And Then There Were Eight
NFL Divisional Round & College Football Final
Only seven NFL games remain
And the College Football Championship
Quality over quantity. That’s what we’re left with.
We have a total of eight more football games remaining this season, and five of them are happening this weekend. It goes quick. Wee are looking to reduce the damage from a rough NFL season and put a cherry on top of a strong performance in college football.
We went 4-1 last week, with the lone blemish being Greg’s cold streak. But he’s got a plan to break the curse.
We will not go quietly into the night!
Please do us a favor and follow the YouTube Page!
We’re trying to get 1,000 subscribers. This year we will be providing more content and interviews. Steak and I are going to the Orange Bowl tonight as well as the CFB National Championship game.
You can also rewatch all the Board Reviews and see our cool graphics made by our W mod Snide.
New Merch is now available!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 40-41-2 (-14.53 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL Divisional Round
Four game, three best bets. Not enough time left to get back to even in the NFL, but that does’t mean we won’t do our damndest to get there.
The last football packed weekend of the year, let’s get after it.
Commanders at Lions -8.5 Total 55.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD 12-6-1
The Best Bet streak lives on. Haven’t lost one of these since Week 7. As Kirk Cousins once famously said…”YOU LIKE THAT?!”
I’ve done a great job of being disciplined - not betting on shit teams, not fading good teams, and most importantly not getting cute. However I must admit, I am relapsing.
If betting on the Lions offense to score points is getting cute then call me Betty Boop, because that’s exactly what I’m doing. But before we get into that, how about we tip our cap and show a little respect to the Washington Commanders. This is a team with a rookie QB, first year coaching staff and a 6.5 win total that not only made the playoffs but won a Wild Card road game. As a Bucs fan, I even admitted that I didn’t feel Tampa deserved to win that game. Yet what’s being talked about is that the Commanders are the luckiest team we’ve seen in our lifetime. I gotta be honest, that irritates me…
I have a real issue with the “luck” metric, but I’ll fight that fight another time.
This weekends best bet came down to two options. My first love was truly the Houston Texans, but then I told myself to not put my streak on the line fading Patrick Mahomes. That would just be dumb, and I’m trying to be less dumb. My second love was not overthinking it and betting on the Detroit Lions. But rather than the spread, I wanted to hone in on their offense and Ben Johnson. In part because I just love this unit and think they absolutely skull fuck, but I also have no shame in admitting that I do respect Washington enough to fear the backdoor.
Dan Quinn has done a fine job with this Commanders defense. I have no idea where they rank currently, but I’m sure before the season most people would’ve told you they would be one of the worst in the NFL. Did they benefit from some luck in that Baker botched snap? Sure. But they still held one of the most dangerous offenses to 20 points at home in the Playoffs. What stood out most to me was their ability to contain Bucky Irving. For whatever reason, the Bucs were committed to the run game and refused to go pass heavy. Baker was still able to go 15/18 and the passing game seemed to be just fine. That’s what I think Detroit takes advantage of in this game.
With an week of rest, extra time to prepare and a locker room full of Dan Campbell coached dudes who know their Super Bowl window is closing, I think the Lions offense is going to come out and put on a show from start to finish. Their defense has had their injuries and their issues, so I want to remove them from the equation. David Montgomery is back and I think that gives the entire city some added juice that they don’t even need but will certainly take. This has Jared Goff 26/30 4 TD written all over it, and the Lions put up no less than 37.
The Pick: Lions TTO 33.5 (-110)
Rams at Eagles -6 Total 45.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-14
When you’re in a rut, sometimes you gotta count on your friends to get you out.
Can’t say I loved the Eagles from the jump, but I’ve come around to trust them because my guys Steak and Degen do. I also did some digging and the more I dig the more I like.
Last week both teams won and covered the spread fairly easily, but it was the Rams who made the big splash destroying the Vikings as a short “home” dog. Jalen Hurts was far from a masterclass, but he was effective and didn’t make any mistakes against a strong Packers defense.
As I said last week, there is a drop off in QB performance when they are returning from a concussion and Hurts certainly showed some rust, but he was never asked to do much and when he was - he came through.
The bigger storyline is Saquon against the Rams D. The first time they played he had a field day going off for 255 yards on the ground. Maybe the Rams are able to scheme up a plan to slow him down. But DeVonta Smith was absent in that game and AJ Brown had a big week. Certainly tough to see McVay letting Saq run that wild again, but I think we get a big game from the Eagles wide-outs once AJ Brown finishes his book report.
The issue with stopping the Eagles is that they are beefy all around. Come the playoffs it’s tough to bet against the beef. AND I LOVE BEEF.
Eagles star LB, Nakobe Dean, was injured last week and won’t be suiting up. But this is the playoffs baby, next man up. DC Vic Fangio has done a phenomenal job turning this defense around and it will all come down to if he’s able to get pressure on Stafford. When pressured, Stafford is a bottom five QB in the league, when he’s left clean he’s top five.
I think they can shut down Kyren Williams, pressure Stafford, and limit what’s asked from Jalen Hurts. And if I believe all those things, it’s tough to see a way they don’t come away with a win.
Finally, and most importantly - you need a villain come Championship week. No one makes a better villain than the city of Philadelphia. Last week they got blasted for heckling Packers fans and this week they break the spirit of a Rams team who everyone wants to support after the fires in LA. It only makes sense for them to ruin the feel good story.
