College Football Season Preview Pt. 1
The Atlantic Coast Conference
Did you read the subject line of this email and say “fuck yes”…? Good! The time is almost upon us. Week 0 starts on August 27th. That means you've got just about a month to finalize your research and get your future bets in.
You could buy magazines, read articles and listen to podcasts to get all of your information. Or, you could lean on us to do the legwork for you, and consolidate what’s most important about the teams that are worth a damn in a few paragraphs. The choice is yours.
We decided to start with the two conferences that are least likely to make it move - ACC & Pac-12 (coming Friday). It’s highly unlikely that either of these excite you, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things that may interest you. Both had some big changes in the coaching landscape - headlined by Lincoln Riley to USC and Mario Cristobal to Miami. Is the U finally back? Is USC the most improved or most overhyped team - or both? Can NC State win the ACC? Nobody knows the answers, but we do have hunches.
ACC
To win Conference:
Clemson -155
Miami +600
NC State +800
Pittsburgh +1200
Wake Forest +1600
UNC +2500
*Odds per Fanduel
CLEMSON
2021 Record: 10-3 (6-2 conf)
2022 Season Win Total: 10.5
The Good: Dabo stole 5 star and top QB recruit Cade Klubnik from Austin, Texas. Now the Tigers have some insurance should DJ Uiagalelei end up not being the guy. We’ve seen backups save seasons, like last year with Caleb Williams (Oklahoma) and Cameron Rising (Utah). On the flip side, maybe some legit competition will be what he needs to turn the corner. The offensive line wasn’t very good last year, but it does return four starters. Continuity is always important at that position.
On defense, Clemson is expected to be about as good as ever. Swinny has said he expects 7 D-lineman to be drafted next year. If he’s right, then this D could be as scary as Georgia was last year. The Tigers also ended the season on a 6 game win streak after a 4-3 start. Losing to Georgia 10-3 in the season opener doesn’t look so bad now, as the Bulldogs were eventual champs.
The Bad: The Tigers are replacing both their OC and DC, and did so by promoting from within. Not exactly what the fans were hoping for, as they wanted a big name to make a splash. Brent Venables was one of the best D coordinators in the country (now Oklahoma HC), and his absence will most likely be felt. However, there is a decent chance Clemson has enough talent to overcome that.
The real bad is DJ Uiagalelei. He had high hopes after playing almost flawless football in his first two starts filling in for Lawrence when he missed two games due to covid in 2020, including on the road @ Notre Dame. But my goodness did he crash hard. Last year DJ (+3000 to win Heisman) threw more interceptions (10) than TD’s (9), and only threw for over 200 yards 4 times. Keep in mind – this is against ACC defenses, and UConn once. Rough! The Tigers offense ranked 103rd in YPG last year. Outside of that, Clemson didn’t lose much talent to the NFL Draft. They’ll need to replace 3 starting DB’s, so you could say secondary is their biggest question mark…assuming DJ improves. Which I would say is far from guaranteed.
The Pick: Over 10.5 (+105) 1 Unit - As we saw last year - Defense still wins Championships. It’s still a very weak ACC that Clemson should run through easily. The toughest games on the schedule are hosting NC St and Miami, and a trip to ND. Given that NC St is a revenge game, and expecting ND to regress, we like Clemsons chances at going 11-1.
MIAMI
2021 Record: 7-5 (5-3 conf)
2022 Season Win Total: 8.5
The Good: The Hurricanes may have finally found their HC to bring the U back to the glory days. Enter: Mario Cristobal. Personally, I do not think he’s a great coach, but the guy sure can recruit. Ultimately – that’s what matters most in college football. If Cristobal can bring elite talent back to Miami, then they will be a problem. But it’ll be a few years before his “guys” takeover the roster. What should be noted is the staff Cristobal has put together. The experience from Charlie Strong and moxie from guys like Ed Reed and Jason Taylor could certainly have an immediate impact on Miami’s current squad.
What the Canes do have right now is a promising QB in Tyler Van Dyke. Houston transfer D’Eriq King was supposed to solve the Canes QB problem last year, but even before his injury in week 3, he didn’t deliver. TVD stepped in and had a bumpy start with two straight losses, but then finished strong winning 5/6 to end the year. He passed for over 300 yards in every single game. TVD doesn’t have a ton of weapons around him, but Cristobal did already pull some magic when he flipped #1 TE recruit from Alabama. The offensive line returns 3 starters, including stud LT Zion Nelson.
