College Football Preview
Steak & Degens Best Bets
One full day before Week 0, and we finally made it to your inbox.
Disclaimer: we are not professional sports bettors. I fully understand these lines have been available for months, and there are people who do this for a living betting large amounts of money on them all summer. Numbers have changed - for better or worse. It is YOUR discretion on whether to tail any of these bets. It’s your money and your decision. Bet responsibly and don’t be a moron.
It’s year 4 of The Degenerate newsletter. If you’re new here, you can expect our best bets every week in both the NFL and CFB. Season futures and previews aren’t necessarily our bread and butter, but we do absolutely LOVE betting them. A season long investment means you have skin in the game from start to finish with potentially lower risk than you would betting week in and week out. The caveat is that you need to have that capital tied up for months. We make 1-3 unit wagers on season totals, and typically a bit less and player awards that are more “longshot” type bets.
There’s a new playoff format and conference realignment. These changes, along with the transfer portal and NIL, makes it harder than ever to cap college football in our opinion. But we are sure going to give it our best effort. Best of luck this season!
If you’re going to be boots on ground at any of these games be sure to use promo code “DEGEN” for $20 off your first purchase with SeatGeek.
ACC
Clemson Tigers
2023 Record: 9-4 (W vs Kentucky in Gator Bowl)
Returning Starters: 10 (7 offense, 3 defense)
I think Dabo is a big ole doofus, but there is no denying he deserves credit for Clemson being a known powerhouse year in and year out. Last year was a massive disappointment, and one that hurt us financially. Steak had Cade Klubnik as his heisman pick, and I had the Tigers to win the ACC for 2 units. Clemson opened the season with a 28-7 loss at Duke, and it was the quickest we’d ever ripped up tickets.
Clemson was 4-4 after a miserable loss to NC State, and Dabo had a 5+ minute rant on his local radio show after a fan called in and started questioning whether he should step down. That was the low point for Clemson, and the interview is was sparked a turnaround. After that, Clemson won and covered the last 4 games of the season, and ended it with a win against Kentucky in the Gator Bowl.
You can find 9 wins at lower juice, but we aren’t afraid to lay it with the Tigers in weak ACC. Their toughest game by far will be on the road against Florida State. Other than that, it’s a revenge game at home against NC State. We hope Dabo gives more play calling responsibility to Garrett Riley (former TCU OC) so this offense can give the defense some support. If that happens, Clemson could make some real noise.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins (-170)
NC State Wolfpack
2023 Record: 9-4 (L vs Kansas St in Pop Tart Bowl)
Returning Starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
It’s honestly amazing this team won 9 games last year with Brennan Armstrong playing QB. The transfer from Virginia was just not very good (we’re being nice) in our opinion, and HC Dave Doeren has gotten this team to a level of expectations of competing for a conference championship. They made one of the biggest splashes in the offseason bringing in QB Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina, and a sneaky good running back in Jordan Waters from Duke. Their leading receiver also returns, as does 4 of 5 starters from the offensive line last season.
There are four challenging games on the schedule - Tennessee (neutral field), at Clemson, at North Carolina and a cross country road trip to Cal. Granted Cal isn’t expected to be a juggernaut by any means, it’s still unfamiliar territory for an ACC team. We think NC State can win one if not two of those games, and get to 9 wins somewhat comfortably. They do seem to be a trendy pick, as everyone loves McCall, but we’ll go ahead and join the betting public for this one.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins (-135)
Louisville Cardinal
2023 Record: 10-4 (L vs FSU in ACC Championship Game, L vs USC in Holiday Bowl)
Returning Starters: 9 (3 offense, 6 defense)
Jeff Brohm had one hell of a debut as the head coach of Louisville. This is a guy I respect, and it’s never easy fading coaches you respect. However, if you look deeper into last seasons performance…I don’t find it to be all that impressive.
The Cardinals best win was at home against Notre Dame. But let me tell you as an Irish fan - that was about the worst scheduling spot imaginable. ND had just won a gritty game on the road at Duke, then had USC on deck the following week. Louisville was sandwiched in between, and props to them for delivering. Outside of that, they beat NC State on the road by 3, and a pathetic Miami team the second to last week of the season who had already given up.
