(Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson)
IT’S DRAFT DAY!
Hello again! If you haven’t already, you can revisit Pt. 1 sent out yesterday morning to reference the mock drafts and BetMGM chart for betting data. We also included our best bets for offensive players. Now, let’s turn to the defense.
As you can see, at least half of the draft is projected to be defensive players. That’s not too surprising. What is surprising? How about the fact that 2 of the top 3 picks are expected to be defensive ends. Last year (and most years) the top of the draft was dominated by QB’s and offensive skill players.
The 2021 draft order went like this:
1. QB
2. QB
3. QB
4. TE
5. WR
6. WR
7. OT
Not only is it unlikely to see a QB taken in the top 10 this year, but the first 10/15 picks are expected by most mock experts to be defensive players. A very unique draft, which is quite refreshing if you ask me. Now let’s try to find some winners.
THE NUMBER ONE PICK
(Projected first overall pick Travon Walker)
We mentioned this in Pt. 1, but there was a huge shakeup at #1. Weeks ago, you could have found Walker as high as 30/1 to be the first player selected. As of Tuesday morning, he jumped from +300 to -225. The odds have only increased since…
I think your best bet is to stay away from this one. The rumors around Jacksonville are flying all over the place. Like we said, internal battle between the Owner, GM and HC. Everyone wants a different guy. There’s no sense in trying to bet on which guy gets their way. We’re confident it’s going to be Walker because we can’t fathom the line movement being so significant if there wasn’t truth to the hype. But at this number (-300) it’s just now worth it. We have another bet in mind - and it’s at #2.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
AIDAN HUTCHINSON TO BE SELECTED #2 -125
The Lions just drafted Penei Sewell, so they are not reaching for an OT. The pick is absolutely going to be a Defensive End, and I think they would be out of their mind to pass up on the local stud from Michigan. Not to mention, Kayvon Thibodeaux’s player position prop is now listed at O/U 4.5 to be selected. If he was seriously expected to be going 2nd overall, I don’t think the oddsmakers would have the line set at that number.
Let’s talk about one more guy who’s made a HUGE surge as of late…
(FSU DE Jermaine Johnson)
Now let me tell ya, I am not an FSU fan. However, I did bet on them quite a bit this year (lol), and this guy jumped off the screen. He looked like a man playing with children. Just absolutely dominant and a nightmare for the opposing O-line. How they got him to transfer from Georgia is beyond me.
Keep in mind, this is a guy that Peter King has being drafted 23rd overall in his mock. I don’t want to trash Peter just yet, but…come on dude. Warren Sharps mock has JJ going 9 to the Seahawks, which would be a perfect fit. Either way you slice it, we think this guy finds his way into the top 10, and clearly so do the oddsmakers. His over/under is split right down the middle in terms of ticket count (see the BetMGM char), but 78% of the money has been hitting the under. We are following that.
JERMAINE JOHNSON UNDER 10.5 -250
DEFENSIVE BACKS
(Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner DB from Cincinnati)
I debated on what picture to use for this category. It was either Gardner or Derek Stingley Jr, but I can’t pass up a guy with the nickname “Sauce”. For a while, Sauce was the heavy favorite to be the first DB taken in the draft. He was even strongly projected to be a top 5 pick. However, that’s all changed.
A few weeks ago, you could have gotten Stingley at 100/1 to be the 3rd overall pick. His draft position opened at 12.5. This is either an incredible smoke screen by Love Smith and the Texans, but clearly the oddsmakers aren’t taking any chances. We’ve also see Sauce Gardners player position drastically change as well. What was once a lock to be a top 5 pick is now favored to go 5th at best…
We have no play on either of these players, but we do have a play in this position. There are 4 names that have been in most peoples first round mock - Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr, Trent McDuffie and Andrew Booth Jr. Outside of that, it would be a HUGE reach for a team to take a 5th DB in the top 32. Even Andrew Booth Jr’s player position prop is at 30.5. For that reason, we love…
UNDER 4.5 DB’S SELECTED IN THE FIRST ROUND -150
That’ll do it for the Draft! Remember to follow us on Twitter @thedegenweekly for live picks and also daily MLB plays (we are 93-57-1 YTD).
Recap of our Defensive Draft Bets:
AIDAN HUTCHINSON #2 OVERALL -125
JERMAINE JOHNSON UNDER 10.5 -250
UNDER 4.5 DB’S IN ROUND ONE -150
You can also listen to our daily podcast on Spotify. Good luck and stay sharp!