Conference Championships
All Downhill From Here
What’s the only thing worse than going 1-3 in the greatest Divisional Round in NFL history? Going 1-3 while missing two juicy ML dogs. We can bitch and moan about about how we need to be better, but when it comes down to it, literally every single game last week ended on the final play and had a coin flip element to it. Now don’t get us wrong, we’re as upset about losing units as you are - but we aren’t here to dwell on the losses. We are here to bounce back and sweep the leg for two monster games this weekend. Onward!
NFL Conference Championships
Current Record: 90-72-2 YTD
Bet on Mahomes, without betting against Burrow - Bengals @ Chiefs -7.5 Total 48
I’ll be caught dead before fading Joe Burrow again. If I was 21 years old, I’d be backing Burrow every single game. He’s just oozing swagger and I would not be able to resist. But as a “seasoned” 34 year old gambler, you start to factor the coaching staff into your bets. That’s what happened with us and the Bengals this whole year. We didn’t fade Burrow, we faded Zach Taylor, and it fucking BURNS.
So here we go again. Temptation to fade the Bengals finds it’s way back into my veins. This line is high. Despite the Chiefs and Mahomes being the talk of the town after winning what everyone considers the real Super Bowl, the dog seems to be trendy here. However KC opened -7 and we’ve already got it ticking up to 7.5. It will be interesting to see how much (if any) buyback there will be on the Bengals at this number or if it gets up to 8. Nevertheless, as tempted as we are to hop on the Chiefs, we just can’t do it. But we have another way to play this game…and that’s with the Chiefs TT (team total).
These teams met a few weeks ago, and the Bengals stormed back from 14 down to mount a comeback win in Cincinnati, which helped them secure the division title. The Chiefs were moving the ball at will until the 2H. Cinci locked down KC, holding them to 3 second half points, and Jamar Chase went OFF for 266 receiving yards and 3 TD’s.
The play here is the Cheifs team total over 31.5 points. As we mentioned, they put up 28 in the 1H in Cinci, and we see no reason they won’t be able to score early and often in the rematch at home. Kelce was held to 25 yards, and Tyreek Hill only had 40. Tip of the cap to Bengals defense, but we do not expect a repeat performance. Pat gets back to the Super Bowl after a year that started with many wondering if he was broken.
The Pick: Chiefs TT Over 31.5
…Baby I got your number - 49ers @ Rams +3.5 Total 45.5
It doesn’t get much better than getting a third go at a divisional opponent with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Despite winning their last six against the Rams, San Fran enters this one as a short dog. Bettors are pretty split here and rightfully so. After last weekend, it’s tough to love either of these teams to advance. The Rams came out scorching hot and might have ended the career of the GOAT, even though they did literally everything they could to give the game away in the 2nd half. Insane that a 27-3 lead near the end of the third quarter turned into a last second FG for a 30-27 win.
The 49ers all but ended Aaron Rodgers 17 year relationship with Green Bay. It’s a miracle Jimmy G only threw one interception, but we aren’t here to shit all over pretty boy. He did make a few (very few) key throws, and did just enough to keep them in it. Fun stat: In the last 3 years the 49ers are 8-2 in games where Jimmy G doesn’t throw a touchdown pass. Which leads us to bet on one thing and one thing only in this one. Kyle Shanahan. It’s just tough to fade the better coach, despite taking an inferior QB and a banged up team into the game. Now, Trent Williams and Deebo are both expected to play, but we’ll have to wait and see how effective they can be after getting injured in Lambeau.
The 49ers feel like a team of destiny, and we aren’t trying to stand in their way. We might get cute on this one though - a pick that stands out to us is Rams to win by exactly 1-6 pts. The juice is typically in the +325 range and well worth it for what should be a hard fought game. Rams win, 49ers cover.
The Pick: 49ers +4 (Buy .5)
Ohh yeah… and while we’re at it…
AHHHHHHAHHHHAAAHH UNDER!!! 49ers @ Rams Under 45.5
Thank you again to everyone for following! Please share with any degenerate in your life. We’ll see you back here in two weeks with more props than Carrot Top.