College Basketball
Weekly Check-in with Freddie Mills
Good morning Degenerates! We are back with some more College Basketball insights from Freddie Mills. The CBB Opening Night Preview sent out last week was very well received with tons of positive feedback. If you want more, we will provide, as Freddie has a wealth of knowledge he’s willing to share with our readers.
Freddie’s Season Record: 12-3 +8.23u
Just a reminder as a few people have asked - our content will always be free, and we are not putting anything premium behind a paywall. There are a number of you who pay to our newsletter as a pledge/contribution to support our work. It is greatly appreciated. Freddie is on the same page so anything he shares will be on his Twitter/X account which you can follow HERE. We’ll let him take it from here…
We are one week into the College Basketball season. Time to exhale for a moment. One. Two. Three. Okay back to work. Despite a lackluster weekend in terms of results I am happy with my process. Ralph Waldo Emerson once said “It's not the destination, it's the journey”. Amen to that, Ralph. We sometimes forget in today's results driven world that it is important to enjoy the journey, 'the getting there', is every bit as important as arriving at the destination.
Grab a coffee and let's continue that journey together.
Biggest risers and fallers after Week 1
One of the things I do on a weekly basis is check in with the computer models. How have they adjusted? Do I agree? Disagree? As mentioned in the season opening article oddsmakers rely on these models more than ever early to set the opening numbers. Models constantly adjust with new data however early in the season the market adjustments that this brings about are often flawed. A model trained with low data is often less accurate for a number of reasons such as the high variability that small datasets can introduce. This of course will lead to unstable model predictions. Any mathematical model with limited data is susceptible to error & is less likely to accurately represent what's to come. However this doesn’t stop oddsmakers from applying these new ratings into their lines when these teams play again. It’s our job to find those mistakes by correctly filtering through the small-sample “noise” that creates market inefficiencies. Let’s get into it.
Risers
Below are the top 15 risers and fallers after 1 week sorted by adjusted efficiency margin changes at Kenpom. Take a minute and look through each list and write down what you notice. Go.
So what did we learn?
Please contact me on twitter with your takeaways as this will be a very superficial list
Every team on the risers list is .500 or better except Idaho State. Hmm. Dig Deeper there Freddie
2 games, 2 covers (USC, Arizona State) as big underdogs. Ryan Looney has outperformed preseason expectations in four of his five seasons. Maybe this guy can coach. Over his five year tenure the Bengals rank 21st in lowest three point attempt rate. That is a good starting point as a big underdog as is a transfer PG who is extremely talented. Dylan Darling was believed to be the next big thing out of high school after breaking Adam Morrisons scoring record but injuries held him back at Washington State. I’ll keep an eye on them starting Saturday when they start a week long California trip.
North Florida- ‘The Birds of Trey’- 3-0 and the biggest riser. Surely you are on the way to being overvalued right??
UNF has won outright as big underdogs at South Carolina & Georgia Tech while covering as a 7 point favorite at home against Charleston Southern. Impressive. Matt Driscoll who has been at UNF since 2009 does the same thing every season: takes more threes than anyone else (1st in 3p rate last year), allows fewer threes than almost anyone else (12th in defensive 3PT attempt rate) & funnels everything to the rim (34th-most attempts allowed). Next up is a game at Georgia on Tuesday where adjustments will likely occur. After being 19 point dogs at USC & 14 point dogs at Georgia Tech I think this number opens at 10 or less. I will be on Georgia if that is the case. The biggest weaknesses of Driscoll's teams has been rebounding, stopping dribble penetration, defending the glass (345th in 2nd chance rate allowed last season and forcing turnovers. Through two games Georgia ranks 2nd nationally in rebound rate. I make this game Georgia -13.5 (88-74)
Vermont and John Becker on the fallers list after losing back to back games.
C’mon John lose a few more so I can get some value on you in Am-East play. I am not worried.