The offense Brohm runs is definitely one capable of putting up points. However, they lost a TON of production from last season. Only returning 3 starters, and a new QB in Tyler Shough from Texas Tech. I don’t care that he’s 6-5 235 - this kid doesn’t pass my eyeball test. With a bunch of new faces, Louisville’s schedule gets much more difficult. They have a trip to ND in a revenge spot, a 4 road game in 5 week stretch - including a cross country trip to Stanford and Death Valley - and they’ll play what should be a much better Miami team in the middle of the season. It’s a steep price to pay, but I do not see the Cardinal repeating their ACC Championship run of last season.
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins (-180)
Miami & FSU
These are two teams we ultimately decided to pass on and will be picking our spots throughout the season on either backing (FSU) or fading (Miami). Just to name a few - we will likely be on Florida State week 0 against Georgia Tech. And for Miami, who we are not as high on this year as everyone else, we’ll likely be taking the Gators +3 in the swamp week 1. I also want to fade Miami in week 6 when they make a cross country trip to play Cal. Follow us on Twitter, Pikkit and the Action Network App if you want to track all our bets throughout the season.
BIG TEN
Oregon Ducks
2023 Record: 12-2 (L vs Washington in Pac-12 Championship, W vs Liberty in Fiesta Bowl)
Returning Starters: 10 (6 offense, 4 defense)
There’s hype we fade, and then there’s hype we buy. Steak has his shopping bag and credit card out to buy all the Duck hype. But I want to make it clear that I (Degen) am not!
You won’t find anyone telling you that Oregon isn’t winning 11 games at minimum this season. Look, I (Degen) love Dillon Gabriel as much as the nest college football fan. I had Oklahoma win total over as my largest future play last year, and also had him to win the heisman. I also love Dan Lanning. There is a lot to like about the Ducks. But what I don’t like is this schedule.
Oregon is a new member of the Big 12, and they will playing in some unfamiliar places this season: at Michigan, at Purdue (who’s terrible, but still tricky) and at Wisconsin in late November. Not to mention they are reloading at QB, RB and WR.
Anyways, I don’t have the balls to fade, and I always respect when Steak decides to go all in on a chalk play.
The Pick: Over 10.5 Wins (-120), Dillon Gabriel Heisman (+700) and Oregon to win Natty (+700) — Steak
Wisconsin Badgers
2023 Record: 7-6 (L vs LSU in ReliaQuest Bowl)
Returning Starters: 13 (8 offense, 5 defense)
I loved Wisconsin last year because I loved the Luke Fickell hire. The problem? So did everybody else. If only gambling was that easy!
If you listened to people talk about the Wisconsin Badgers last offseason you would have heard a ton of positives and hardly any negatives. There was a lot of optimism that a new air raid offense led by Tanner Mordecai and new OC Phil Longo would be a success overnight. Unfortunately, it wasn’t. I and many others got burned on their over win total last season…but I’m going back.
I still think Fickell was a great hire and the right coach for Wisconsin. They had many issues, but the main one in my opinion is that Tanner Mordecai was not the guy. He was never going to be the guy. You could see it during the spring game when he threw 4 interceptions in the first half. Now they have Tyler Van Dyke coming in from Miami. I’m not saying he’s an all-world QB, but at least he’s played football on a big stage compared to Mordecai coming from a smaller school. I think this offense, with 8 returning starters and a better fit at QB, will find more success this season.
I see 7 wins on the schedule. It also helps that they get their 3 toughest opponents - Alabama, Penn St and Oregon - all at home. I also think they might surprise some people in a late November when they host Oregon (earmuffs Steak!).
The Pick: Over 6.5 Wins (-145)
Indiana Hoosiers
2023 Record: 3-9
Returning Starters: 4 (3 offense, 1 defense)
Indiana is the lowest ranked team in the Big Ten, so naturally…Steak wants their over win total. The Steak Special as I call it. Dude is sick in the head.
New head coach Curt Cignetti comes in from JMU where he posted a 66-18 record over 7 years. He brought with him 13 guys - including JMU’s leading receiver (1200 yards & 8 TDs last year). Apparently he did really well in transfer portal as well.
