and the Raiders are on the right trajectory.
The Antonio Pierce experiment failed miserably and the Raiders moved to their third GM in as many years.
We could spend all day talking about the problems with this team, but everyone knows they’re terrible. Instead, let’s be optimists.
The glass isn’t half full, but it ain’t empty!
Vegas had five draft picks in the first three rounds. Brining in new blood is exactly what Pete Carrol needs. Their draft was highlighted by getting Boise State superstar Ashton Jeanty. Nearly 3,000 yards last year and never rushing for less than 100+ in a game.
Brock Bowers is turning into a monster and could be one of the best Tight Ends for years to come. They signed Christian Wilkins (DT) last year, but he was lost for the season in Week 5. A healthy Wilkins with Maxx Crosby can be a very troublesome duo for opposing offenses.
Snap back to reality. Geno is Geno. This might be the worst secondary in the NFL. The receivers are bad, the O-line is worse. A year from now we could easily be saying “why the hell did Pete Carrol come back and coach in his mid-seventies?”. Their division had three teams make the playoffs with the Chargers and Broncos trending in the right direction and the Chiefs who remain elite.
The schedule isn’t easy. They play nine playoff teams. It gets worse - they rank dead last in rest advantage (Per Warren Sharp). That means playing teams off a BYE or having to play on a short week due to a Primetime game. Those short rest spots can be a killer. They’re drowning and the NFL threw ‘em an anchor. The big plus is they will play 12 games indoors, where Geno has shown throughout his career to perform significantly better.
Steak is out, but Degen wants to be in. All we can say is buyer beware if you think this is an easy fade…
The Picks:
Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins +120 (Steak)
Los Angeles Chargers
2024 Record: 11-6
2025 Win Total: 9.5 +100
SB Odds: +2800
Year One of the Jim Harbaugh experience was a success.
Year Two offers a ton of promise. Just look at Harbaugh’s coaching career in the 2nd season with a team:
University of San Diego: 11-1
Stanford: 4-8 but pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all time as 41pt underdogs against Pete Carrol and USC
San Francisco 49ers: Lost in Super Bowl
Michigan: 10-3
Wherever Harbaugh goes, success follows. Now he’s looking to follow up on an 11-6 season. The biggest benefactor from the Harbaugh effect is Justin Herbert. You saw it last year. Showcasing his best passer rating, lowest INT’s, and a career high in wins. He got better as the year went on.
The Chargers boosted the offense around Herbert. Signing Mekhi Bechton to the O-line next to Joe Alt. Drafting Omarion Hampton (RB-UNC) and Tre Harris (WR-Ole Miss). Najee Harris gets a lot of hate, but he’s ran for 1,000+ yards in all four years with the Steelers. A more than just a capable option, especially when paired with Hampton. They weren’t ground breaking moves, but it’s steady improvement.
Ladd McConkey is emerging as a stud, and Harbaugh was able to at least salvage Quentin Johnston, who appeared to be a major bust after his rookie season.
The problems for the Charges come on defense. The secondary is strong and highlighted by Derwin James, but up front is where it gets dicey. An already weak front seven lost Joey Bosa.
The other problem for the Chargers is their 11-6 record last year might be a bit of a fugazi. They played 12 games against QBs who were benched, backups, or rookies last year, and went 1-5 against consistent non-rookie starters (Warren Sharp). Other than sweeping the Broncos they didn’t beat a single playoff team. This year they will play 9 opponents who made the Playoffs in 2024.
Another team where we are a bit split. Steak is buying because it’s starting to feel like now or never for Herbert to get his first playoff win. Degen unsuccessfully faded last year and wants to double down, but can’t stomach another season of losing money to the adorable Harbaugh/Herbert relationship. Instead, we are choosing to back the Chargers and Herbert specifically.
The Picks:
Chargers OVER 9.5 wins -110 (FD) - Steak
Herbert MVP +1900 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Herbert Most Touchdown Passes +3300 (FD) - Degen
Herbert OVER 22.5 Passing TD’s (DK) - Degen
RECAP
AFC West Bets
Broncos UNDER 9.5 Wins -115 (FD) - Steak
Broncos OVER 9.5 Wins +110 (FD) - Greg
Playoffs YES -115 (FD) - Greg
Bo Nix Most Interceptions - Degen
Chiefs to win AFC West -115 (FD) - Squad Ride
Raiders UNDER 6.5 wins +120 (Steak)
Chargers OVER 9.5 wins -110 (FD) - Steak
Herbert MVP +1900 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Herbert Most Touchdown Passes +3300 (FD) - Degen
Herbert OVER 22.5 Passing TD’s (DK) - Degen