Final Four and MLB Season Bets
Stay The Course
(Coach K fakes injury and falls down)
We made it. Wasn’t pretty, and we took our lumps, but we have finally arrived to the Final Four. On deck is one of the most anticipated games ever as UNC and Duke meet each other for the first time in the tournament. The books anticipate this game will set an all time record with betting volume. Now more than ever - it’s time to stay sharp.
Quick recap, because there’s a valuable lesson to be learned from last weekend. If you follow systems and strategies, do not waiver after a bad stretch. We got banged up in the Sweet 16 (3-5) as the two trendiest dogs not only covered, but won outright (Arkansas over Gonzaga, St Peters over Purdue). We stayed consistent, and bounced back bigly in the Elite 8 going 4-0. Nothing is foolproof. Remember that sharps hit 54% of their bets. You have to trust your betting style and stick with it.
We wanted to include our MLB preview in this weeks edition, because next week is The Masters, and out of respect we feel that the entire newsletter should be devoted to it. Especially if you know who is playing…
#2 Villanova vs #1 Kansas -4.5 Total 133
This game plays right into one of our favorite betting systems. Betting on a team missing a star player. Why? Because we buy bad news, and sell good news.
Justin Moore suffered a terrible injury late in the Houston game. He was Villanova’s second leading scorer, and they’re a team that only plays 6 guys. Now it’s down to 5. An injury to a team that’s known for not being deep is about the worst thing that could happen. And yet, as bettors, we are going to back them.
Kansas started slow in their matchup with Miami, and actually trailed at halftime. But the 2H was a massacre. Credit to Bill Self for making some incredible adjustments, as Kansas outscored the Canes 47-15 and eventually won 76-50. The Jayhawks entered the tournament with the 2nd best odds to win it all. They’ve been given respect, and the public are all over them.
Nova with the points is your textbook contrarian play here. Other than just buying bad news, they’re still a very well coached and disciplined team. Jay Wright is not only handsome as hell, but he’s pretty good at what he does.
One of the most frustrating things about college basketball is watching these kids miss free throws. They’re teenagers, so we can only get so mad. But…come on..make them! Well guess what you don’t have to worry about with Nova? Making free throws! They are the best team in the country at the line. Feels nice to invest in that, I tell ya.
We’re going to wait till game-time and let the public continue getting their Kansas tickets, hoping that the line will go up to 5 or 5.5. Look, Kansas probably wins this game, but it doesn’t matter. We stay the course, and stay contrarian.
The Pick: Villanova +4.5
UNC vs Duke -4 Total 151
As big of a final four matchup as you can ever imagine, with even more on the line as Coach K approaches the 1-year mark of announcing his retirement. One thing we hate to see as bettors is when both big games have the same spread. Call us superstitious, but it’s quite common in these situations to see one team win/cover and the other to come up short. And thus, we absolutely love the Villanova pick for reasons stated above, which leads us to the inevitable.
If Duke winning this game doesn’t make you want to throw up, congratulations! You’re probably a lawyer and your dad is too. Believe us, the heart wants the Heels, but the brain and the soul just know it’s too good to be true. We’re ready to be hurt everywhere but our wallet.
The line is just enough points to make you want to back the Heels with the points, but the sharps are all over Duke. We guess this means the self-mounted farewell tour of a humble king continues. Not happy about this pick at all, but the Coach K is going to haunt us all the way to the Championship game. Glimmer of hope is with the media circus that follows him will build up the hype and setup a potential letdown in the in final.
The Pick: Duke ML and Under 151
*CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION*
We do think Kansas win but doesn’t cover, and our ultimate prediction is that Kansas will beat Duke in the Championship. This would be the ideal scenario for humanity.
If Villanova gets past Duke, fuggetaboutit. Duke wins. Barf.
MLB SEASON BETS
We know baseball isn’t everyone’s favorite sport. It can be a very boring game, in a very long season. The best way to take an interest in the MLB (if you don’t already) is throwing some future bets in and having an investment that lasts you from April - October. Let the Degenerate guide you.
BRANDONS BEST BETS
Season Totals:
Mariners OVER 84.5 — One angle I like to play with a win total is finding a team that ended the previous year with some success. Whether it’s winning a bowl game, the NIT tournament, or a win streak. Something to get you momentum heading into the offseason. Enter the Seattle Mariners. The M’s were 49-43 in July, and ended with a 90-72 record. They went 20-10 down the stretch and beat the brakes off their division rival, Oakland. The M’s added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to lead their rotation. They also scooped up Adam Frazier and stud outfielder Jesse Winker. Both guys batted at or around .300 last year.
Braves UNDER 90.5 — Another somewhat system play for me that you may or may not agree with, but I like to play the championship hangover angle. The Braves finally got the monkey off their back, and did it in the most surprising fashion. Atlanta lost arguably the best player in baseball (Ronald Acuna Jr) to injury. Ozuna acted like a moron and got himself arrested. Then in the WS, they lost Charlie Morton to injury. Didn’t matter. We were on the Braves last year and it quite honestly might be one of our better hits in recent memory. Sadly, we now fade. They’re a fun team to root for, but losing Freddie Freeman and Joc should set them back a bit.
