College Football Preview Pt. 3
Big XII
Enjoy what you know of the Big 12 while you can, because it’s likely going to be shaken up in the next few years. Rumors are swirling that the conference is going to lose Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, but are expected to acquire BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. Sounds like a fair trade (LOL).
Let’s focus on the now. We’ve got plenty of reasons to be excited about the 2022 season, as there are TONS of new faces all over the conference. Can Brett Venables replicate his stingy defense at OU? Does Texas bounce back after being back and then not back? Is Adrian Martinez ever going to fucking graduate? Nobody knows the answers - but we’ve got hunches!
To win Conference:
Oklahoma +200
Texas +250
Oklahoma St +600
Baylor +600
Kansas St +1400
Oklahoma
2021 Record: 11-2 (7-2 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 8.5
The Good: Brett Venables (pictured) and Dillon Gabriel. Sure, Brett is a first time HC, but the guy has tons of experience - including 13 years on the Sooners staff under Bob Stoops. He was considered to be the best DC in the country while at Clemson the last 10 years. Other than Baylor & Oklahoma St, it’s common knowledge that Big 12 defenses are absolute jokes. If Brett can change that, the Sooners should find themselves at the top of the conference after their 6 year Championship run finally ended.
Now maybe it’s because I’m a Central Florida native, but I am extremely high on new QB Dillon Gabriel. The Sooners are getting a guy that has thrown for over 8,000 yards, 70 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions (9 in his freshmen year). He’s also paired up with former OC Jeff Lebby. These two were QB & OC duo at UCF in 2019. Libby was at Ole Miss last year, where his offense ranked 1st in the SEC and 4th nationally in total yards. The Sooners offense returns just 5 starters, but one being top WR Marvin Mims, who should thrive in this offense.
The Bad: Venables man aged to pull in an elite recruiting class, but the Sooners did lose 8 players to the transfer portal. Most notably QB Caleb Williams and WR Mario Williams - both joining former HC Lincoln Riley. Oklahoma has 19 newcomers to fill the void (10 freshmen and 9 transfers), and most are expected to contribute right away.
Although Gabriel has shown he’s a talented QB, it’s important to remember he hasn’t played in a year after breaking his collarbone in the third week of the 2021 season. So of course, the brakes should be pumped a bit on our excitement. It’s not often the expectations remain this high after losing both your QB and HC, but Oklahoma finds themselves as a 2/1 favorite to win the conference for the 7th time in 8 years. The oddsmakers aren’t expecting too much regressions, and neither are we.
The Pick: OVER 8.5 wins (-180) & Dillon Gabriel to win Heisman (+3300) — We’re buying all the Sooner stock. The hires of HC Venables and OC Lebby are A+, and as stated - we are in love with Dillon Gabriel. He’s got the 6th best odds to win the heisman for a reason. Oklahoma doesn’t have a tough non-conference opponent, and we expect a down year in the Big 12. I’m seeing plenty of W’s on their schedule.
Texas
2021 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 8.5
The Good: The Longhorns return RB Bijan Robinson and WR Xavier Worthy - two of the top playmakers in the country. Add to that QB Quinn Ewers, who’s from Texas, but committed to Ohio State and played just two snaps last year before transferring back. Unproven, and not guaranteed to be the starter, as he’ll compete with Hudson Card, but he was arguably the top overall recruit in 2022. This is a big get for a team that desperately needs a bounce back season.
When it comes to making a season long bet, something we highly value are the head coaches and their staff. Personally, I think Sarkisian is a dickbag, and he followed through with a 5-7 season in year 1. Not only was the record bad, but he lost to fucking KANSAS! Anyways, where I’m going with this is giving Texas credit for acting quickly and bringing in someone highly respected - former TCU HC Gary Patterson. He’s in a special assistant role and expected to help with the defense, but just his presence and experience alone is something a turd like Sark needs to keep his team in check. Texas is returning 14 starters, hauled in the nations #5 recruiting class and also landed a decent amount of talented players from the transfer portal.
The Bad: The Big 12 is not known for its defense, but Texas was on another level of bad last year, as it ranked 100th in the country. They allowed 31 PPG, over 400 yds per game and only had 7 interceptions (ranked 104th). They can only go up from here…right?
There’s a legitimate chance Steve Sarkisian is just a bad coach, and maybe even a bad dude. Just look into his eyes. That’s a face of a man that I would not trust having full control of my football team. Take a look at his past too…it ain’t pretty.
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Wins (-115) — I bet this picked shocked you. Look, despite not having any faith in Sarkisian, I do really think the hire of Gary Patterson was huge for this team. The Big 12 should be a fairly weak conference overall this year, and as a result, we think both Texas and Oklahoma will feast on a soft regular season schedule.
Oklahoma State
2021 Record: 12-2 (8-1 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 8.5
The Good: The Cowboys are looking to keep the momentum going after a historic season. State won 12 games for the second time ever, and came up just short of winning the Big 12. HC Mike Gundy is back for his 18th season, and also returning is 4th year starter Spencer Sanders. Good teams win, great teams cover - that’s exactly what the Sooners did last year going 10-3 ATS.
The Bad: The line tells the story, and a team coming off 12 wins having their total at 8.5 (-110) without losing their QB and/or HC tells you everything you need to know.
Oklahoma State had one of the best defenses in the country last year - ranking 1st in sacks and tackles for loss. But it will be hard to have that type of repeat performance without 8 starters and the departure of DC Jim Knowles (now with Ohio State).
The Pick: UNDER 8.5 Wins (-110) — We often preach reading lines and not teams on a game-by-game basis, but it can apply to future bets too. There are usually a handful of situations each season where the oddsmakers so obviously predict regression, and as we know, they are smarter than us. Don’t get duped.
Honorable Mentions (we’ll keep these short):
Baylor UNDER 7.5 Wins: A similar situation with Ok State. The defending conference champs and a 12 win team find themselves with a win total of just 7.5? Seems incredibly short to us. HC Dave Aranda (former LSU DC) had the Bears defense ranked 10th in the country in PPG last year (18.3). While the D lost some key contributors, they did return 7 starters. The concern with Baylor will be on offense. QB Blake Shapen looked good in the games he played last year, earning MVP honors in the title game win, but he’s losing most of his weapons. The offense is only returning 5 starters - most of which are on the Oline. Important, for sure, but they’re going to be replacing just about all of their weapons.
Kansas St OVER 6.5 Wins: I can’t believe I’m betting on Adrian Martinez. The former Nebraska QB transferred to K St and is playing in what feels like his 10th season. What I like about this team is their consensus All-American RB Deuce Vaughn and an experienced offensive line. Martinez can’t throw for shit, but he sure can run! The Wildcats should be a nightmare with the ground game. Also, former QB Collin Klein is the new OC. In his debut against LSU in last years Texas Bowl, K State put up 42 points and won easy. The over is heavily juiced, and I think it’s for good reason.
RECAP:
Oklahoma OVER 8.5 (-180) 2 Units
Dillon Gabriel to win Heisman (+3300) .5 Units
Texas OVER 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
Oklahoma State UNDER 8.5 (-110) 1 Unit
Baylor UNDER 7.5 (+145) 1 Unit
Kansas State OVER 6.5 (-145) 1 Unit