Bonus Edition: College Football Playoff
Round Two
A New Year and a Loaded Day
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 37-39-1 (-16.13 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
The College Football Playoff
Bowl SZN has really started to kick ass! These games are still difficult to cap, but thankfully they’ve been entertaining. We are trying to get our eyes on as many of these young players as possible to take some notes for future bets next season. We’ll put together a list of some guys we keep an eye and potentially bet on.
If you want to watch Steak and I discuss round 2 you can do so here:
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Peach Bowl
Texas vs Arizona St +13 Total 51.5
Shoutout to Steak. He loved Texas last week against Clemson. Said it would be a smash spot, so I leaned in by taking their team total over. His spread bet and my TT both cashed. After unsuccessfully fading Texas for the second year in a row, I finally respect them and even got some units back. However…that might come to an end rather quickly.
It hasn’t been a great start for the dogs in these playoffs. Round 1 was a bit of an embarrassment with every favorite winning and covering.
Last night Boise State gave Penn State a hell of a game for 3.5 quarters before the Nittany Lions pulled away late. Going into that game my lean was certainly Boise. Steak had a great point on the stream about how the Broncos were sneakily becoming at trendy dog, as nobody really respected Franklin to win a “big game”. He was right. Now we wonder if Arizona State is the sleepy big dog. If that’s the case, we want to jump in.
The Sun Devils have been an awesome story this year. I’m sure you’re familiar with RB Cam Skattebo, but are you familiar with their 34 year old head coach?
We faded Arizona State in the Conference Championship and it was zero fun. No interest in doing it again. On that flip side, even though we cashed with Texas last round, neither Steak nor I are overly impressed with Texas. They still made Cade Klubnik look like he was a heisman contender - to the point where Steak is already putting his Heisman bet in for next year (idiot). Not only that, I personally am still not sold on QB Quinn Ewers. He’s good, but not great. I also have my concerns with the defense. They’re a solid unit but they just don’t seem quite as dominant as last year.
Will this be one of those games where right before kickoff we look around and all of us are holding an Arizona State ticket, and the Devils are indeed a trendy if not trendier dog that Boise? Maybe. But even being fully aware of that risk, we still like Arizona State to give the Longhorns all they can handle.
The Pick: Arizona State +13 (-110)
Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs Oregon +2.5 Total 55.5
I’ve been very critical of Ryan Day, which I don’t really think should surprise anyone after that loss to Michigan. Yet I’m getting met with a lot of pushback from people who are accusing me of being an Ohio State hater. That is NOT necessarily the case.
If you’re new to following us, then allow me to remind everyone that Steak, Greg and I have bet Ohio State to win the Championship 2 out of the last 3 years. We also bet on CJ Stroud to win the heisman. We are not haters - we just have fatigue. In addition to that, we are also sick of Ryan Day. Can you really blame us? Just look at him.
Now here’s the problem. The problem is that Steak has planted his flag with the Oregon Ducks at the beginning of the season. So while we’re over here starting to MAYBE come back around on Ohio State, he can’t waiver, and I respect that. Steak is going down with the Oregon ship, and I will be there along side with a lifeboat. Steak has also made the prediction that whoever wins this game is winning it all, and I agree.
The Buckeyes had a great bounce back at home against Tennessee in round 1. That was a start-to-finish ass kicking. They looked like the most talented team in the country and Will Howard made some elite throws. I do think that had a little to do with Tennessee also not being quite that good, which I was warned of but didn’t take seriously. Nico is a year away from being a year away, and they lack playmakers on offense. Oregon is an entirely different beast, of which Ohio State is familiar with after having already lost to them earlier this season.
They say it’s hard to beat the same team twice. I used to always agree with that, but now I’m not so sure. Remember how Washington beat Oregon twice last year? Once in the regular season and again in the Conference Championship. I’m starting to think this could be the same result. I’ll be watching this game alongside Steak at a bar later and we will be live streaming on Twitch. Join us!
The Pick: Oregon +2.5 (-110)
Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame vs Georgia -1 Total 45.5
As a Notre Dame fan, this might be the most I have believed in a team in my lifetime. With that said, I am also fucking terrified of this game.
Last week I made Indiana +7.5 my largest wager of the season. It obviously lost, but I was really surprised by how many other people I saw betting on the Hoosiers. I thought ND had become a darling for most bettors and they would be on everyone's card. Turned out I was wrong. I’m now a little nervous that people have flipped the switch and started respecting the Irish after that win, which in turn means they are disrespecting Georgia.
The Dawgs certainly don’t look as good as the team they’ve fielded in years past when they won it all. I really think Notre Dame could hang with Georgia on a neutral field from a talent perspective, but what I fear the most is that Georgia’s mindset coming in is that they are the underdog who nobody is taking seriously. Regardless of who’s starting at QB, I still respect Kirby Smart enough to lean into that angle and have his team playing with their hair on fire.
Speaking of Carson Beck - it does indeed sound confirmed that he is out. This may be addition by subtraction. The backup came in the SEC Championship and the Dawgs were still able to pull off the win. Even if there’s a talent drop-off at the position, I fear the team may get a bump in play throughout the roster for their new QB, similar to what we see in hockey when a team makes a goalie change in need of a spark.
Notre Dame lacks playmakers on offense outside of their running backs. Jeremiyah Love is one of the best athletes I have ever seen put on a Notre Dame jersey. He broke off a 98 yard touchdown run against Indiana but didn’t play much after. There is speculation that he either had the flu or is banged up. I’m sure he will be a full go in this game, but if Georgia is smart (which I think they are) then they should stack the box, stop the run, and force Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm. Georgia has better athletes on defense than Indiana, and my biggest fear is they can be successful with this game plan whereas the Hoosiers were not.
To sum it all up - I think we get a defensive battle and the lowest scoring game of the College Football Playoff. I’m going with the under here from a football brain perspective, and Steak is unfortunately leaning Georgia given the reasons stated above about them being disrespected.
The Pick: Georgia -1 (Steak) / Under 45.5 (Degen)
Happy New Year!
Here’s a message from us that we posted on Twitter/X last night and want to be sure we share with our newsletter subscribers as well. Thank you all so much for the support. We look forward to growing this brand and wish you all a successful 2025.
RECAP:
College Football
Arizona St +13
Oregon +2.5
Georgia -1 (Steak) / Under 45.5 (Degen)