Season Win Totals
Arkansas St OVER 3.5 -165
That’s right – Arkansas STATE, baby. Not the razorbacks. I like to call’em Ark St for short. The Red Wolves finished last year with a 4-7 record but did so swapping QB’s every game. Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher split time throughout the season, but Bonner is now at Utah St, as it appeared Hatcher was going to be the guy going into 2021. Their notable win last year came @ Kansas State. They lost their last 3 games all by one possession, and Hatcher finished the season with 19 TD’s and 2 INT’s. There’s a reason the juice on this is -165. Don’t even worry about it – just lay it with the over here and cash in 12 weeks.
Alabama UNDER 11.5 -125
Since Covid hit, I’m sure most of you reading this are now day traders. What’s rule number one? What goes up, must come down. There’s always a looming correction for every market. This is the year for Bama’s. There’s no point in even discussing how many players they lost to the draft, because it’s nothing new to Saban. The dude replaces his NFL 1st rounders with more every year. It’s honestly some real sick shit. They’ll slip up one game this year though. I think A&M will get em.
Kansas St OVER 5.5 -145
Kansas State lost the last 5 games of the 2020 season, but most people probably forgot they also lost their starting QB Skylar Thompson to injury in week 3. State had a tough loss in week 1 (see above), but bounced back in week 2 with a win at Oklahoma. Skylar hurt his shoulder in week 3 and missed the remainder of the season. His stats before the injury:
40/64 - 626 yards - 4TDs - 0 INTS
Not bad! The Wildcats are also returning their entire offensive line. I like the Wildcats to get a win out of the gate against Stanford opening week, and be a tough out for the big boys in this conference.
Miami OVER 9 -130
The Canes are back. Stud QB D’Eriq King tore his ACL in last years bowl game loss to Ok St, but somehow this fucking guy is expected to be ready for the season opener against Alabama. Welcome back! But once that games out of the way, it’s fairly smooth sailing as always in the ACC. They avoid Clemson in the regular season, and their out of conference game is a declining Michigan State at home. The Canes lost a few key players on defense but return most of their weapons on offense. Even if King isn’t ready, apparently there’s a true freshman with lots of hype who can play. The only other ranked opponent on the schedule is UNC, and we think they’re going to have a down year. Plus, the Heels kicked Miami’s ass last year, so this will be revenge. I’m not seeing 3 or more losses on this schedule.
UNC UNDER 9.5 -110
Speaking of UNC! Maybe I’ll regret it, but I’m just not on the Sam Howell hype train. I do appreciate what Mack Brown has done in his short time at UNC. The guy flipped a switch and somehow attracted top talent to Chapel Hill. Perhaps a Hugh Freeze situation? Time will tell. For now, I think they are overvalued, and I love having half a game here. They lost both of their star RB’s to the NFL and their top pass catcher. First game of the season is a night game in Blacksburg and I’m sure that place is going to be absolutely rocking (they’re also serving beer now for the first time in 56 years). The Heels are losing to Va Tech, ND and Miami at minimum.
Stanford UNDER 4 -110
The juice has been squeezed out of the David Shaw lemon. It sure was one helluva run though, but Stanford having a win total of 4 is a big sign his time is coming to an end. The Cardinal lost 2 year starter Davis Mills to the draft, but of course they’ve got plenty of 6’4 dudes with big arms to replace him. The issue I have with Stanford is that the Pac-12 is getting better overall, yet the Cardinal are trending in the opposite direction. They just had their wort recruiting class in over a decade. I’m sure they’ll be tough, they’re always tough, but playing 6 ranked opponents is not ideal for a team with uncertainty at QB and a lack of weapons.
ND UNDER 8.5 -105
Pretty low total for a team that went 10-0 in the regular season last year, wouldn’t you say? And for good reason. The Irish lost A LOT of talent, including Ian Book who now holds the record for most career wins at ND. In comes Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan taking the reins at QB. Look, I don’t know how many Badger football games you’ve watched, but the passing game ain’t exactly their strong suit. Wisconsin runs the ball 50+ times a game, and all they ask out of the QB position is to throw a few slants. I’ve heard this guy is pretty good, but I’m not sold. Brian Kelly’s system can be a bit complex. The Irish face 4 ranked opponents, and that doesn’t include an opening week trip to Tallahassee, where they could easily slip up when the Noles honor Bobby Bowden.
Conference Champs:
Pac 12 – UTAH +400
Hand up, I have a coaching crush on Kyle Wittingham. Utah landed Baylor QB Charlie Brewer who’s a 4-year starter, and Utah returns all 5 offensive lineman.
Big 12 – Iowa St +320
The Cyclones are legit. Matt Campbell has done a great job, and Brock Purdy seems to be the real deal at QB (see our Heisman picks). Aside from slipping up in an opening loss last year to Louisiana, their only other losses were to Oklahoma St and Oklahoma by a combined 9 points. OU at -190 will probably take the throne, but it’s much more fun to take a good team at a plus price.
ACC – BC +3500 and/or NC ST +4500
Clemson being -700 is just ridiculous. They’ll probably run away with it, but I like to have skin in every major conference. Going with two longshots here who both have some value. I lean toward BC a little more due to the fact that ex ND QB Phil Jurkevic looked great in his first year starting. They also played @ Clemson last year and were up early before blowing an 18 point lead.
Big 10 – Michigan +2500
I hate Michigan with a passion. Loved Harbaugh in the NFL, but love watching him suffer in Ann Arbor. With that said…this fucker has to put a successful season together at some point, right? If not, this has to be his last year. After favorite Ohio St -200, It’s Wisconsin and Penn St at +900…but I don’t trust either of them. Should probably go chalk with the Buckeyes, but I’m going to take a shot on Harbaugh finally figuring it out.
SEC – Texas A&M +1200
Jimbo Fisher is growing on me. I think he’s got the talent at A&M this year to be a real problem. 4-year starter Kellen Mond is (finally) gone. I was not a fan, and think he held them back tremendously. I’m not going to pretend I know shit about who’s up next at QB, but I trust Jimbo.
AAC – UCF +400
First year for Gus Malzahn in Central Florida and I think he’s going to flourish. I don’t love him as a coach, but I like his offenses. With the right guy in charge they can put up 40+ points each week. Similar to Mond, I thought Bo Nix really hindered that offense at Auburn for Gus. Love that he’s out of the SEC and think Doug Gabriel is a great fit for his offense.
Heisman Bets:
Favorites:
DJ Uiagalelei +1000 – Big shoes to fill with Hair Jesus leaving. DJ has already some big game experience with a stellar performance on the road @ ND last year. He put up 400+ yards 2 TD’s and zero INT’s.
Matt Corral +1600 – Lane Train baby. The dude lost 80 pounds and he LOVES to throw the ball.
Middle shots:
Kedon Slovis +2500 - Potential sex machine out of USC.
Desmond Ridder +3000 – If you’re wondering why Cincinnati is ranked in the top 10, it’s because of this guy. Love the value play here. He can run and throw.
Brock Purdy +3000 - Scroll up, Cyclones are going to be legit.
Long shots:
Jack Coan +8000 – think of this as a hedge to your Irish under bet. If they end up being good, they’re probably going to be very good. And if they’re very good, it’s probably because Jack Coan somehow ended up being the fucking man.
Phil Jurkevic +15000 – High on BC this year. Burrow won it being 100/1, why not Phil?!