GO BIRDS!
The Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) DK
Ravens at Bills +1.5 Total 51.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 6-11-1
SUNDAY NIGHT STEAK!
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER!
Two Quarterbacks who are leading the MVP conversation and total in the 50’s means Steak just can’t help himself but see a vintage slugfest with minimal scoring. It’s just how he’s wired.
Their matchup in Week 4 stayed under the total of 47.5, and Steak says everyone plays zig-zag and assumes this one goes over the inflated of 51.5.
Fun fact - in his seven playoff games Lamar Jackson has never had a game go over.
Harbaugh and McDermott have both shown a tendency to play conservative in big games, and with a likely AFC Championship game in Kansas City on deck - this one is ripe for an Under.
The Pick: UNDER 51.5 (-110) DK
College Football National Championship
We hosted a spaces for the Penn State/ND game last week for some shit talking and breakdowns of the game. It went very well and the feedback was great, so we of course had to do another for the National Championship game. It did not disappoint.
The spaces is recorded so you can go back and listen as if it were a podcast. Click the link below:
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State -8.5 Total 46.5
Let’s just go ahead and address the elephant in the room: that’s a pretty big fucking spread. This line opened 9.5 and was hit with some ND money, but that opener sure is telling. Is it due to the lack of respect for Notre Dame, or are the oddsmakers just valuing Ohio States roster with NFL talent a bit too much? I’m not here to decipher that. What I can tell you is that I unfortunately think it’s the right number.
As a Notre Dame fan, I give the Irish about a 10% chance of winning this game. I was nervous about Indiana, really confident against Georgia, and fairly confident against Penn State in terms of leaving the game victorious. On Monday, January 20th, I truly am just hoping the Irish can keep it close and respectable. You might think that’s a pathetic approach for me as a fan, but I would counter that by telling you I’ve endured enough pain and live in reality.
Steak and I will be boots on ground once again. We were at the Orange Bowl so ND’s record in games we attend is 1-0 (new system?), but neither of us are trying to convince ourselves the Irish can win. The question is can they cover.
I am not capable of breaking this game down from an X and O standpoint of telling you the advantage and disadvantages either team have in this matchup. You should know that by now if you’ve been following us. The only chance either of us feel ND has in this game is Marcus Freemans coaching ability to get this Notre Dame roster to play harder than their opponent. So far, they’ve done just that. Throughout the regular season full of mostly cupcakes, their talent and skill was able to shine. In the College Football Playoff, it’s a different battle. One which they have yet to falter, because this team just feels like they are built different. The play that I am clinging onto the most is Jeremiyah Loves 2 yard touchdown run against Penn State. The effort it took for him to score exemplifies the grit and determination this entire team has to win.
Ohio State is far more talented than Notre Dame and has way more playmakers. That’s no secret. But they still have Ryan Day. This is a coach that got mind fucked and lost at home to the worst Michigan team we’ve seen in a long time. I will give him and their team credit - they’ve responded well, and it just might be the best thing to happen to them if they ultimately win the National Championship. But I still think there is a little bit of vulnerability deep down within this team, and Notre Dame needs to rattle them the same way the Wolverines did in Columbus.
Our bet for this game has already been decided. It should be mentioned that we’ve had one of the best years betting College Football since starting this newsletter. We chose to stop tracking during Bowl SZN because it’s just to difficult to know who’s in and who’s out, but in the games that matter (playoffs) we’ve been doing very well and went 2-0 last weekend with totals. Steak has spoken, and it’s a total once again:
I agree. My score prediction for this game is OSU 27 -13.
Notre Dame will have one of the better defenses this Ohio State team has faced all season, similar to what I said about Penn State. Granted PSU was still able to put up 24 points in that game, I still believe Al Golden and this Irish D will give Ohio State some fits. My concern is that the Buckeyes will pull away late. That’s why my bet in this game will be Notre Dame to cover the 1H.
I’m also just not overly thrilled with Riley Leonard. He’s a nice kid and a game manager, but nowhere near elite. Can the Irish put up points against the Buckeyes? I just don’t see it but obviously hope I’m wrong.
The guy I’m banking on is Jeremiyah Love. I don’t do many college player prop bets but did hit Mitchell Evans in the Orange Bowl. I’ll be going to Love in some way shape or form. Likely over his rushing yards. I just think he’s shown enough flashes of being back to midseason form rather than the banged up RB who’s seen limited action the past few games.
Regardless of what happens, this Notre Dame team has played their assess off and salvaged the season after losing to Northern Illinois. I am beyond impressed with what Marcus Freeman has done with this roster and battled through adversity dealing with tons of injuries to star players throughout the season. There are no moral victories, but I am always content with a team that’s at least “tough”. I feel confident that ND is going to make Ohio State scratch and claw for every point on every possession. I just hope it’s something they can do for 4 quarters. But you know that old saying “hope in one hand, shit in the other”.
Go Irish.
The Pick: UNDER 46.5 (-110)
RECAP:
NFL
Lions TTO 33.5 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Eagles -6 (-110) DK- Greg’s Best Bet
Ravens/Bills UNDER 51.5 (-110) - Steak’s Best Bet
CFB
UNDER 46.5 (-112) - Steak
ND 1H +5.5 (-110) - Degen