(Meme made by our talented graphics guy Greg aka Dino)
Welcome to Season 4 of The Degenerate. If you’re new here, then welcome! Every weekend from now through February (Super Bowl) you’ll be receiving emails from us Friday mornings with our favorite picks in College Football and the NFL. Myself (Degen), Greg (Dino) and Jake (Steak) will breakdown what we like, and why we like it.
The newsletter has been and will always be free. However, Substack has introduced an option for readers to show support by pledging money and supporting writers like us. Since we’ve enabled that option, we’ve had 25+ of you upgrade to “paid”. For that, we want to say THANK YOU for the contributions. We absolutely love doing this, and it means a lot that you all enjoy reading what we have to say about sports betting.
Now let’s get down to business. I typically do not get too involved in Week 1. My betting strategy really relies on a sample size and recent performance, so without having that I’ll be treading lightly. Given there’s so much turnover in College Football, it’s very hard to predict what type of talent/scheme each team has. Steak on the other hand will be pressing more buttons, as he leans into last seasons performance and offseason narratives. You’ll see a lot more picks from me moving forward, but for now, I’ll be a bit more selective.
Also - please be sure to follow us on Twitter. We do our best to put our favorite plays in the newsletter before the weekend, but sometimes a game will speak to us Saturday morning or right before kickoff. These will not be on our official newsletter record, but if you want to know every bet we’re making, then follow us there and also on the Action Network app where we track all of our bets.
Degens Best Bets
Louisville -7.5 vs Georgia Tech — L’Ville has a new head coach in Jeff Brohm (Purdue), and I personally think this is going to be a great fit. Brohm used to play for L’Ville, and did a fantastic job with the Boilermakers. But this isn’t so much to do with Louisville as it has to do with fading Goergia Tech’s new starting QB Haynes King. King was the starter at Texas A&M last year. If you’ve never watched him play, then do yourself a favor - don’t! I bet on and followed the Aggies last year more times than I’d like to admit, and I came away thinking he was one of if not the worst QB in the country. Trusting my eyeballs on this one.
Iowa -23.5 vs Utah St — Speaking of late adds, I started to come around on the Hawkeyes and added their OVER 8 wins to my futures card at the buzzer. I respect Kirk Ferentz as a head coach, although I’m not a huge fan of nepotism, and his son (Brian) might be an awful offensive coordinator. Brian has a new contract clause that states Iowa has to score 25 points per game in order for him to keep his job after an ABYSMAL 2022 showing. They only scored 25+ twice last season. New QB Cade McNamara (Michigan) is apparently banged up, but all signs are pointing to him starting. Utah State isn’t necessarily a juggernaut, but they aren’t William & Mary either. I think Iowa makes a statement early.
TCU -20.5 vs Colorado — The Horned Frogs are fresh off their first National Championship appearance (we won’t talk about the score), so you’d think they would be trendy against a team with a 3.5 win total, right? Wrong. TCU not only lost starting QB and heisman finalist Max Duggan, but stud WR Quentin Johnston (NFL) and OC Garrett Riley (Clemson) are gone as well. TCU has a ton of new faces, but they still have HC Sonny Dykes. The Frogs open their season against a new look Colorado team with tons of hype after they hired Deion Sanders to be HC. After the hire, 80% of the Buffs roster left, which had sharps hammering their win total under and moving the market from 5.5 to 3.5 games. Meanwhile the public still has an appetite for getting down with Deion and his son Shedeur who's been named the starting QB, and actually looked pretty good in the spring game. Colorado is a trendy dog, and you know what we do with those: FADE.
LSU -2.5 vs FSU — Allow me to introduce to you our first official College Football Squad Ride! We are dodging the points and drinking the juice with the Tigers on the ML (-140). This decision came down to two things:
The FSU hype is at an all time high.
Brian Kelly.
Now we must admit, FSU is not a team we will be fading in the future market or much at all during the season. We really can’t find anything to not like about this team, it’s just that we aren’t believers in Mike Norvell…yet. Now he does deserve respect for being 3-0 ATS in meetings against Brian Kelly, as well as winning straight up in their matchup last season in the Super Dome. But let’s be honest - if there was ever a time to take down BK, it would be in his first ever game at a new school with a QB transfer also making his first start in a new uniform. FSU still almost found a way to blow it. At the end of the day, we don’t see Norvell going 2-0 against Kelly in this SEC vs ACC showdown. In our honest opinion, we don’t even think LSU has the talent advantage. FSU is fucking loaded. The Tigers also suspended stud D-lineman Masaon Smith for this game, who’s projected to be one of their top players on defense. The Degen eggs are going in the coaching basket here. In BK we trust.
Steaks Best Bets
Iowa -23.5 vs Utah St — Steak cosigns, but not a squad ride.
Purdue -4.5 vs Fresno St — Fresno St went 10-4 last year and finished ranked in the top 25. It was their 4th 10 win season in the last 6. They’ve also won 4 straight bowl games. Purdue lost QB Aidan O’Connell and have a new head coach. Fresno feels like a VERY trendy dog here, especially considering Purdue burned the public last year by not covering to PSU in their home opener.
Wyoming +14 vs Texas Tech — Tech was 8-5 last year and returns 17 starters. Wyoming ranked 118th offensively last season. Doesn’t feel like enough points. Tech is a sexy sleeper pick to make some noise in the Big 12. We feel like the line may be short for a reason.
Rice +35 vs Texas — Seems kinda low vs trendy Texas? Lost by 42 in last years season opener against USC. 88% of the bets and 91% of the money is on the Longhorns. Full contrarian pick here.
WVU +20.5 vs Penn St — Seems like bait to bet Penn St, who’s stock feels like it’s never been higher. WVU projected by a lot of people to be last in their division.
RECAP:
Louisville -7.5
Iowa -23.5
TCU -20.5
LSU ML -140 (Squad Ride)
Purdue -4.5
Wyoming +14
Rice +35
WVU +20.5
Miami OH +16.5 (Dino Best Bet)
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