The final NFL Futures writeup of the 2023 season can only mean one thing - kickoff is right around the corner. This Friday we’re back to our regular format for Week 1 and we’ll be combining our college and NFL plays into the same newsletter.
As we get ready for the regular season we’ll promote the VSIN betting splits again, simply because we are big fans and use the site on a daily basis. This is a great resource if you’re curious as to what the market is doing for NFL, College Football, MLB Playoffs, and more. VSIN is charging $20/month for access to their data ($240 for the year). We reached out and got a promo code just before football starts to knock $40 off the annual price tag. Just go to vsin.com/subscribe/ choose the middle $240 annual subscription option and then enter in:
PROMO CODE: DEGEN
NFC North:
Divisions played: AFC West, NFC South
Odds to win division:
Detroit Lions +145
Minnesota Vikings +260
Green Bay Packers +350
Chicago Bears +430
Chicago Bears
2022 Record: 3-14
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6000
The hype behind Justin Fields for MVP is as real as it gets. He enters his sophomore season as one of the favorites with +2000 odds. You could make a very good case for him to win the award, as we’ve even thought about getting on the bandwagon. The man was a 1,000 yard rusher last year and now the Bears went out and got him DJ Moore and some much needed beef on the offensive line. What could go wrong?
Step back in time with us to only four short years ago: the Bears were coming off a heartbreaking Playoff loss to the Eagles (The double doink), Mitch Trubisky was tapped for the Pro Bowl and as the 2019 season approached he was everyones “cute” pick for MVP. Tough not to see the parallels between that time and now for the Bears. This is one of the reason we are staying away from the Fields fanfare, but the biggest reason is coaching.
Matt Eberfus (HC) and Luke Getsy (OC) aren’t exactly the dream team for developing a young QB. One thing we certainly did not expect to come across when doing our Bears research (credit to SharpFootball ) is that the Bears scored at the highest rate of any team in the NFL last year on their opening drive. You read that correctly. The Chicago Bears scored on 70.6% of their opening drives. Amazing. The problem for the Bears however, was every drive after that, leading them to a 14 loss season.
There is good cause to back the Bears this year. They went 1-7 in one score games, and you have to think that a few plays go their way this year and they improve on that mark. Especially since they have the sixth easiest schedule in the NFL for 2023. The Bears also had 93M in dead cap in 2022, which wasn’t only the most in the league, it was the most in the history of the NFL.
Everyone has their eyes on Fields to take the next step, but the real problem is they allowed the league high in total points. The Bears are just too trendy for us to get behind because of a flashy QB and not much else. We also think this will be a sneaky good division, but the Bears aren’t the team we want to be a part of.
Best Bet:
Bears Under 7.5 Wins
Detroit Lions
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2100
Move over Dallas Cowboys - the Detroit Lions are American’s Team. They have everything a football fan could love.
Psycho coach: Check
Under-rated QB who continues to impress after everyone gave up on him: Check
A defense loaded with hard working and under appreciated veterans: Check
Phenomenal O-Line: Check
Thunder and lightning structured running game: Check
Seriously, this is a made for Hollywood type team. Basically hammering on every “Football Guy” stereotype out there. It’s a thing of beauty. But the one thing that stands above everything else (at least for gamblers) is their ability to cover the spread, because everyone knows: Good teams win, great teams cover.
The Lions have been the best team in the NFL ATS (against the spread) over the last two years. They’ve found themselves as underdogs in 31 of their last 34 games - and covered 68% of them!
2022 was an ugly start at 1-6, but just when everyone was ready to count out Dan Campbell (HC) and Jared Goff - the Lions did what the Lions do: exceed expectations. Detroit went on to finish the season at 8-2, and the cherry on top was a win in Lambeau to not only end the Packers playoff hopes, but to end the reign of Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. It can’t be understated that this game meant nothing to the Lions and everything to the Packers, and it shows that Campbell has this team fired up and ready to go every single week.
This year the Lions enter the season with something they haven’t had in years, maybe decades: expectations. Detroit is the favorite to win the division and are favored in twelve games. The crown in the NFC North is up for grabs now that Rodgers went to New York and the Lions are primed to take it.
Running backs Jamal Williams and D’Andre Swift accounted for 25 TD’s last year and they are both gone, creating a massive hole for the Lions offense. Can veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs fill the void? We think they can - but that doesn’t mean we are all over the Lions. They are a public darling and they’ve never had the target on their backs. Although we’re a bit hesitant to jump on the Lions bandwagon for any futures, we still want a piece of the action, because this team is just too fun not to have some skin in the game.
Best Bet:
David Montgomery Over 5.5 TD’S (Dino)
Jahmyr Gibbs OROY +900 (Degen)
Green Bay Packers
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +4000
Green Bay Packers QB History:
Brett Favre (1992-2007)
Aaron Rodgers (2008-2022)
Jordan Love (2023-????)
