Another Week Closer to Glory
NFC West and NFC North
Quick note before jumping in - we do our best to give credit where it’s due, and a lot of our analysis comes from Warren Sharp’s preseason guide. If you’re a big data nerd then you’ll love it. **Not a paid promo, but we wouldn’t mind a paid promo - so if you buy it because of us, feel free DM him and let him know!**
For the intro’s going forward we want to point out a trend/opportunity on season long bets. Why not start with a therapy session - this is a safe space, right?
In 2022 we bet the Panthers under win total. They started terribly and we got excited. Then, Matt Rhule got fired. The team got inspired under Steve Wilks and went on go over. Then again in 2023 Degen was on the Raiders under because Jimmy G stinks and Josh McDaniels is terrible. Right and Right. Jimmy benched, McDaniels fired, Raiders get hot down the stretch and go over the total. Piss.
The lesson my friends is this: Beware of teams that are close to implosion. A fired HC can be a tremendous motivator to a team that’s down and out.
We are entering year FOUR of the newsletter. This shit takes a lot of time, but we love it. It’s free and we’ll keep it that way. To those of you who pay - you’re contribution is GREATLY appreciated. Those of you who don’t, we still love you and we’d love you even more if you shared it. Thanks!
NFC West:
Divisions played:
Odds to win division:
49ers -190
Rams +330
Seahawks +700
Cardinals +1300
Arizona Cardinals
2023 Record: 4-13
2024 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +8000
Everyone was on the Cardinals under last year, Degen crew included. We hit, but it wasn’t easy. Jonathan Gannon and his team of coordinators return for year two and with them comes a bit of excitement. Kyler Murray added Marvin Harrison Jr. but lost Marquis Brown and Rondale Moore. We’d call that a net win. In addition to bringing in a strong left tackle in Jonah Williams they got some nice pieces to ramp up the defense (Justin Jones, Sean Murphy Bunting, Bilal Nichols). But the rebuild doesn’t stop there. This draft was big. Quantity and quality. 12 picks, 7 in the first 3 rounds.
The fallout from Kliff Kingsbury is over, and Arizona can move forward. They weren’t favored in a single game in 2023. Despite that, AZ squeezed out four wins with Kyler Murray missing the first half of the season, but the injures bug bit harder than just at QB. In total heath they raked #28 on offense and #30 on defense (Warren Sharp). They even started Clayton Tune and had a moment with Joshua Dobbs.
A win total of 6.5 is a modest hike. But zoom out and look at the schedule. They could be poised for a late run. After starting the season against a tough slate (9 of 10 expected to be over .500) they close out the year with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. We think the ideal time to buy stock in the red birds if after their Week 11 BYE. In the past under Kingsbury, this team fell off down the stretch. We think Gannon reverses that trend. They showed a lot of grit last year, got healthy, and infused the roster with talent. Still a long way to go before they are a legit competitor, but things are falling into place.
James Conner continues to be a dog coming off a 1,000 yard season while missing four games, and they added Trey Benson (FSU) for some relief/insurance. We’ll have our eyes on them as an underdog in the beginning of the year and think they make a late push to cover the 6.5 wins.
Best Bet:
OVER 6.5 wins (Greg)
Gannon COY +2000 (Greg)
Los Angeles Rams
2023 Record: 10-7
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3000
All praise Sean McVay. Despite having (on paper) one of the ugliest rosters in the NFL the Rams were able to put up double digit wins, closing the year on a 7-1 stretch with the only loss coming on the road in overtime against Baltimore.
Can that magic be repeated? We’re not so sure. Aaron Donald retired and to fix that gaping hole the Rams went all in on defense. Drafting five defensive players with their first six picks. Another difficult loss is DC Raheem Morris leaving for the Falcons head coaching job.
To protect Matt Stafford the Rams added Pro-Bowler OL Jonah Jackson (Detroit). They certainly have their share of weapons with Nacua/Kupp/Kyren Williams. The run game will get some help with Blake Corum (Michigan), and new treat for Stafford with WR Ladd McConkey. Regardless of how good the offense might sound on paper we think the D gets over extended.
LA is favored in 11 games, won 10 last year, have a mediocre strength of schedule, but still post a win total at 8.5. If Raheem had stayed we might sing a different song, but the lack of talent AND leadership will be an issue on D.
Best Bet:
UNDER 8.5 Wins (+120) - Degen + Steak
San Francisco 49ers
2023 Record: 12-5
2023 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +600
Quick PTSD recap for the 49ers. The Super Bowl loss was about as painful as it can be.
