College Football Preview Pt. 4
Big Ten
I know it’s tough to look at this graphic with teams like Minnesota, Illinois, Rutgers, and get excited about football. A Big Ten game that doesn’t include Ohio State is usually a perfect time to take a nap. Hang in there - the SEC preview is coming Friday.
Odds to win Conference:
Ohio State -225
Michigan +700
Wisconsin +1200
Penn State +1400
Nebraska +2000
Ohio State
2021 Record: 11-2 (8-1 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 11
The Good: Everything. Look, as a fan, I hate Ohio State. As a gambler in the 2022 season…I’m all over them. The Buckeyes finally got a taste of defeat last year, as Michigan beat them in Ann Arbor and went on to win the Big Ten. How did the Wolverines fair in their first shot at the College Football Playoff? Not good. Georgia manhandled them, and it was a good reminder that the Buckeyes are probably the only team that can hang with SEC opponents. Ohio State went on to to beat Utah in the Rose Bowl 48-45. Still, it felt like somewhat of a disappointment for this team, and that’s what I love about them coming into this year.
The Offense ranked #1 in the country last year, and returns Heisman favorite (+200) CJ Stroud, leading receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and leading RB TreVeyon Henderson. In total, this unit returns 6 starters, including 3 on the offensive live. I anticipate we see it produce the same, if not better numbers this year. However, the defense was another story. The Buckeyes ranked 97th last year in passing yards allowed per game (246). An uncharacteristically poor season from this unit given how stacked they are every year with talent. So, they went out and got arguably one of the best DC’s in the country in Jim Knowles. As we mentioned in our Big 12 preview, Knowles lead Oklahoma States defense to a top 10 ranking, and lead the country in sacks and TFL.
The Bad: It’s hard to find a weakness on this team. Trust me, I do not want to be the Buckeye slurper, but I’m left with no choice. There’s a reason they’re -225 to win the conference and +300 (behind Bama) to win the ship. If you had to pick something, it would be lack of depth with the O-line, or perhaps no guarantee that Knowles can flip the switch with this defense in year one. Ohio State also lost two stud receivers to the draft in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Although it’s hard to imagine they’ll lose sleep over that because they’re replaced with Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Pick: Ohio State to win the Championship (+300) & CJ Stroud to win Heisman (+200) — In week 1, the Buckeyes get what you’d think should be a solid test at home in facing Notre Dame. But then you look at the line, and see they’re 17.5 favorites LOL. CJ Stroud opened 5/1 to win the Heisman, and has been getting hammered with smart money. After an incredible freshmen season where he threw 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns, Stroud is now your odds on favorite. Sharps are all over Stroud and Ohio State, and I think it’s for good reason.
Michigan State
2021 Record: 11-2 (7-2 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 7.5
The Good: The Spartans return 12 starters (6 offense, 6 defense) from its 11 win team last season. Head coach Mel Tucker earned himself a huge contract extension - 10 years/$95M - after his Michigan State team started 8-0, and found themselves ranked in the Top 10. Sparty ended the year with a Peach Bowl victory over Pitt, although it was without QB Kenny Pickett who sat out for the draft.
MSU will return QB Payton Thorne, who set a school record with 27 TD passes to 10 INT’s. He’ll also have one of his favorite targets in Jayden Reed - the teams leading WR with 1,026 yards and 10 TDs. The defense was awful last year…like 130th in the country pass defense awful. Tucker worked the transfer portal, which MSU typically relies on, and got a few key transfers - most notably DB Ameer Speed (Georgia) and DE Khris Bogle (Florida). You’d have to expect the defense will improve, but only because it’s hard to get much worse.
The Bad: How often do you see an 11 win team have a 7.5 win total? That’s the real bad for the Spartans. The line tells the story, and the story here is that losing Kenneth Walker III is a big fucking deal. Walker was the Walter Camp National Player of the year. He rushed for 1,636 yards, and bailed the offense out countless times.
If you look a little deeper into MSU’s wins last year, you’ll find some were a bit flukey. They beat Michigan, but mainly due to a horrible call negating a Wolverines defensive TD that would’ve put the game out of reach (Walker also rushed for 197 yards). Then there’s the OT win at home against Nebraska, where the Spartans were outgained in yardage 442 to 254. They also only had 12 first downs and converted just 1/10 third downs. It was pathetic. Their “impressive” road win in Miami turned out to be not so impressive, as it was in week 3 and before Tyler Van Dyke made his presence known. Then of course came the 56-7 loss to Ohio State…
The Pick: UNDER 7.5 Wins (+100) — Fluke seasons happen all the time in CFB, and that’s exactly what 2021 was for Michigan State. They had the right calls, the right bounces, and the right guy at running back to carry their team. Regression is looming, and the oddsmakers know this, hence the 7.5 win total on an 11 win team returning their HC and QB. The over being juiced -120 does not scare me at all. If it was -160…that would be a different story. I think they are baiting you into taking this over. Don’t fall for it.
Nebraska
2021 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 7.5
The Good: Adrian Martinez is no longer the QB at Nebraska. It honestly felt like he’s been there since the Vietnam War. Addition by subtraction! Good riddance, I say. I’m no Scott Frost defender, but Martinez was just not the guy. Now, not only will the Huskers get a fresh face at QB (all signs point to Texas transfer Casey Thompson), but they also brought in Mark Whipple to be the new OC. Whipple was Pitt’s OC last year, whose offense ranked 8th in the country.
Similar to MSU - the line tells us the story here, but in a positive way. A 3-9 team now has a 7.5 win total with the over juiced. If you dig into the 2021 season, you’ll find that Nebraska somehow lost all 9 games by 9 points or less (7 within one possession). These games include @ Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and @ Wisconsin. So it’s not like they had a cupcake schedule either. The oddsmakers are well aware that there’s potential with this team.
The Bad: Scott Frost is just 15-29 since becoming Nebraska’s head coach. Could it be that he’s just not a good coach? Sure, but I don’t think that’s the case. With that said, I won’t let him completely off the hook because it was his decision to stick with Martinez last year. Nebraska is returning 10 starters (5 offense, 5 defense) which means some new guys will certainly need to step up in order to win 8 games. The Huskers lose both of their top producing WR from last season, as well as their entire D-line and most of the secondary.
The Pick: OVER 7.5 Wins (-120) — I can not emphasize enough how much Adrian Martinez held this team back. Did enough to keep them in games, but never enough to win them. I’m sure he’s a good guy, but he was not a great QB. Shame on Frost for sticking with it. Nevertheless, with a new QB and OC, there’s reason for optimism in Lincoln. The schedule also gets much softer too, as they go from facing Ohio State and Michigan St last year, to Indiana and Rutgers in 2022. The Huskers will open the season in Dublin, Ireland against Northwestern. After that, they’ll have 4 straight home games, which should be enough to shake off the jet lag and get us 8 wins.
RECAP:
Ohio State to win it all (+300) 3 Units
CJ Stroud to win Heisman (+200) 2 Units
Michigan State UNDER 7.5 (+100) 1 Unit
Nebraska OVER 7.5 (-120) 2 Units