The Packers had three decades of HOF QB play and only have two Super Bowls to show for it. After 5+ years of pissing and moaning, Aaron Rodgers finally walked away. You get the sentiment from Green Bay fans that it’s goodbye and good riddance. After three straight 13 wins seasons the Packers missed the playoffs last year. Prior to 2022, Rodgers had won back-to-back MVP awards. He had a massive drop off in almost every statistic and threw for double digit INT’s for the first time since 2010. Now they look to rebound off an eight win season with a new QB.
Head coach Matt LaFluer certainly has his work cut out for him in year four. Has his success to date been all Aaron Rodgers or can he bring a new era of winning in Cheesetown, USA?
After three years of watching from the sidelines first round pick Jordan Love gets his big opportunity. He has more than enough weapons to support his cause: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion at RB, a top tier offensive line, emerging star Christian Watson + the potential of Romeo Doubs at WR, and oddly enough a draft class that added (2) TE’s and (1) WR in the first 3 rounds.
The Packers are one of our favorite buy low spots going into the 2023 season. For all the reasons above on offense, but they also return a very good defense and a bunch of guys with a chip on their shoulder to prove that the Packers are more than Aaron Rodgers.
Call us crazy, but we think the NFC South will have three teams that make the Playoffs, with Green Bay leading the way.
Best Bets:
Packers Over 7.5 Wins
Packers to win NFC South +350 (Dino)
Jordan Love passing yards Over 3300.5 (Steak)
Jordan Love passing TD’s Over 21.5 (Degen)
Minnesota Vikings
2022 Record: 13-4
2023 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3500
Everyone and we mean EVERYONE is expecting the Vikings team to regress from their 13-4 performance last year. It’s a safe bet to say they will, but that certainly doesn’t mean we are looking to fade them. It’s easy to forget just how great lucky opportunistic the Vikings were last year. They went 11-0 in one score games. They led the NFL in 4th quarter points. They trailed going into the 4th quarter in 10 games and only lost 4.
On the offensive side of the ball, Dalvin Cook will be replaced by Alexander Mattison. We get it, it doesn’t make sense in todays NFL to spend a ton of money at the running back position, but that’s not to say we believe Mattison will be able to fill the void of Cook. Speedster (literally) Jordan Addison will replace Adam Thielen, but as long as you have Justin Jefferson lining up on the other side of the ball you’re in great shape. And finally the king of mediocrity, Kirk Cousins, enters the last year of his contract. This is certainly enough firepower to see a path to nine wins, even when you consider they have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL.
The real story with the Vikings this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Brian Flores (former Dolphins HC) comes in to run the defense with had the worst secondary in the NFL last year. Our reasoning for buying in on this team has (almost) nothing to do with the offense and everything to do with this defensive coaching change. We believe in Flores and and all new DB room. It certainly has the potential to drastically improve from 2022. The Vikings will regress…but just not as hard as everyone’s expecting.
Best Bet:
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins
Alexander Mattison rushing yards Under 800.5 (Dino)
T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 TD’s (Degen)
AFC West
Divisions Played: AFC East, NFC North
Odds to win division:
Kansas City Chiefs -180
Los Angeles Chargers +300
Denver Broncos +600
Las Vegas Raiders +1700
Denver Broncos
2022 Record: 5-12
2023 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4500
Russel Wilson was supposed to the the answer to all the Broncos problems, but it’s looking more likely that he’s going to cause a new generation of bigger problems. Of course Nathaniel Hackett was terrible and should be blamed, but all of it? Something was clearly amiss with Russ last year. He had a career worst in sacks, TD’s and completion rate. He led the league in sacks and INT’s - all this while playing one of the easiest schedules of passing defenses.
Richard Sherman has shown his distaste for Russ. Pete Carroll has made some backhanded comments. For a lot of us it started with “Broncos Country… Let’s Ride” and since then it’s be a waterfall of cringe.
Sean Payton comes in to fix everything, and his resume should have you believe that he can do it. We just aren’t buying it. This defense played phenomenally well last year - all they got to show for it was a mountain of heartbreaking losses, terrible QB play and one of the the most embarrassing red zone offenses we can remember. The same animosity towards Russ that built for years in Seattle seems to be coming to a quick boil in Denver.
