Expect more of the same from this juggernaut of a conference. Alabama and Georgia both have win totals at 10.5 with overs juiced above -200. Tells you all you need to know. The Tide return Bryce Young (+400 to win Heisman), Will Anderson (+3000 to win Heisman) and Nick Saban. That’s probably enough to get them back in the Championship. Georgia lost just about their entire defense to the NFL Draft, but Stetson Bennet returns at QB, who’s good but certainly not sexy. Despite having another all SEC College Football Championship game, it was nice to finally see a new winner. Aside from the top dogs, there is some excitement in the middle of the pack. It’s kind of like watching an F1 race. You know either Red Bull or Mercedes are going to win, but what about Ferrari and McClaren?
The Aggies continue to recruit well under Jimbo Fisher, and did finally beat Alabama in the regular season, but can’t quite jump into the “elite” category yet as they finished the year unranked. Kentucky and Tennessee both showed some serious promise, as well as Arkansas. All three teams return their QB’s. As for the new faces - LSU hired Brian Kelly and Florida hired Billy Napier. Being a Notre Dame fan, I can tell you the fit for BK in the South is hilarious, but there is no doubt in my mind this guy is going to bring a Ship to LSU within the next 5 years. It may not be a light switch scenario and this team wins 10 games in his first year, but it will happen very soon. Spencer Rattler transferred from Oklahoma after the emergence of Caleb Williams to play QB at South Carolina. Lane Kiffin should keep the Rebels competitive, but they did lose QB Matt Corral to the draft, and OC Jeff Lebby is now at Oklahoma.
Odds to win Conference:
Alabama -140
Georgia +160
Texas A&M +1800
Kentucky +4000
Tennessee +5000
Texas A&M
2021 Record: 8-4 (4-4 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 8.5
The Good: Jimbo Fisher and a top recruiting class go together like peanut butter and jelly. No doubt the guy can bring in talent. The problem is he can’t seem to strike gold at QB. This year, the Aggies not only get back Haynes King (last years starter before he went down in week 2 with knee injury) but they also welcome LSU transfer Max Johnson (son of Brad Johnson). Max was solid last year - passing for almost 3,000 years, 27 TD’s and 6 INTs. Whoever wins the job will have stellar talent around them, including RB Devon Achane who’s one of the fastest players in the conference.
The Bad: The Aggies only return 10 starters (5 offense and 5 defense). On top of being somewhat inexperienced, they don’t have a sure fire stud at the QB position. The Aggies were able to upset Bama last year, but couldn’t beat teams like Arkansas, Miss St, Ole Miss and LSU. They’ve got a ton of hype this year after another good recruiting haul, but the clock is ticking on Jimbo, and the oddsmakers aren’t showing a ton of confidence in them finally figuring it out with an 8.5 win total. If this was 9/9.5, I’d think differently.
The Pick: UNDER 8.5 Wins (+150) — Personally, I like Jimbo. He seems like a fun coach to play for, but does he really have the X’s and O’s of football figured out? Probably not. Regardless of what you think of Jameis Winston as a pro, you cannot deny he was an incredible college QB. Jimbo needs that to get the Aggies over the hump, and I’m not quite sure he does. A&M is getting tons of hype after beating Bama last year, but let’s be honest…it ain’t happening again in this years Saban revenge spot.
Tennessee
2021 Record: 7-6 (4-4 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 7.5
The Good: The Vols return 15 starters (8 offense, 7 defense) including their starting QB Hendon Hooker, RB Jabari Small and top WR Cedric Tillman. They also get back 4 starters on the O-line. In Josh Heupel’s first year as head coach, he did a complete overhaul, as 45 players left the program. Hooker was a transfer from Va Tech, and stepped in after Joe Milton got hurt. His performance shocked the conference, as the Vols offense scored the most points in school history - averaging 39 PPG which was 2nd only to Bama in the SEC.