They’ve also got an experienced in QB Kurtis Rourke, who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 at Ohio. Good coach, veteran QB and tons of receivers. Out with the bad, in with the good? What Steak really likes is the schedule. The first 5 weeks are cupcakes - FIU, Western Illinois, at UCLA, Charlotte then Maryland. Could this be the quickest cash of the season? Can’t wait to find out.
The Pick: Over 5.5 Wins (-150) - Steak
Michigan & USC
We thought about getting involved with both teams over win totals, but elected to pass. Steak is going to take a splash on USC to make the playoff at 4/1. Rather than invest in these teams throughout the entire season, we are going to pick our spots. I can tell you already we will likely be on Michigan at home vs Texas. Then, I (Degen, not Steak) think Michigan will slip up and lose to USC two weeks later.
BIG 12
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023 Record: 10-4 (L vs Texas in Big 12 Championship Game, W vs Texas A&M in Texas Bowl)
Returning Starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense)
Ever year in College Football, there’s always that team who comes out of nowhere and surprises people. The fans and betting public become more familiar with their players, and then they get REALLY excited to find out that most of them are coming back. It then becomes what we feel is a simple math equation: previous success + returning starters + same coach = guaranteed success. This team becomes the new darling in everones eyes. Yet these teams tend to break peoples hearts more than they cash peoples tickets. Recent examples:
2022: NC State - returning QB Devin Leary and 16 starters. People picked them to not only win the ACC, but as a long shot to end up in the CFP. They went 8-4 and landed in the Dukes Mayo Bowl.
2021: Iowa St & UNC - The Cyclones had Brock Purdy and Breece Hall coming back. UNC had Sam Howell, who at one point was talked about as being the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Iowa St went 7-6 and UNC went 6-7.
Simply put, I think Oklahoma St is that team to disappoint this season. Ollie Gordon established himself as the best RB in the nation, running the ball 285 times for 1700 yards. I don’t think that production will happen again. Teams should stack the box and force Alan Bowman to beat them, and I don’t think he will, because I don’t think he’s very good. 2 of the 3 losses I’ll need on this schedule are Utah and Kansas St (who they play in back to back weeks). Then there’s a stretch of 3 road games in 4 weeks with no BYE week, which is always tricky, and a season finale in Boulder, Colorado.
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins (-150) - Degen
Kansas State Wildcats
2023 Record: 9-4 (W vs NC State in Pop Tart Bowl)
Returning Starters: 11 (4 offense, 7 defense)
I was a big K State guy last season. Now the baton has been handed over to Steak who's going all in.
During my research, I became a sucker for Colin Klein at OC with QB Will Howard. Had the over 8 win total (push) and a splash on Howard to win the Heisman (that did not push). Howard is now at Ohio St and Klein is at Texas A&M. I still trust HC Chris Klieman to have this team ready to play in what should be a much softer Big 12. They also avoid playing Utah which is huge for the win total. Biggest concerns are a new OC coming in and not many returning starters. Steak is throwing all of that out the window and putting his faith on Sophomore QB Avery Johnson being the man. He’s showed to be an elite runner, but there are some questions in the passing game. RB DJ Giddens returns which should only reassure the K State ground game is going to be solid, but the WR room is essentially brand new and inexperienced.
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins (+120), Make Playoffs (+275), Win Big 12 (+350) & Avery Johnson Heisman (+2500) — Steak
Arizona Wildcats
2023 Record: 10-3 (W vs Oklahoma in Alamo Bowl)
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Talk about teams that surprised people - what the hell got into Arizona last year?! If this team wasn’t winning, they were covering the spread. An impressive season capped off with a bowl win against Oklahoma.
It felt inevitable that HC Jedd Fisch was going to capitalize on that and take a bigger job, which he did and is now at Washington. Stud QB Noah Fifita returns as well as his top receiver. I think the oddsmakers know just how big of an impact losing their HC will be, as you don’t often see an 11 win team open up with a 7.5 win total. This is mostly a line read and we are going to fade.