Best Bets:
Broncos Under 8.5 Wins
Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Record: 14-3
2023 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +600
Last year was supposed to be a down year in Kansas City. They couldn’t resign Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs entered 2022 as +1000 to win the Super Bowl. The rest of the AFC West was stacked. Chargers making huge signings on defense. The Raiders went out and got Devante Adams. Russell Wilson to the Broncos. Everything was aligned for them to start their fall off and open the door for another team in the division to rise up. And then what happened…
Per the Warren Sharp NFL Preview lets take a look a the laundry list of offensive situations the Chiefs passing offense ranked #1 in last year:
Against man coverage, against zone coverage, against 2-high, against non 2-high, when opponents blitzed, when they didn’t blitz, when throwing under 10 yards, when throwing over 10 yards, when throwing in more than 3 seconds, on early downs, on third downs, in the pocket, outside of the pocket, with play action, without play action, with and without pressure, when targeting WRs, when targeting everyone else, in the 1st half, in the 2nd half, after a positive play, after a negative play.
Get the point? Again these are all situations where they ranked #1 in the NFL. Absolutely on fire, in a year when they just lost their best WR. You have to be insane to fade this team. Even though Frank Clark left and the Chiefs play the 5th toughest schedule, there aren’t many negatives.
Patrick Mahomes has spent five years as a starter. Every year he has won at least 12 games, won the division, and (at least) gone to the AFC Championship Game. Two Super Bowls, two MVP’s. Super hero shit. You certainly won’t see us trying to talk anyone off going all in on the Chiefs, but it’s just not our style.
Best Bet
Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (Dino)
Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Record: 6-11
2023 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +6000
Yes the Raiders were bad last year. But there are bad teams every year. What made the Raiders so miraculously terrible in 2022 was their ability to blow a big lead. They lead by 10+ at halftime five times and lost four of them, and even worse, they had a losing record in games where they led by 13+ points.
This team had an uncanny ability to look like the real deal, and then remind us why we shorted them going into the season in a matter of seconds.
Before we get into the Jimmy G conversation let’s look a the rest of their skill position players, because this team is unique combination of talent and drama.
TE Darren Waller traded for a 3rd round pick, he will be replaced by Michael Mayer (ND)
Reports of superstar WR Devonte Adams requesting a trade if things don’t go well
Rushing Leader Josh Jacobs just ended his holdout
Their current situation is highly volatile and a few early losses could shift this team into serious internal turmoil. And the savior for Josh McDaniels is supposed to be Jimmy G? Look, we get it, Jimmy took the 49ers to a Super Bowl and kept them at the top of the NFC when he was healthy. We are willing to bet that was all the work of Kyle Shanahan. He lifted Jimmy G up, and we think McDaniels is going to bring him down. Shanahan made things easy. Dinking and dunking, creating separation, not asking him to do too much. McDaniels relationship with Carr was very different, he made nothing easy, and pushed him out in a single season. If Carr struggled, Jimmy G will implode.
What’s really sad is the offense is the Raiders strong suit. The defense has Maxx Crosby, and thats about it. You don’t blow 4th quarter leads with this type of frequency without a few gaping holes. Las Vegas played the easiest schedule of offenses last year and still ranked bottom 5 in defense. Let’s see what happens when they play the 2nd hardest schedule.
Best Bet:
Raiders Under 6.5 Wins
Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Record: 10-7
2023 Win Total: 9.5
SB Odds: +2100
This is it Brandon Staley. The last year of Herbert’s rookie contract. The first two years of your head coaching career have ended in comical pain for Chargers fans.
Year 1: Week 18 vs. Raiders: Call a timeout, ruining the easy tie for a playoff bid
Year 2: Wildcard Round vs Jaguars: One of the biggest collapses in NFL history
This one of the most compete rosters in the NFL. There is no weakness. Great QB, strong offensive line, excellent RB, deep and talented WR room, awesome defense. Coaching is the only weakness! However, they did bring in Kellen Moore (DAL) as OC - a move that we absolutely love.
The bottom line is that as long as Staley is running the show we can’t take any futures on the Chargers. Last year year they went 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Even though they were a disappointment they did get hit with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, so it makes it a bit more understandable. Nothing on this team for us…but everything on Herbert.
Best Bet:
Justin Herbert Passing TD Leader +600
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Leader +450
Justin Herbert MVP +1200 (Degen)
Hope everyone enjoyed these preseason write-ups. It’s a lot of work but damnit do we love it. Good luck to you this year and we’ll see you on Friday for the regular season!
RECAP
Bears Under 7.5 Wins
David Montgomery Over 5.5 TD’S (Dino)
Gibbs OROY +900 (Degen)
Packers Over 7.5 Wins
Packers to win NFC South +350 (Dino)
Jordan Love passing yards Over 3300.5 (Steak)
Jordan Love passing TD’s Over 21.5 (Degen)
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins
Alexander Mattison rushing yards Under 800.5 (DiNo)
T.J. Hockenson Over 5.5 TD’s (Degen)
Broncos Under 8.5 Wins
Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (Dino)
Raiders Under 6.5 Wins
Justin Herbert Passing TD Leader +600
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Leader +450
Justin Herbert MVP +1200 (Degen)
How can Gb to win NFC South?