Dre Greenlaw tears his Achilles running onto the field
Ray-Ray McCloud fumbles a punt to give KC their only TD in regulation
Blocked extra point
Any one of those extremely rare events goes in their favor and it’s likely they walk away with the Lombardi. Hell, even Kittle and Deebo were injured and couldn’t play in OT.
It’s a new year, but you know that loss still stings. The Niners were the #1 offense in 2023 and they return everyone (Aiyuk pending). Not only that, but SF added WR Ricky Pearsall (Florida) in the draft. The Niners had four players average 4+ catches per game last year. Tons of weapons, a great game manager at QB, and one of the best offensive minds in the NFL at the helm. Find a weakness - we dare you. It’s certainly not on offense, and they are loaded on defense as well. They are one of the only teams favored in every game.
DC Steve Wilks took a lot of the blame for the SB loss and the Niners let him go, promoting Nick Sorensen internally. We aren’t fading this squad as they should run through the NFC West. Steak says this is their year and going all in.
Best Bets:
Over 11.5 Wins (+120) - Steak
SB +600 - Steak
Seattle Seahawks
2023 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +5500
It’s the end of an era with Pete Carroll retiring (okay, he was kinda fired). A 14 year run comes to a close. Former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald comes in to lead the Seahawks into a new dawn. The problem is that Geno Smith and a very weak offense line is not a recipe for immediate success. There is certainly no lack of sex appeal and we get why people would want to buy stock, but we’re not. The Seahawks could struggle to find their new identity in the post Carroll era.
One of our biggest red flags is Ryan Grubbs (Washington Huskies OC). Well, not just him, but something about a guy who has only coached in college coming in with a former defensive coordinator doesn’t sit right. Macdonald should be able to get the defense in order, but leading a team vs. leading a defense are two very different objectives. CB Devon Witherspoon is a stud, but they lost both safeties (Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams).
Even though we like Macdonald, the coaching changes don’t give us a sense of immediate success. Seattle has a bottom tier O-Line, which is not great for a guy like Geno. He took a step back last year and it could get worse. If it does, Sam Howell is the backup.
Best Bet:
UNDER 7.5 Wins (-140) - Greg
Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 750.5 Yards (-110) - Steak
NFC North
Divisions Played: NFC West, AFC East
Odds to win division:
Lions +140
Packers +200
Bears +300
Vikings +1000
Chicago Bears
2023 Record: 7-10
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +3500
A lot to digest in the Windy City. Let’s start with the mundane. Matt Eberflus enters his third year, and he does so with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Shane Waldron from Seattle comes over to lead the offense. It’s tough to get a clear read, because Pete Carroll was so controlling, but he could be a nice fit with a fun offense. Similarly, Eric Washington was the Assistant HC in Buffalo under McDermott, and he’ll be leading the Defense. Yawn.
Now the fun part! This fanbase is excited, and rightfully so. They made a lot of moves and added Caleb Williams to lead the charge. The whole offense is new, and the whole offense is better than last year. Their average total was at 42 last year, this year it's just shy of 46 - with a better defense. They also get a BYE in Week 7 to recalibrate, which could be huge for a rookie QB and a new OC.
DJ Moore and Cole Kmet return, but more importantly they added Keenan Allen, D’andre Swift in free agency along with top draft picks Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. It was an extremely top heavy draft for the Bears with five total picks, and two in the Top 10.
In addition to the influx of talent, the Bears also have one of the easiest schedules. It’s THE easiest in terms of overall defenses and pass defenses (per Warren Sharp). Tons of hype, but unlike last year it’s well warranted. Steak is going Niners Super Bowl, but the team and hype he’s really buying all into is in Chicago.
Best Bets:
Caleb Williams ROY (+135) - Steak & Greg
Caleb Williams Most Passing Yards Rookie (-130) - Steak
Eberflus COTY +800 - Steak
Detroit Lions
2023 Record: 12-5
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1200
You have got to love Dan Campbell, but you might have to love OC Ben Johnson even more. Johnson easily could have left this offseason for a head coaching gig, but decided to stay and finish what they started. In 2021 the Lions went 3-13-1. They’ve shown remarkable improvement every year, finishing with 12 wins and one quarter of football away from a Super Bowl birth in 2023.
There truly isn’t anything to not like about this team…
The O-Line if phenomenal, debatably the best in the league.
The running backs are fantastic. Almost had two 1,000 yard rushers in 2023.
Strong WR core with Sam LaPorta coming off a monster first rookie season.
Goff got paid, and plays 14 of his 17 games indoors.
The run D was strong and they added DJ Reader.
