Arnold Palmer Invitational
The Streak Comes to an End
Before we dive in, let’s give a tip of the cap to Sepp Straka. The Austrian built like a brick shithouse cashed as a 125/1 winner at last weeks Honda Classic. Our boy Shane Lowry (+2200) made one hell of a push on Sunday, but was a bit unlucky on 18 as the rain started pouring down. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t have even been exciting if it weren’t for Daniel Berger pooping his pants to start the final round. So for that, the biggest of thank you’s to DB.
The run of long-shots continues. Four of the last five tour winners previously had zero career PGA wins. Given this trend, you can be sure most bettors will be adding more darts to their card, but we still feel like a top guy is due. A lot of big names sat out last weekend, and a few return to the API. This might be the one.
Bryson DeChambeau (last years API winner) announced that he’ll be out this year. This reshuffled the odds a bit. We now have Rahm +850 as the heaviest favorite, with Rory behind him at +1300. What’s worth mentioning is that foreigners love this course - specifically the British. In the last 4 years, a British player has finished either 1st or 2nd.
2021 - Lee Westwood 2nd
2020 - Tyrell Hatton 1st
2019 - Matt Fitzpatrick 2nd
2018 - Rory McIlroy 1st
Our approach for this years Arnold Palmer is to have a top foreign player, a brit that’s due, and a healthy dose of solids. Let’s get into it.
Horses:
Viktor Hovland +1600 — Typically we pick 2-3 horses…but not today. Vik is the third favorite on the board, so we’re just going to double our units and go all in. He won the Dubai Dessert Classic back in January, and followed that up with a poor showing back in the states at the WMPO (missed cut). Jet lag? Perhaps. He bounced back strong at the Genesis finishing 4th, and did so with poor putting (per nerd stats). Hov has already tasted victory this year, and is now rested after taking last week off. Love him in this spot. Also just kinda love him in general…
Solids:
Paul Casey +4500 — Here’s our lad! Paul has played twice in 2022, with both finishes being in the top 20. He finished 10th at the API in 2021 after a poor performance in the final round (+2 on Sunday). 45/1 is some serious respect from Vegas for the 142nd ranked golfer in the world. Grab a pint of London Pride and get ready to sing PAUL SAVE THE QUEEN!
Sam Burns +4500 — Loved Burns two weeks at in the Genesis. How did that turn out? Not well. Sam missed the cut. In fact, he’s missed 3 straight cuts. A very poor 2022. But we are buying the dip. Sam is a young stud in the making. His finishes in 2021 between October - December were 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 14th.
Max Homa +4500 — If Max makes the cut, he’s in contention. He’s finished 14th and 10th in the last two tournaments he’s played. The one concern is that he’s a west coast guy, and this will be his first east coast course played in 2022.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500 — Ugh, fucking Bez. Guy let us down last weekend with a blowup on the last 3 holes Saturday. He finished the third round going bogey, double bogey, bogey. Just said “fuck it”. Then he came out Sunday and shot 4 under. Hopefully he shook off the demons and is ready to get right. A round with Tom Brady should have him nice and loose…
Long-shots:
Lanto Griffin +7500 — This might sound weird, or just wrong in general, but 75/1 seems like a little respect for ole Lanto (odds via Fanduel).
Kevin Na +12000 — How can you pass up a min bet at 120/1? More like Kevin Ya.
Sam Ryder +16000 — The guy who made the hole-in-one on 16 at WMPO. He also miraculously finished 9th last weekend after being 6 over par through the first 8 holes to start the tournament (lol). We like playing a local guy, and he’s from Winter Park, FL which is just 30 mins away from Bay Hill.
Now let’s check in with the smart guys