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
Iowa State Cyclones
2023 Record: 7-6 (L vs Memphis in Liberty Bowl)
Returning Starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense)
I had Jovan on the Board Review this week to talk Big 12. He brought the Cyclones to my attention. You can watch Jovan and I discuss the Big 12 on The Degenerate YouTube page
Jovan made a great point in that this team was dealing with some players missing at the start of last season due to suspensions for alleged gambling accusations. They started poorly, as to be expected, but the last 7 weeks of a down year were actually not as bad as I originally thought. They only lost to a good Kansas team by a touchdown, and played Texas pretty damn tough. Iowa St returns 17 starters, including QB Rocco Becht who had quite a nice Freshmen season. Iowa St also avoid playing Utah and Oklahoma St - two of the top teams in the Big 12. I don’t really care for HC Matt Campbell, but I’m down to get involved.
The Pick: Over 7.5 Wins (-170) - Degen tailing Jovan
Featured Pick from Jovan: Cincinnati Bearcats
2023 Record: 3-9
Returning Starters: 11 (7 offense, 4 defense)
Cincy is coming off a 3-9 year that looked a lot worse on paper than it actually was. Of those 9 losses, 4 of them were one-score games, including a non-conference OT loss vs Miami Ohio. In those 4 games they outgained their opponents by a combined 559 yards, allowed 2 defensive TDs, and committed multiple untimely turnovers. It was a poor coaching job by Satterfield but most of it was on the shoulders of Emory Jones, who was terrible all year. Bad decision-making and little threat of a deep ball doomed a team with a really tough defense and one of the better run games in the Big 12.
This year they return Corey Kiner who rushed for over 1K last year and the entire offensive line in front of him. They add Brendan Sorsby at QB, who I think is one of the most underrated transfer QB additions from the portal. He won the job at Indiana midseason and threw 15 TDs/5 INTs, holding his own against some good Big Ten defenses. He adds everything that Cincy needed from Emory: a deep ball and ball security. He’s also 6’3 235 and is both fast and physical himself in the run game (got a little Josh Allen in him). I think this offense will be a lot better than people think.
The defense loses some production and has some questions but thankfully the schedule works in Cincy’s favor big time. Out of the 5 teams ranked preseason in the Big 12, they only have 1 on their schedule (Kansas St). The home schedule of Towson, Pitt, Houston, ASU, WVU, and TCU is an incredibly winnable slate and some of their tougher road opponents have some weird scheduling spots when they play them as well (UCF, ISU, Colorado). Bearcats go bowling!
The Pick: Over 5.5 Wins (-120) - Jovan Best Bet
SEC
Texas Longhorns
2023 Record: 12-2 (L vs Washington in CFP)
Returning Starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Despite fading Texas last year and failing, I am still not a Steve Sarkisian guy. I’ll admit, that was a damn good Texas team, but they lost A LOT of talent. 5 starters last year were NFL Draft picks in the first and second round, including two D lineman which is where I felt Texas had the advantage against just about every opponent. Quinn Ewers is back at QB and one of the favorites to win the heisman, but they lost a ton of firepower on offense.
I’ll give Sark credit - he loaded up that team in year 3, but I don’t think I trust him to reload so quickly. It’s a steep price to pay but I do not see Texas going 11-1. In fact, I think they drop one early when they play at Michigan. Then they still have to play Georgia, which comes the week after the Red River Rivalry vs Oklahoma. That is just a brutal scheduling spot. Also I want it on record - Quinn Ewers to win the Heisman is the worst wager of 2024. Don’t do it. I mean you can do it if you want to, but that is not hitting. Good luck though…but not really.
The Pick: Under 10.5 Wins (-180)
Ole Miss Rebels
2023 Record: 11-2 (W vs Penn St in Peach Bowl)
Returning Starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)
How can you not be romantic about Lane Kiffin coaching college football? Big fan, but this is a new level of expectation that Lane hasn’t felt in over a decade since he was at USC. With Saban retiring, all eyes are now on Ole Miss as one of the big dogs in conference along side Georgia. There’s a lot of hype around not only this team to succeed, but QB Jaxson Dart to win the Heisman. The offense returns plenty of starters but they are missing RB Quinshon Judkins who left for Ohio St. He led the team with 1158 yards last season and 15 TDs.