Tarleton State the biggest faller in terms of rank.
Lead guard Freddy Hicks has not played due to injury.
It took all of 1 week for one of my Preseason predictions to come through: Gonzaga is already in the top 5 in KenPom Efficiency ratings after starting 9th
*Barry Horowitz pat on the back*
UC Irvine & UC Santa Barbara are on a collision course in the Big West
Central Connecticut state is a team I need to dig into
Kyle Neptune man. It might be over.
Merrimack on the rising list not a surprise
Few midmajor programs are as synonymous with a system as Merrimack with their extended 2-3 zone (highest zone rate in all of division 1 last season). This can be a real tricky prep for opposing coaches. The Warriors were 5th nationally in turnover rate and 10th in eFG% allowed, and unlike most zones, they took away the 3-ball at a top 25 rate. I’d like to find a spot to play on them as a big underdog or with respect to an under in the games ahead. If nothing the Warriors will offer value in the first year in MAAC play
Has any team I was down in the preseason not played a D1 game yet? Who is left out there that could be left unadjusted that is due to end up on this fallers list
Why yes. Let’s move onto Mondays games & discuss the Mercer Bears.
Monday Games
Best Bet
Mercer @ DePaul
Bet: Depaul -6
My handicap: DePaul -8.5
Play up until: DePaul -8
Rationale: Mercer fits the profile of the team I am looking to play against early: New coach, rebuilt roster that I am lower on that market.
Game preview: 3 point barrage likely in the Windy City
Ryan Ridder is likely going to do great things with Mercer's basketball program. Ridder, who is not yet 40 has won at every level and has outperformed preseason Kenpom predictions in 5 of his 6 seasons as a D1 bench boss. However I think his desired style of play opens the Bears up for a blowout loss in his Division 1 debut tonight in the Windy City
Ryan has his offense play at pace, ranking in the top 15 of average possession length the past two seasons. His Skyhawks teams have been in the top 20 annually in transition rate. However when stepping up in class against superior competition this style of play provides the more skilled opponent extra possessions; Over his three years at Tennessee Martin, Ridder went 0-17 SU with the average margin of defeat being 16 points against Quad 1+2 team. Roster turnover hit Mercer hard this offseason, as one would expect from a team that made a coaching change so I project the efficiency to be on the lower end & defensive miscues to be a common theme of this game. Depaul coach Holtmann also has been elite at defensive schemes built around transition denial at other stops which presents an issue for Ridder & the Bears.
Ridder has his squad play a very passive defense, under screening everything with the goal of limiting rim access (2nd lowest rim rate allowed nationally last season). This means two things however: his teams struggle to create turnovers (358th a season ago)& they give up a ton of 3’s (296th in rate last season) which are other reasons why his teams have struggled to win when stepping up in class. If you give the better team more possessions & allow them to maximize them all you’re likely in trouble.
Depaul starts a new era of basketball under Chris Holtmann. Holtmann coached teams alway have good guards who don’t turn the ball over & can shoot. Holtmann clearly made it a top priority to bring in shooting, and he should have four outside threats on the floor at almost all times this season. So far the Blue Demons rank 12th nationally in 3 point rate. This is the major edge in this game. If DePaul can shoot a halfway respectable % from the land beyond they will win by margin.
Prediction: 79-70 DePaul
(Season record: 12-3 +8.23u)
Monday games of interests
Buffalo/Notre Dame
Irish coach Micah Shrewsberry made the smart addition of Matt Allocco (career > 40% from 3) from Princeton who fits his spread PNR perfectly. Shrews is going to ball screen you to death, mostly featuring Markus Burton and spread the floor with shooters (his teams always have high 3 points scoring rates). With Braeden Shrewsberry emerging in the 2nd half of last season I think the Irish have three solid pieces to work with offensively. Therefore expect their offensive metrics to rise like a rocket. Offensively, oddsmakers may be slow to adjust given preseason priors having recent seasons OE baked in..