Brewers OVER 88.5 — This team is so much fun. I compare them to the 2022 Memphis Grizzlies (watch them if you haven’t). Everyone likes each other, and they’re loaded with talent. The problem with Milwaukee is they can’t win a fucking playoff game. Since 2018, they lost the play in game against the Nationals, and then were swept by the Dodgers and Braves. All 3 of those teams eventually won the WS. Sick stuff. This year, it all changes. The Brew get the last laugh.
Player Futures:
Kris Bryant HR LEADER 40/1 — Might seem a bit public here, but I’m buying it. Bryant is now with the Rockies in what even the most casual baseball fan knows is one of if not THE best hitters park in all of baseball. I love how Bryant contributed to the Giants last year when he was traded. He signed a 7 year deal with Colorado, and I think he shows up early for them.
Luke Voit HR LEADER 70/1 — Voit left the Yanks and is now with the Padres. Frankly, I just love this guy. He’s intimidating as hell in the box. Big beefcake. I think he’s got a chip on his shoulder, and love the value here.
Wander Franco AL MVP 15/1 — Get familiar. Wander is the future of baseball. The Rays are the smartest organization maybe in all of sports. They’ve got an eye for talent, and wisely locked up Wander to an 11 year contract.
Christian Yelich NL MVP 23/1 — It wasn’t the best year for Yelich. He batted .248 and only hit 9 HR’s. Given how high I am on the Brewers, I also expect a big bounce back season from Christian.
World Series:
Rays 13/1 — Hand up - I am a Rays fan. But this bet comes with zero bias. I was on the Rays two years ago at 30/1 when they lost to the Dodgers. Vegas has taken notice, and you won’t be getting that good of a number on this team anytime soon. They are LOADED with defense and hitting. The one concern is their pitching. Cy Young candidate Tyler Glassnow is coming off Tommy John, so not sure if or when he will return, but they did sign Corey Kluber to add a vet and some depth. The Rays also still have Randy Arozorena cheap, and that won’t last for much longer, as he’ll probably be traded next year. So this year has got to be the year for Tampa.
Brewers 17/1 — Scroll up - love this team. Solid hitting, solid pitching, and finally ready to get over the hump that is winless playoff series. I know the Dodgers are fucking loaded and will probably make it out of the NL, but that’s no fun. If anyone is going to slay that dragon, it’s going to be the Brew Crew.
GREGS BEST BETS
Season Totals:
White Sox UNDER 91.5 — The White Sox are a favorite in terms of public and sharps to win the AL. I’m certainly not here to tell you that it’s impossible or improbable, but I am here to tell you I’m fading their win total. This team has the talent, and they’re getting the experience to make a real post season run, but my reason for fading has nothing to do with that. This team won the Division last year and is primed to take it home again. So why short their win total, Greg? Here’s why – every single other team in this division has made some big moves in the offseason. Now, every team in the division is expected to be under .500, just as they were last year. However, the added star power to their division mates and the target on their backs makes this team a season total fade for me. The Royals got Greinke. The Tigers got Javy Baez. The Twins got Carlos Correa. The Indians Guardians will be terrible, but they have Jose Ramirez and a respectable pitching staff. This Cleveland team is giving me vibes of the Atlanta Braves last year where a mediocre regular season (for them) could lead to some October magic.
Marlins OVER 76.5 — The addition of Jorge Soler from the Braves, and a Gold Glove winning catcher from the Pirates aren’t exactly the kind of signings that are turning heads. But they add stability and consistency, and we aren’t talking about a team that’s going to win the World Series, or even the NL East. Miami is building the right way and have some serious pitching that should show real signs of maturity. Sandy Alancantara can be a real stud and this team is headed in the right direction, even if no fans are there to see it.
Phillies to win NL East +400 — Brandon’s short the Braves, and I don’t disagree with the World Series hangover outlook. The Met’s have an absurd rotation, but no one gets red hot in April/May and ice cold in August quite like the New York Mets. Simply a value play here.
Player Futures:
Bo Bichette - Lead league in RBI’s 40/1 — Everyone and their grandmother are on the Blue Jays this year. Seems too easy and our contrarian brain won’t let us jump on the bandwagon. But this team should be the real deal, and you’re going to want something to cheer for on their squad if they are.
Jarren Duran - AL ROY 45/1 — Bit of a long shot, but if Jackie Bradley Jr. can’t hit (safe bet) he could work himself into the everyday lineup sooner rather than later. Worth the dart
Oneil Cruz - NL ROY 5/2 — Homer alert! I’m a Pirates fan, literally nothing to cheer for this year. But this guy the favorite by a long shot, on one of the worst teams in baseball. This kind of respect from Vegas is too tough to pass up.
World Series:
Padres 11/1 — This was everyone’s sexy young team last year and they drastically undelivered. Now it’s a new year, they added a few nice arms to the staff, and there is zero buzz around ‘em. Full disclosure, I’m with Brandon on the Brewers above too. But something about this Padres team keeps reeling me in. Yes, Fernando Tatis is injured, but he’ll be back in a few months. If Yu Darvish and Blake Snell can find their old magic, this team can be a real problem.
Yankees 9/1 — If you loved our Duke pick wait till you read this! The main reason for this is Anthony Rizzo. Impossible not to love this guy, and he could be the key to unlocking this lineup of absurd potential. Pitching staff is deep and they should finally be getting a healthy Luis Severino to pair with Gerrit Cole as the ace. Similar to Coach K, if something this gross happens it softens the blow with a modest wager.