The NFL Draft Schedule:
Day 1: Round 1 — Thursday 8pm
Day 2: Rounds 2-3 — Friday 7pm
Day 3: Rounds 4-7 — Saturday @ 12pm
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Helpful Mock Drafts:
Mel Kiper & Todd McCshay Mock Draft
The NFL Draft is one of the most entertaining sporting events to bet on. As a kid, I always wanted to attend it live at Radio City when the old format (which I preferred) was rounds 1-3 all day Saturday, then rounds 4-7 on Sunday. Now the NFL changes the locations each year, and round 1 is it’s own primetime event held on Thursday. You can choose to be your own expert, or you can follow the experts. We’ve included some of the best when it comes to mock drafting (see above). If you have a hunch on a player or team selection, go for it. Our approach is similar to betting on everything - read the market, watch the line movement and follow the money.
Depending on what state you live in and what books are available to you, the odds will vary. We’re choosing to use Fanduel Sportsbook as our reference. If you see a better number on a bet we like, do not hesitate to let us know!
It is important to note that this is probably the most unpredictable draft in the last ~10 years. On Monday, there was a HUGE shift in odds as to who will be the #1 overall pick. All along, the market had Aidan Hutchinson favored, but overnight there was a huge line adjustment to Travon Walker. Walker is now -250 to be the first pick taken by the Jags. The rumor is new GM Trent Balke is in love with his size, but there is still an internal battle. New HC Doug Pederson is keen on Ikeme Ekwonu (NC St OT) and the owner wants Hutchinson.
The BetMGM draft betting data tells us two things if we analyze the ticket % vs handle %. There’s a large discrepancy on Hutchinson going UNDER 2.5. 69% of the tickets are on the over, but 59% of the money is on the under. This tells me that someone knows something, and I think it’s that there’s no way Detroit passes on him at #2. Remember: we always follow the money.
I feel the best way to break this down is by position groups. Let’s start with offense today, and we’ll finish up with defense (part 2) tomorrow.
QUARTERBACKS
(Liberty QB Malik Willis and Pitt QB Kenny Pickett)
This years QB draft class is the weakest it’s been in a very, very long time. Since 2000, there have been 39 QB’s selected in the top 10. This year, it would be an upset to see one QB taken in the top 10. Some experts have said they view the QB options in this years class as “career backups”.
Nevertheless, teams are desperate to take a shot on the most important position in sports. Over the past few weeks, Malik Willis has made a huge surge in becoming the now favorite to be the first QB selected. Here are a few bets offered between the two:
FIRST QB TO BE SELECTED:
MALIK WILLIS -140
KENNY PICKETT +150TEAM TO DRAFT MALIK WILLIS:
STEELERS +150
SAINTS +300WILLIS DRAFT POSITION:
OVER 13.5 -130
UNDER 13.5 -100TEAM TO DRAFT KENNY PICKETT:
PANTHERS +175
SAINTS +200PICKET DRAFT POSITION:
OVER 15.5 -115
UNDER 15.5 -115
Malik Willis seems like the lotto ticket. He’s short, but he can run and make explosive plays. Whereas Kenny Pickett seems like the safe play, and your more prototypical QB.
I’m fading all things QB in this years draft, specifically Kenny Pickett.
As for Malik - It’s not so much a market play as it is a gut play, but I can absolutely see the Steelers taking a shot on Willis. Sure they’re favored to take him, but keep in mind this is a tricky bet considering a team could trade up. My best bets between these two:
PICKETT OVER 15.5
STEELERS TO DRAFT WILLIS +150
There are three other QB’s worth noting that you may or may not have heard of. Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell. All were fun to watch in college, but the gap between Willis/Pickett to any of these names is significant. The one player gaining some steam as of late is Desmond Ridder. Apparently, he’s carried himself very well in interviews. I had a ticket on Ridder to win the Heisman, and watched him closely this year. What’s my scouting report on him you ask? C-. I think he stinks, and I’m really not high on any of the others.
For that reason, my favorite bet out of the QB position is:
UNDER 3.5 QB’s DRAFTED IN ROUND 1 -250
DESMOND RIDER OVER 30.5 -115
WIDE RECEIVERS
(Jameson Williams, Garret Wilson and Drake London)
What this years draft class lacks in QB’s, it makes up for in WR’s. It’s a 3 headed monster, with the guys above expected to all be selected right around the top 10. Look how tight the oddsmakers have it:
On a pure talent scale, most are saying Jameson Williams is the “best” receiver out there. The problem is he suffered an ACL injury in the National Championship game just a few months ago. If not for that, he’d most likely be the heavy favorite to be the first WR selected. Thanks to modern medicine, and the rehab updates on his Instagram story, Williams has now surged back into the 2nd spot odds-wise of being selected. Apparently, he’s expected to be ready for training camp.
Even outside of the top dogs, you still have a deep WR class. With guys like Chris Olave and Treylon Burks, some team is going to get a quick contributor in the late first round. One of the big moves we saw earlier this month was the total WR selected in round 1 move from 5.5 to 6.5. The line is now:
WR’S DRAFTED IN ROUND 1:
OVER 6.5 -105
UNDER 6.5 -125
Loved the over at 5.5, but I’m not so sure at the current number. Especially with the under juiced at -125. It would not surprise me to see 7 guys go, but we aren’t confident enough to lay it. However, we do have faith in which guy will be going first. I’m buying all of Garrett Wilsons stock.
The Atlanta Falcons pick 9th and the NY Jets are picking 10th. Both teams need a WR. Even though the Falcons just took Pitts last year, they got blindsided with the Calvin Ridley fiasco. I don’t think they have a choice but to secure another elite pass catcher. The ONLY thing that would scare me off these bets are if Jameson Williams stock rises today (the day you’re reading this) or Thursday (the day of the draft). Should Williams number shoot up, then I am OFF these bets.
FIRST WR SELECTED: GARRETT WILSON -125
GARRETT WILSON UNDER 9.5 -115
OFFENSIVE LINEMAN
(NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu)
There’s been a recent shakeup between the 1st and 2nd ranked offensive lineman within the past week. About a month ago, not only was Evan Neal (Alabama) favored to be the first OL taken, he was also at one point -150 to be the first overall pick taken. This was before the Jags franchised LT Cam Robinson. Now, the Jags focus is back to defense.
Evan Neal hasn’t necessarily fallen off, but Ekwonu has been the talk of the town recently. There’s even been some rumbling Charles Cross (Miss St) might be worth a few nickels. Given his line moves in the market, we’ll be making a play on Cross.
The latest reports are the the Jets will not pass up on Ekwonu if he’s there at 4. Parlay that rumor with the fact that he’s now the odds on favorite to be the first OL taken, we’re confident in going under on his draft position.
Our second and last OL bet we lean towards is with the New York Giants. The GMen have shaken things up at HC and GM. They’ve made it clear they are not giving up on Danny Dimes just yet, and that he hasn’t been given a fair shake. Well with a healthy Saquan and Kenny G, the main area to address would be in the offensive line. With the 5th pick, we like the GMen to go with either Neal or Cross.
IKEM EKWONU UNDER 4.5 -170
GIANTS TO DRAFT OL FIRST -125
CHARLES CROSS UNDER 6.5 -210
This concludes our Offense version of the NFL Draft. Defense will be in your inbox Thursday morning at 8am sharp!
To recap the picks: