College Football Preview Pt. 1
ACC & Big Ten
We’re taking a week of from NFL futures to start digging into College Football. Two more weeks. Two more fucking weeks until kickoff. Can you believe it? Can’t wait.
ACC
Odds to win Conference:
Clemson +150
Florida State +170
Pittsburgh +1100
North Carolina +1100
Louisville +1400
Miami +2000
*Odds per Fanduel
Florida State
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -138)
2022 Record: 9-3 (W vs Oklahoma in Bowl Game)
The Good: I was absolutely shocked at the improvement Jordan Travis made from 2021 to 2022. I’m an ND fan who watched the 2021 season opener and legit thought Jordan Travis was a Wide Receiver filling in at QB because of injuries or something. He went 9/19 for 130 and threw 3 INTs. Then last season he made me look like a fool. What’s most impressive is that he only threw 5 INT’s. Credit to not only him but HC Mike Norvell too for sticking with Travis, who’s now a popular pick to win the Heisman (+1400) and for good reason. The Noles are absolutely LOADED on offense. Travis will have plenty of weapons to choose from, and one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country as FSU brings back all 5 starters. Keep an eye on South Carolina TE transfer Jaheim Bell, this guy is a fucking beast. The defense is also stout and bringing back 8 starters, including DE Jared Verse who shocked fans by electing to come back when most projected him as a first round draft pick.
The Bad: Honestly…not much. As a bettor, I see so many reasons to buy into this FSU team. For me personally, I am just not totally there with Norvell or Travis. Yes, I saw incredible improvement, but my concern is…what if that’s Jordans ceiling? And for Norvell, I can’t get over how FSU almost blew that win against LSU, or how they shit the bed against NC State, or only putting up 21 points at home against Wake Forest. It’s a new season, and I totally understand that means we can expect new (and better) results, but I’m just not there.
The Pick: PASS. We won’t be the fools that fade this FSU team, but we’re not betting on them either.
Clemson
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -188)
2022 Record: 10-2 (Loss to Tennessee in Bowl Game)
The Good: We like to bet on coaching staffs, and despite not being the biggest Dabo fans, Clemson made arguably one of the best hires this offseason by bringing in former TCU OC Garrett Riley. Not only did Riley play a huge role in getting the Frogs into the National Championship, but QB Max Duggan was also a heisman finalist. Cade Klubnik feels like a trendy pick to win the award this year (+1000) without having proven much on the field, but with Riley now calling plays that certainly helps his chances. The offense brings back 7 starters in total, but most important are 4/5 offensive lineman. Cade will also have both RB’s to fall back on, including Will Shipley, who some say is one of the best in the country. It’s no secret that an ACC schedule is soft, but the structure is also very favorable for Clemson. They open at Duke (we’ll talk about them later), but then follow it up with two cupcake home games against Charleston Southern and FAU before hosting FSU. They also get Notre Dame at home in a prime revenge spot. Their toughest conference road game is at Miami, but they get a BYE week before that.
The Bad: Clemsons defense is typically one of the best in the country, yet that was not the case last year. They ranked 75th in pass defense, and the red flag was early in the season when Wake Forest put up 45 against them. Was their regression on defense due to a lack of talent (doubtful) or adjusting to life without Brent Venables (now OU HC)? Probably the latter. They return 8 starters on this side of the ball and have no issue reloading talent anyways, so we’ll see if year two in a new scheme brings a better performance, but it’s still something that concerns us.
The Pick: Win the ACC +150 - No doubt FSU will be good, but we are buying a pissed off Clemson with a chip on their shoulder and a new look offense.
Duke
Win Total: 6.5 (Under -150)
2022 Record: 8-4 (W vs UCF in Bowl Game)
FEATURED PICK BY JAKE HAZEN (@jakemlb31)
The Duke Blue Devils are a team that is flying under a lot of people's radars coming into this season, despite having a successful 2022 campaign with a 9-4 record. Mike Elko appears to be really building something at Duke, and the public seems to not be catching on quite yet. Duke ranks 2nd in returning talent in the ACC, only behind Florida State. The Blue Devils put up some impressive numbers on the offensive side, ranking among the ACC's best. Duke ranked 5th in points per game (PPG) and 1st in the ACC in sacks allowed, while returning 4/5 of their offensive line, both starting senior wide receivers and running backs, and touted Junior QB Riley Leonard. Leonard had an impressive 2022 season with 3000 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions, while also rushing for 700 yards and 13 touchdowns. I am not the only one who is high on Leonard, as he is a consensus top 8 QB draft prospect. This offense is talented and veteran, with their 4 best skill position players all being seniors. The defense, while still good, does not compare to their offense.
Duke is returning 8 defensive starters, but they also lost their top two tacklers. They are returning their entire D-line and 4/5 of their secondary. Duke ranked 6th in PPG allowed in the ACC last year at 22.7 PPG. This Duke team is very veteran, with a lot of upperclassmen. An elite college QB returning while having his two favorite targets and both running backs running it back with him, along with one of the best pass-protecting O-lines in the ACC coming back nearly fully intact, should be a recipe for success. One thing I am concerned about is that they are +130 to go over their win total at 6.5, while returning the majority of a Duke team that won 9 games the season prior.
