In terms of competition, most would agree that the SEC is the best conference in College Football. Yet from a betting perspective, we’d say say it’s our least confident. Nevertheless, we still have some teams we like and some teams we don’t.
Odds to win Conference
Georgia -110
Alabama +300
LSU +460
Tennessee +1500
Texas A&M +2000
Ole Miss +3000
*Odds per Fanduel
Alabama
Win Total: 10.5 (Over +150)
2022 Record: 11-2 (W vs K State in Sugar Bowl)
You know that part in a scary movie where it feels like it’s safe for the actor/actress to go outside but when they do they get killed? That’s kind of what it feels like fading Nick Saban. The last three times Alabama wasn’t the consensus pick to win the conference, they not only did, but they also won the National Championship. Every year Alabama loses star players but every year it reloads with talent. This year feels different though. Why? No true QB and new OC Tommy Rees (formerly with ND) running the offense.
Last year under Rees the Irish offense ranked 90th in passing. As a fan, I was not at all impressed with his play calling or how he handled communicating with the QB’s. Now he’s taking over an Alabama offense that’s projected to start Jalen Milroe at QB, who feels more like a running back playing the position. Last season Milroe was 31/53 passing with 3 TD’s and 5 INTs. On the ground he’s lethal, so I’m assuming Bama is planning to adopt more of a “ground and pound” style of offense. Although, they’re only returning 2 starters on the offensive line.
The fact that Alabama is only returning 9 out of 22 starters does not really factor into this decision. As I mentioned, they are always capable of reloading their talent with ease. But even without a QB like #1 pick Bryce Young, they typically have someone competent taking over the position. I’m sure we’ll regret it when Alabama goes 12-0, but dare I say…this feels like the beginning of the end for Saban.
The Pick: Under 10.5 Wins (-175)
LSU
Win Total: 9.5 (Over -115)
2022 Record: 10-4 (L vs Georgia in SEC Champ game, W vs Purdue in Citrus Bowl)
Brian Kelly is entering his 20th season as a Division 1 Head Coach. He’s only had 2 losing seasons. That's it. He might be a prick, but one thing’s for sure - he’s a winner. In my opinion, no coach has done more with less. We’re talking about a guy that took an Everett Golson led team to a 12-0 record and National Championship game appearance. Hell, Ian Book is the most winningest QB in the history of a school that had Joe Montana. Notre Dame is a place that can land talent, but it’s never going to land championship level talent. You have to join a conference like the Big 10 or the SEC for that…so that’s what Brian Kelly did.
In his first season at LSU, Kelly took the Tigers to an SEC Championship game. You can say expectations were exceeded. Not only was that Brian’s first season in the Beaux, but it was QB Jayden Daniels as well. JD transferred in from Arizona St, and while he maybe wasn’t the most feared guy coming in based on his performance, he’s exactly what Kelly’s offense needs to be its best: a dual threat QB.
The defense does have some serious depth issues after having lost 7 players in the secondary. There will be a ton of new faces and likely lacking chemistry, but the addition of senior LB Omar Speights (Oregon St) to play alongside Harold Perkins Jr was huge. The front 7 shouldn’t be an issue, especially if Mason Smith stays healthy.
I’m going all in on LSU this year. Even though I think teams will be able to score on this defense, my belief is that Kelly is a good enough coach with the right type of player at the most important position to get the job done. Personally, I think LSU will win a Championship within the first 5 years under BK, so I am going to blindly bet them for that reason. I ain’t stopping there though. I’m also taking Jayden Daniels to win the Heisman. He’s the second favorite after Caleb Williams, and I think the odds say it all. He rushed for almost 900 yards last season and 11 TD’s, which is great, but we’re going to need him to take a few more risks through the air. I say he does.
The Pick: LSU to win National Championship +1200, Jayden Daniels to win Heisman +900
Texas A&M
Win Total: 8.5 (Over +145)
2022 Record: 5-7
We’re not huge Jimbo Fisher guys here at The Degenerate, but we do like to buy low. Fisher and Texas A&M stock has never been lower after a 5-7 season. The offense was absolute atrocious, ranking 100th in scoring and 92nd in total yards per game. Thankfully Jimbo wasn’t stubborn and knew he had to make a big splash, so he did by bringing in Bobby Petrino to be the new offensive coordinator.
Fisher has been touted as a great recruiter consistently bringing in top 10 classes to College Station, but clearly this fucker can’t coach em. It’s about time that talent develops and wins some games. They return 8 defensive starters, but most importantly they’ve got sophomore Conner Weigman returning to start at QB. Last season they went with Haynes King (transferred to Ga Tech) was was painful to watch. Weigman was a 5 star recruit and played four games last year where he threw 8 TDs and 0 INTs. I personally saw enough to think this dude can win some football games.
The Pick: Over 8.5 Wins (+145)
Other SEC Bets:
Georgia: To win SEC (-110) - Steak
Florida: Under 5.5 Wins (+115) - The Gators brought in former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz. That’s honestly enough for us to fade. Why would anyone want a QB from Wisconsin is beyond me. They’re also only returning 7 starters. Going to be a rough year for the Gata.
Arkansas Under 7 Wins (+125) - RB Rocket Sanders seems cool, and hard not to respect a guy with a name like that, but we aren’t very high on QB KJ Jefferson.
Miss St Over 6.5 Wins (+140) - This offense returns 7 starters including QB Will Rodgers and 4/5 offensive lineman. Top 10 passing game last year. The scheme will change a bit with a new OC, but we don’t see more than 5 losses on this schedule.
RECAP:
Alabama Under 10.5 Wins (-175)
LSU to win National Championship (+1200)
Jayden Daniels to win Heisman (+900)
Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins (+145)
Georgia to win SEC (-110)
Florida Under 5.5 Wins (+115)
Arkansas Under 7 Wins (+125)
Miss St Over 6.5 Wins (+140)