College Football Preview Pt. 2
Pac-12
Talk about top heavy. The Pac-12 is the weakest it’s been in quite a long time. Teams like Stanford, Cal and Arizona State used to be decent opponents, but those days are long gone. Vegas knows most Pac-12 teams are now glorified BYE weeks, as the majority of their win totals are no higher than 5.5, with the under being juiced (Arizona is at 2.5!). Sad times for this conference.
What happened, you ask? I don’t know. I guess there’s more to life than football on the west coast. Maybe their weekends consist of volleyball and bon fires on the beach. I’m sure that’s fun, but I choose to start my Saturdays sweating a Northwestern under and finishing it off with a Hawaii over.
We won’t spend too much time analyzing these teams outside of the big players. Before we get started - you should be aware of where the public is siding.
SPOILER ALERT: We’re on the opposite side of just about all of these.
To win Conference:
USC +150
Utah +300
Oregon +300
UCLA +1000
Washington +1700
USC
2021 Record: 4-8 (3-6 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 9.5
“The only way to enjoy watching a team you hate succeed is to profit off them” – Socrates.
The Good: Alright, I’ll be totally upfront with you – I’m a Notre Dame fan, and absolutely hate USC. I’ve enjoyed every second of their downfall. When Pete Carroll left for the NFL, it was one of my happiest days as a college sports fan. I must sadly admit…I think they’re back.
Lincoln Riley wasted zero time bringing elite talent back to Southern California after he was named new Trojans head coach, and that started with Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams. Williams is legit, and the oddsmakers know it, as he’s the 3rd favorite to win the Heisman at +600. Riley also brought over Sooner WR Mario Williams (freshmen All-American), Oregon RB Travis Dye (top RB in Pac-12) and Jordan Addison from Pitt (Biletnikoff Award winner as the nations top WR). Barf.
Some are saying that Riley pushed the limits of what’s allowed when it comes to using NIL to recruit players. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was allegedly pissed, and even called Riley directly to discuss the “tampering” with Jordan Addison. Riley is showing he’ll do whatever it takes to ensure the Trojans start winning games, and as a USC hater, that terrifies me. College Football success comes by those who play the dirtiest, and Clay Helton (former USC Coach) went full patty cake. Unlike Miami, this might be a light switch situation where success comes instantly.
The Bad: Defense, I guess? It’s only returning 4 starters, but they did land Shane Lee (LB from Alabama) from the transfer portal as well.
Caleb Williams already knows the air raid system being brought over from Oklahoma, but with all the new incoming transfers, it may take some time for everyone else to fit in. But let’s be honest…the offense will probably be fine. If you think Big-12 defenses are soft, just wait till you see what they do to the Pac-12. Ugh.
The Pick: Over 9.5 (-120) 2 Units – Lincoln Riley bought a 17M house, and 34,000 people went to USC’s spring game. They’re back. He knows it, the fans know it and I know it. In regards to the schedule, they do play @ Utah and UCLA. Let’s say the Trojans split those games, and lose to ND in the finale (they won’t), then they still get 10 wins. The rest of their schedule is hilariously soft with no tough non-conference opponents.
OREGON
2021 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 8.5
The Good: Ducks might be quacking in 2022! There’s actually a lot to like about this Oregon team (outside of QB, but we’ll get to that later). Oregon had a sneaky good hire with Dan Lanning as their new HC. Lanning was Georgia’s DC last year and is only 36 years old. Granted he won’t have the SEC caliber of player on defense in Eugene, he can at least instill some sort of actual system and scheme that could make Oregon standout from any other Pac-12 challenger.
The Ducks return 7 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense. The entire offensive line returns for the 3rd straight season. Most of the skill positions will see new faces, but they’re all highly touted recruits, as Oregon hauled in the best recruiting class in the conference. The defense did lose Kayvon Thibodeaux in the draft, but they’re expected to have one of the best LB duo’s in the country, anchored by Noah Sewell (Penei’s brother). The defensive front 7 is once again Oregons strong suit, but now with an SEC mind behind the controls.
The Bad: For the third time in three seasons, there will be a new starter at QB for this team. Lanning has said there will be an open competition between the 2 current guys on the roster and incoming transfer Bo Nix from Auburn. You may feel differently about Bo, but I think he is average at best. Shows flashes, but he doesn’t have “it”.
New offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham is also from Auburn and did coach with Nix back in 2019. Perhaps you could expect a bit of favoritism due to familiarity, and lean towards Nix being the starter.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-130) 1 Unit - The Pac-12 North is as soft as warm butter, so Oregon shouldn’t have a tough time winning it again. However, they do start the year with about as tough of a test as you can get - in Atlanta against the Georgia Bulldogs. The current spread is Georgia -17.5 (LOL). Outside of that, the Ducks do have a a few tough opponents such as BYU, Utah and UCLA, but they do get all of them at home.
UTAH
2021 Record: 10-4 (8-1 Conf)
2022 Record: 8.5
The Good: The defending Pac-12 (and almost Rose Bowl) Champs return 8 starters on offense, including the All Conference QB & RB duo of Cameron Rising and Tavion Thomas. Last year, the excitement and hype around Utah was with QB transfer Charlie Brewer from Baylor. After a poor performance and 1-2 start, HC Kyle Wittingham pulled the plug on that experiment, and handed the keys to Texas transfer and 4 star recruit Cameron Rising. The Utes didn’t look back, as they finished the season 9-2 and lost a thriller in the Rose Bowl 48-45 against Ohio State.
With Rising at QB, Utah established dominance throughout the conference. They ended the year beating the absolute piss out of Oregon…TWICE. In the second to last game of the season and in the Pac-12 Championship, Utah beat the Ducks by a combined score of 76-17. It’s very hard not to root for this team and this coach. Wittingham has been there since 2004 and is one of the most respected coaches in the country. Hard to find a guy who consistently does more with less.
The Bad: It’s a tough pill to swallow, but we feel the same way about Utah that we do with NC State. Expectations are something I typically like to bet against. Although, it’s a lot harder to do with a team who’s been there far more often like Utah has, but it must be done. Outside of that, we know the offense should be good, but the defense does only return 5 starters. Utah’s defense ranked 27th in the country last year, but lost both starting LB’s to the NFL Draft, one being Devin Lloyd who was a two-time Butkus Award finalist.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (+140) 1 Unit — The Utes will be tested early, as they open the season @ Florida where they’re currently 2 point favorites. This is the first time Utah has played an SEC opponent since 1984. After that, they’ll play another non-conference opponent in SDSU at home. They do get USC at home, but travel to Eugene to play Oregon near the end of the season.
RECAP:
USC OVER 9.5 (-120) 2 Units
Oregon OVER 8.5 (-130) 1 Unit
Utah UNDER 8.5 (+140) 1 Unit