Speaking of Alabama - the biggest W for Ole Miss is that they avoid them in the regular season. The first six weeks of this schedule are mostly tune up games, but what I’m targeting is week 7 when they go to Death Valley. Ole Miss beat LSU last season in a barnburner. They’ll be going into that game with zero rest, having played 6 weeks of football, and a road game to South Carolina the week before. Brian Kelly should have the Tigers out for revenge. I have that as a loss, and I also have them losing to Georgia. Will need one more to feel comfortable about them missing the playoffs, and I think it’s either to Oklahoma at home or a late season trip to the swamp. Let’s also not forget the fact that Ole Miss only beat Auburn, Texas A&M and Arkansas by one possession last year. Lane seems like a great guy to get a beer with, but we aren’t buying a National Title or SEC Championship run.
The Pick: Miss Playoffs (+100)
Missouri Tigers
2023 Record: 11-2 (W vs Ohio St in Cotton Bowl)
Returning Starters: 13 (8 offense, 5 defense)
We are drinking the Missouri Kool Aid. Steak is having a full glass, I’m just doing an easy 8 ounces. I could be wrong, but this schedule looks mighty soft for an SEC team. They don’t have to play Georgia or newcomer Texas. The toughest game by far will be at Alabama. Then the next tier of difficult is Oklahoma at home, and on the road at Texas A&M, but both of those will be off of BYE weeks. That’s a favorable schedule for an 11 win team who’s returning 8 starters on what was a very prolific offense.
I wasn’t familiar at all with Eli Drinkwitz till last season. He came on my radar only because I faded Missouri when they played at Georgia. I thought they were going to get steamrolled, but they made that game tougher on the dawgs than I expected. I was also impressed with how well Brady Cook ran that offense, and of course with WR Luther Burden. By the way - did you know Burden is only 5’11? This dude plays like he’s 6’4.
Now the question will be on defense. The biggest blow to Mizzou is losing DC Blake Baker (now at LSU). But even if the D allows 28+ points per game, I don’t see how the offense isn’t giving them 35+. Not to mention, there aren’t a ton of opponents who terrify me and seem capable of putting up that many points. We just can’t see how this isn’t a 10 win team at minimum.
The Pick: Make Playoffs (+180) & Brady Cook Heisman (+2500) — Steak
Jalen Milroe
I don’t give a shit that Nick Saban is gone. I don’t give a shit who the receivers or running backs are. Jalen Milroe has what it takes to win the Heisman Trophy. Here’s the checklist:
Play Quarterback - Check
Play on a big stage - Check
Make plays aka be a playmaker - CHECK
I’m honestly shocked he’s not lower than 8/1. Guys like Quinn Ewers have better odds than him. Hilarious. This guy is an absolute stud. The critics will say he makes too many mistakes. Okay fine, he was a sophomore last year and threw 6 interceptions. I’ve seen worse. Let’s not forget this dude had Alabama in overtime against the eventual National Champions. How did Penix fair against that Michigan defense? I REST MY CASE.
RECAP:
ACC
Clemson OVER 8.5 Wins (-170)
NC State OVER 8.5 Wins (-135)
Louisville UNDER 8.5 Wins (-180)
BIG TEN
Oregon OVER 10.5 Wins (-120) - Steak
Dillon Gabriel Heisman (+700) - Steak
Oregon to win Natty (+700) - Steak
USC Make Playoffs (+400) - Steak
Wisconsin OVER 6.5 Wins (-145) - Degen
Indiana OVER 5.5 Wins (-150) - Steak
BIG 12
Oklahoma State UNDER 8.5 Wins (-150) - Degen Best Bet
Kansas State OVER 9.5 Wins (+120) - Steak
Kansas State Make Playoffs (+275) - Steak
Kansas State to win Big 12 (+350) - Steak
Avery Johnson Heisman (+2500) - Steak
Iowa State OVER 7.5 Wins (-170) - Degen tailing Jovan
Arizona UNDER 7.5 Wins (+125)
Cincinnati OVER 5.5 Wins (-120) - Jovan Best Bet
SEC
Texas UNDER 10.5 Wins (-180)
Missouri Make Playoffs (+180) - Steak
Brady Cook Heisman (+2500) - Steak
Ole Miss Miss Playoffs (+100)
Jalen Milroe Heisman (+1300) - Degen
Oklahoma UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)