Game 1 vs Stonehill was bet up from 139 to 142 and soared over the total. The total tonight vs Buffalo sits at 148.5. Through two games Buffalo sits 7th nationally in EFG% while ranking 33rd in shot quality & top 65 in rim/3 rate. This sample is small but the Bulls offense seems to be more analytically friendly than last season (288th in SQ). They are averaging >80 points a game and allow 80 points per game. Maybe we see more points tonight. I make the total 150 (84-66) so feel like the oddsmakers set a good price but will look to target this live if an opportunity presents.
Idaho/Washington St
I talked about David Riley in my opening night preview. Here is what I said if you missed it
Meet David Riley the 35 year old first year head coach at Washington State. Riley parlayed three successful seasons at Eastern Washington (62-38) into a higher profile job in Pullman. My biggest nugget to share about Riley that bettors should have been paying attention to is his 61% ATS record which ranks top 10 in the country over the last three years. Despite his Eagles being rated highly by oddsmakers due to success, Riley was able to continuously get his team to overperform their market rating. This is generally a sign of a great coach.
My biggest question is how his style, schemes & preferred roster construction will translate in a better league against better athletes on a night to night basis. Riley’s EWU teams dominated Big Sky opponents (42-14) with their positional size (top 25 in average height last season, three year average rank of 17th). Their offense ran everything through their bigs (top 30 post offense efficiency), which will work efficiently against mid-majors defenses that run smaller in the frontcourt. When opposing defenses brought extra attention to address the size mismatches, EWU exploited the space by freeing up shooters (top 15 catch & shoot rate) off screens/off ball cutting (top 20 rates of each). In short EMU often brutalized opponents who could not match their size. A closer look shows Rileys EWU teams produced the 14th best effective FG% (57%) against quad 3 & 4 competition in the country over the last three seasons. However when stepping up in class against opponents who could match up a little better with the positional size this mark dropped to 49% (91st nationally). Either way a great offense but there will be less mismatches in the WCC. Washington State should run their offense in a similar way as Riley brought 4 starters from last season's Eagles squad with him. My concerns won’t factor in on opening night against familiar foe Portland State out of the Big Sky. Rileys EWU squad scored at will against PSU’s pres sure defense (2nd highest steal rate in Big Sky play) last season (91 PPG in 2 games). Over his 3 year tenure in the Big Sky his Eagles soared to a 6-0 SU & ATS record against Jase Coburn’s Vikings. Over the past 5 matchups EMU averaged 91 points per game against Portland State.
Well here we are again on Monday with Riley taking on another familiar foe from the Big Sky- Idaho. Riley & EWU averaged 83 points a game vs the Vandals last season. Another exploitable matchup tonight as the Vandals feature one of the more aggressive ball screen coverages in the entire country, sending two to the ball at a 90th percentile rate last season. This isn’t a viable strategy against a roster built like Washington State
Idaho’s spread PNR system under coach Alex Pribble can spread the floor effectively here & attack off the dribble.
I expect points. This was bet overnight from 153 to 158
Pacific/Hawaii
Dave Smart. I am very familiar with Dave as he built a Dynasty at Carleton University in Canada in my neck of the woods. Research the man and you’ll understand why pro bettors are hitting Pacific every game. Most recently he has been on Grant McCaslands staff. Expect this team to draw overnight action regularly (did again last night). Pacific will be a sneaky underdog pick ATS all season. I will leave it at that.
What is next?
How do we improve as sports bettors? Well that is a conversation for a different day. However in my opinion too often people are looking in the wrong places. Marcel Prost said it best “The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes”. I’ve learned to change how I look at betting markets and exploit where they are weakest. My goal is to determine which team above is now about to be overvalued or undervalued before the oddsmakers. The Journey, not the destination. Time for more coffee.
Good luck out there. Thank you for reading.
Signed,
Freddie (click to follow on Twitter/X)