However, it does not concern me too much. You have to ask yourself who is waking up and betting on Duke (a basketball school) to have a successful football season. I think this team can be a really fun squad with a lot of magic, and I will not be surprised to see them play a major spoiler in the landscape of the ACC, especially in week one where they are +12 against Clemson at home on a Monday night standalone game. Some bets that I am taking to back this Duke team are their win total at 6.5 (+130) and a Riley Adams player prop square for him to have more than 2625.5 passing yards.
The Pick: OVER 6.5 (+125)
Other ACC Bets:
Pitt: OVER 6.5 Wins (-192) - Incoming QB transfer Phil Jurkevic needed a fresh start, and no place better than his hometown. We like Pat Narduzzi to build on the success from last season’s 8-4 record and bowl win against UCLA.
Miami: UNDER 7.5 Wins (-140) - Cristobal sure can recruit, but can he coach? We’re going to fade Miami until he proves he can. Tyler Van Dyke is back and it’s hard to imagine he can be much worse. Loads of talent at the U, but too many new faces with a coach we don’t have confidence in putting talented pieces together.
Louisville: OVER 8.5 Wins (+125) - Steak pick.
Big Ten
Odds to win Conference:
Ohio State +165
Michigan +180
Penn State +600
Wisconsin +900
Iowa +1200
Penn State
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -140)
2022 Record: 10-2 (W vs Utah in Bowl Game)
The Good: This feels like the most hyped and excited Penn State fans have been in the 9 years James Franklin has been HC. Apparently, they think they’ve found their guy at QB, turning to sophomore Drew Allar. He’s 6’5 240 and can run. I watched his 4 minute highlight video on Youtube and think the excitement is warranted - this dude looks good. The offense is bringing back 6 starters in total, including stud RB Nick Singleton and 4/5 offensive lineman. Let’s not forget about how good this Defense might be. The first year under DC Manny Diaz was a huge success. Now they return 7 starters, and that’s not including DE Chop Robinson who somehow led the conference in TFL’s despite not starting once. They return all 3 LB’s after having the 16th best rush defense in the country.
The Bad: The WR’s are unproven. They’ve got depth, but need someone to step up. The other bad is…James Franklin. This feels like the make or break season for him. He beats the teams he should, but can’t beat the ones he shouldn’t. Going 10-2 last year was cool, but you gotta beat Ohio State or Michigan this year with what people are expecting to be his best team yet.
The Pick: UNDER 9.5 Wins (+115) - We don’t feel great about it, but we’re fading the PSU hype. Why? James Franklin. Just not believers in this guy, and we also feel confident in this team losing to OSU and Michigan again. That means we need one more slip up on the schedule. That could be Iowa at home or at Maryland, which is the week before Michigan and a prime look ahead spot. Gotta be honest though…don’t hate Allar as a Heisman long shot (+2800)
Wisconsin
Win Total: 8.5 (Over -140)
2022 Record: 6-6 (W vs OK State in Bowl Game)
The Good: Wisconsin fired Paul Chryst and hired Luke Fickell. Fucking BRAVO. The town of Madison deserved better and they got it. I think this is a great hire and great fit. Fickell hired Phil Longo as the OC (previously with North Carolina). Say goodbye to the I-formation and hello to the spread offense! They also brought in QB transfer Tanner Mordecai from SMU who’s got tons of experience throwing the football down the field, something that is foreign to Badger fans after years of misery with guys like Graham Mertz. Wisconsin brings back all 3 WR’s and got CJ Williams in the portal from USC. Most importantly, they will have both stud RB’s Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi returning in the backfield. These two are arguably the best duo in the country, and just because Wisconsin is going to throw the ball more than 8 times a game does not mean they will be forgotten. Phil Longo’s offense had two 1,000 rushers in 2020 when Sam Howell was their QB. If anything, I think opening up the offense just means better production from the RB’s, as opposing defenses will no longer be stacking the box as often. The schedule is also soft - they don’t play Penn St or Michigan, and get their toughest opponent (Ohio St) at home.
The Bad: Is change a good thing? Yes. Could it take time? Also yes. This may not be something that works right away. I watched Wisconsins spring game and Tanner Mordecai threw 4 interceptions. Everything is new, and it could take a few mistakes and potential losses before it all comes together.
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins (-140) - Haven’t heard anyone say a bad thing about Wisconsin, and that does concern us as contrarian style bettors, but choosing to ignore it. In Fickell we trust.
Other Big Ten Bets:
Minnesota: UNDER 7.5 Wins (-150) - I think PJ Flecks time as the Gophers head coach comes to an end. Losing RB Mohamed Ibrahim feels like when Michigan St lost Kenneth Walker. I think this team he was too important and the team was too dependent on him for their success.
Maryland: UNDER 7.5 Wins (-110) - Steak pick.
Ohio State: To win Conference (+165) & National Championship (+700) - Steak pick.
RECAP:
Clemson to win ACC +150
Duke OVER 6.5 Wins +125 (Jake Hazen)
Pitt OVER 6.5 Wins -190
Miami UNDER 7.5 Wins -150
Louisville OVER 7.5 Wins +125
Penn State UNDER 9.5 Wins +115
Wisconsin OVER 8.5 Wins -140
Minnesota UNDER 7.5 Wins -150
Maryland UNDER 7.5 Wins -110
Ohio St to win Big Ten +165 & Championship +700