The Bad: Playing Alabama and Georgia in the same year should be illegal in all 50 states. Of course every SEC schedule is tough, but that’s just another level of cruel. Tennessee’s offense lead by Hendon Hooker should continue to thrive in Heupels system, but they’re going to need the defense to improve. The Vols D ranked 99th nationally overall, and 122nd in passing yards allowed per game. They also need to replace two starting DB’s. The Vols non-conference opponent is @ Pitt in week 2, which is still no cupcake despite not having Kenny Pickett.
The Pick: OVER 7.5 Wins (-170) — I think there are 8 wins on this schedule, especially for a team returning so many starters and with such an explosive offense. What I like most is that they face opponents Florida and LSU in weeks 4 and 5. Both schools have new coaches, so you want to play them earlier in the year while they’re still figuring it out. We also expect a down year from South Carolina, so a road trip against the Gamecocks in week 11 does not scare us. If we had to get cute and pick a team not named Georgia or Alabama to win the SEC, it would be the Vols at +5000.
South Carolina
2021 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 6.5
The Good: Second year HC Shane Beamer seems to be a guy who’s well liked by players and fans. He went 7-6 in his first season and ended the year on a high note beating in-state rival UNC in the highly coveted (lol) Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The Cocks defense is what really stood out last year, with the 7th nationally ranked pass defense. The D only returns 5 starters, but the most important one being All-SEC second team DB Cam Smith. Their offense was abysmal, but there’s a some hope with Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler taking over at QB. Beamer was the OC at Oklahoma in 2019-20 so the two are familiar with each other. The O-line also returns 5 guys who all started a game at some point.
The Bad: I am not a believer in Rattler. Sure, he had a very good 2020 season (3,000 yards, 28 touchdowns), but that type of regression from a once projected 1st overall NFL Draft pick is concerning. I don’t think he’s that talented of a QB, and I think he’s even worse of a teammate. If you disagree, then you should not fade the Cocks. 7-5 is doable, but I think that UF will improve, who they beat last year. Also, Vanderbilt won 2 games in 2021, and the Gamecocks beat them 21-20. They also only beat ECU by 3 and Troy by 9. I think this team is much worse than people realize.
The Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins (-150) — Plain and simple, I ain’t buying Spencer Rattler. I see 5 wins on this schedule, and can still hit this with one unexpected. I will gladly take that. Also, I’m sure Shane Beamer is a nice guy, and I really liked his dad Frank…but I gotta fade this cornball.
Mississippi State
2021 Record: 7-6 (4-4 Conf)
2022 Win Total: 6.5
The Good: HC Mike Leach gets his school record breaking QB Will Rodgers back for a third season as the starter. Together, they had the nations 4th best passing offense. The offense returns just 5 starters, but the defense returns 7. Shockingly for a Mike Leach coach team, the D was ranked 30th nationally, which is respectable. The non-conference opponent is always crucial with these season total bets, and this year it’s Arizona, who has a win total of 2.5.
The Bad: Miss State does have one of the the hardest schedules overall, due to the fact they (like Tennessee) have to play both Georgia and Alabama. The biggest question mark for this team from a position standpoint is the offensive line. They lost their LT Charles Cross, who was the 5th overall pick in the draft, but do replace with him a mammoth 6-8 345 lb junior college transfer.
The Pick: OVER 6.5 Wins (-135) — I love Mike Leach, and I love his offense. He’s 11-13 in his first two years coaching a team in the SEC, but I think with his experienced QB back, they have a chance to be a team that will surprise most. If you look at their schedule last year, they had some very closes losses: @ Memphis by 2, LSU by 3 and @ Arkansas by 5. State finished the year 7-5 in the regular season, and either of those games could have gone the other way. They also play an Ole Miss team that we expect to regress, which they lost to 31-21 in 2021.
RECAP:
Texas A&M UNDER 8.5 (+150) 1 Unit
Tennessee OVER 7.5 (-170) 2 Units
South Carolina UNDER 6.5 (-150) 2 Units
Mississippi State OVER 6.5 (-135) 1 Unit