The weakness was singular and it was gaping - the secondary was terrible. If anything the Lions went overboard to solve that problem. They signed Carlton Davis (Bucs) and Amik Robertson (Raiders). They went CB for their 1st and 2nd round pick. Now, the talent is there and we expect Campbell to keep this group hungry for more. It might take a couple of games to gel, but luckily the Lions start the year with a very easy schedule of opponents. Greg says it’s the Lions year. Degen says they’re a bit too popular, but if everything goes according to plan, there’s now way Goff isn’t in the conversation for MVP.
Best Bet:
Last undefeated team (+700) - Greg
Win Total OVER 10.5 (-120) - Greg
NFC (+550) - Greg
Jared Goff MVP (+4000) - Degen + Greg
Green Bay Packers
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1800
A year ago, the biggest question the Packers had was if Jordan Love could be the guy. Fast forward and he’s now the highest paid player in the NFL. The youngest team in the NFL looks to make an encore performance. With Goff and Love getting paid, and Caleb Williams joining the Bears - this division offers a lot of hype going forward.
2023 got off to a bad start, but you have to give tons of credit to HC Matt LeFluer and his staff for making the adjustments that allowed the Pack to flourish in the second half of the season. We had him as our Coach of the Year last year, and although it was a valiant effort, other candidates were more deserving. Green Bay opened the season at 2-5, before clicking and finishing on a 7-3 run. Then they destroyed the Cowboys in the Wildcard Round before coming up just short in the Divisional Round to the 49ers.
Aaron Jones left for the Vikings but Josh Jacobs (Raiders) steps into the role of lead back. The WR core is talented, young, and deep. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Not to mention TE Luke Musgrave. Jordan Love has more than enough weapons and a strong O Line to protect him.
The Packers open 2024 in Brazil vs. the Eagles as the NFL continues its global push. This team is strong across the board and they added 11 players in the draft with a focus on the secondary, LB’s, and the offensive line. The “weakest link” could be the secondary, but they signed Xavier McKinney (Giants) so it should be better than last year. With Joe Barry gone the defense should get a bump with new coordinator Jeff Hafley (Boston College).
We bought Packers and Love stock last year, and although everything seems to be shaping up nicely for a strong second year we have our eyes on the Lions and Bears in the North. It would also be a shame to buy them low last year, and potentially give units back when their stock is at their highest.
Best Bet:
No Bets
Minnesota Vikings
2023 Record: 7-10
2024 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +8000
Everyone else in the North is looking to run as the Vikings look to figure out how to walk again. They (rightfully) let Kirk Cousins go, drafted JJ McCarthy, and brought in Sam Darnold to bridge the gap. Darnold will have his work cut out for him with one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, but he does have Jet Jefferson and they added Aaron Jones in the offseason to replace the remarkably useless Alexander Mattison. Jordan Addison was the moron of the summer getting a DUI just days after Vikings 4th rounder, Khyree Jackson was tragically killed in a car crash. Unclear what/if a suspension is coming his way, but regardless the Vikings will need all the help they can get and he just set them back.
We are believers in head coach Kevin O’Connell. He did his best to keep Minnesota competitive with after the Cousins injury but it wasn’t enough with Nick Mullins, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall. The QB position should have more stability as they build McCarthy up for the future and give Darnold one last chance to prove his NFL worth. DC Brian Flores did a fantastic job fixing the Defense last year but he still has his work cut out for him as the D shuffled a ton of guys in and out through free agency.
The Vikings will embark on a mini rebuild. Medio-Kirk Cousins was not the answer, and we don’t think the Vikings will regress as much as your average fan just because he’s gone. Don’t forget, his high water mark as a Viking was losing to Daniel Jones in the Playoffs. His stats in Minnesota show a year over year decline. Although, there is nothing to be overly excited about (yet), we certainly aren’t fading.
Best Bet:
No Bets
We’ll see you next week with Part 3 of 4 for our NFL Futures focusing on the AFC East and South.
Until then subscribe, share, and leave us some notes on things we got wrong.
RECAP
NFC West
Cardinals OVER 7.5 wins (+125) - Greg
Jonathan Gannon COY (+2000) - Greg
Rams UNDER 8.5 Wins (+120) - Degen + Steak
49ers OVER 11.5 Wins (+120) - Steak
49ers SB (+600) - Steak
Seahawks UNDER 7.5 Wins (-140) - Greg
Jaxon Smith-Njigba UNDER 750.5 Yards (-110) - Steak
NFC North
Caleb Williams ROY (+135) - Steak and Greg
Caleb Williams Most Passing Yards Rookie (-130) - Steak
Matt Eberflus COTY (+800) - Steak
Lions Last Undefeated Team (+700) - Greg
Lions Win Total OVER 10.5 (-120) - Greg
Lions NFC (+550) - Greg
Goff MVP (+4000) - Degen + Greg