The Bad: A good QB can cover a lot of problems offensively, so losing a record-setting WR like Charleston Rambo doesn’t concern me all that much. What does give me some apprehension on betting the Canes heavily is their inexperience on the other side of the ball. Miami only returns 4 starters on defense. Cristobal has done what he can to fill the holes by using the transfer portal, but nobody really knows how these guys are going to perform in this system without some sort of sample size. I want to buy all the Miami hype, but I think we’ll just do some of it.
The Pick: Over 8.5 wins (-120) 2 Units – at the end of the day, Miami still has a relatively weak ACC schedule. Before heading to Texas A&M in week 3, they start the year with Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss. Essentially two bye weeks to prepare. Even with a loss at A&M, and let’s say Clemson, we can still win the over with another loss to UNC, Pitt or FSU. Sign me up.
NC STATE
2021 Record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)
2022 Season Win Total: 8.5
The Good: Hard to find something that isn’t good with NC State. We actually had the Wolfpack to win the ACC last year at 40/1, and they came up just one game short. Aside from their week 2 loss at Miss St, the Wolfpack lost their other 2 games by a combined 4 points. An 11-1 season was actually within reach, mostly due to the incredible play by QB Devin Leary, who broke Phillip Rivers TD Passing record last year by one.
Having success in college football is one thing, maintaining it is another. If you aren’t one of the big name schools, you’re most liklely not reloading your roster every year with 5 stars. So when you have the right roster, you have to take advantage. That is exactly the situation NC State finds themselves in, as they return 17 (!) starters – 7 offense, 9 defense and the kicker.
The Bad: The only real question marks with this team appear to be replacing Ikem Ekwonu at LT and finding a reliable running back. But let’s look past the X’s and O’s for a second. The real problem for NC State? Expectations. We see this all the time in college football. A young team comes out of nowhere, only to disappoint the following season when the bar is raised. Recent examples would be the 2021 seasons of Iowa State and North Carolina.
2020
UNC = 8-4 (returning Sam Howell)
Iowa St = 9-3 (returning Brock Purdy and Breece Hall)
2021
UNC = 6-7
Iowa St = 7-6
I know we keep repeating it, but it must be said – they do have a fairly weak ACC schedule. The non-conference opponents this year are ECU (week 1) and Texas Tech. Perhaps combined, you could say it’s a tad more difficult than last years USF and Miss St games (1-1). Still, the line Vegas has set of 8.5 seems like the “too easy” bet in this conference.
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins (+140) - We may sit and wait to see if this moves to 9. It’s hard to find 3 losses on this schedule, but you must remember that we at the Degenerate are contrarian bettors, and NC State will be a very trendy pick to get 9+ wins. Buy low, sell high.
Honorable Mentions (we’ll keep these short):
Wake Forest UNDER 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit – Returning standout QB Sam Hartman who’s on everyone’s radar after scoring 50 TD’s last year (39 passing, 11 rushing). Wake is coming off an 11 win season, and returning their QB means they’re ripe to be a public over that we will be fading. There’s a reason Vegas has this total set at 8.5 and the under is juiced. Could it be that they lost their All ACC Kicker?! You laugh, but the Deacons did have 4 games decided by exactly 3 points last year (3-1).
UNC OVER 6.5 (-160) 1 Unit – It’s not easy betting the over on a team that’s coming off a disappointing season AND losing their star QB. After being ranked in the top 10 in 2021, the Tar Heels finished the season 7-6 (0-5 on the road). Sam Howell is gone, and we aren’t 100% sure who’s next in line, but thinking it’s Drake Maye (brother of UNC BBALL player Luke Maye). UNC has the talent - putting together 3 straight top 15 recruiting classes, but clearly Mack Brown is coming to the end of his coaching career. We think the old fella pulls off one more run! (lol jk). What it really comes down to is this team has a lethal offensive scheme, skilled athletes, and once again…a soft schedule. I don’t see 5 losses, and that’s probably why the juice is so heavy on the over. Fear it not.
RECAP:
Clemson OVER 10.5 (+105) 1 Unit
Miami OVER 8.5 (-120) 2 Units
NC State UNDER 8.5 (+140) 1 Unit — wait to see if it moves to 9
Wake Forest UNDER 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
UNC OVER 6.5 (-160) 1 Unit