The glorious betting month of April gets started this weekend. Final Four on Saturday, and then we kickoff Masters week with the National Championship Monday.
Whether you’ve had an up or down betting month in March, you most certainly are a little bummed at the lack of “madness” from the NCAA Tournament. The only bright side to that is we now get the four best teams battling it out for the top spot.
It feels quite difficult to cap these games - especially when you’re not elite ball knowers - but we did take in a lot of basketball the past few weeks. We’re not going to analyze much of anything outside what our eyes have told us and lean into “basketball brain” plays for the last three games.
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Florida vs Auburn
This is a perfect example of why I think Conference Tournaments are pointless. Two juggernauts in the SEC meeting in the Final Four. If Auburn wins, do you think Florida hangs their hat on the fact that they won the SEC Tournament? Doubtful.
I think Auburn has played this all to perfection. Throughout the entire season, all we heard was “Duke/Auburn vs The Field.” After essentially locking up an overall one seed in February, Auburn sleep walked to end the season - losing to a very average Texas A&M team on the road and on senior night against Alabama. Then an early exit in the SEC Tournament with a loss to Tennessee. Thus, shifting the spotlight from them to Florida - your friends new darling bracket winner.
These teams met once in the season with Florida winning 90-81. The total in that game was 156.6 and it soared over. Steak and Greg both like points in the rematch, and I think I agree. Florida has either come out slow (UConn) or gotten punched in the mouth (Texas Tech) in 2 of its last 3 games. They even let Maryland hang around for a bit too long. I expect a complete game from the Gators against a familiar opponent where they won’t have to jab-jab and feel them out.
Auburn has won and covered its last three games. They were in control against Michigan State, but things got scary when Broome got hurt. We’re not doctors and can’t speculate on the injury status. I think Auburns guards will have to step up and put on a much better performance than they did against Michigan State. I understand Sparty had the best perimeter defense in the nation, but they relied heavily on Broome to do it all that game. I think Florida has the size to make life much more difficult in the paint. We expect both the Gators and Auburn to come out fast and the winner is decided by offense, not defense.
The Pick: OVER 159
Duke vs Houston
Despite the Kenpom rankings, neither of us have been that high on Houston all year. I chalk it up to Kelvin Sampson fatigue. The experts and smart people will tell you that this Houston team has their typical stellar defense but is now also equipped with a potent offense.
It’s not that I don’t respect him as a coach, because I do. Sampson has taken Houston to the Final Four twice in the last four years. I’ve just fallen for the Houston bait too many times, only to see them go on a scoring drought and not keep up with the top teams in the biggest games. However, they did have their scare against Purdue, and that game may have awoken the sleeping giant. What they did to Tennessee the following game (allowed 14 points in the 1H) was a borderline felony.
If I’m Duke, I am well aware that you’re going to be in a 40 minute dog fight with the meanest dogs in the country. Yet…I still am not intimidated. When I watch Duke, I see zero flaws. Every single guy can step up and make a play when needed, and they all play incredible defense. If this was a Duke team with Jeremy Roach or Filipowski, I’d say that Houston wins by 20+. But I don’t sense any “soft” in the Blue Devils.
This is legitimately the best Duke team I think I have ever seen in my 37 years of existence. I’m a Duke hater, and as much as I’d like to hate them, it’s very difficult when Cooper Flagg’s parents are talking shit in the stands and guys like Kon Knueppel are balling.
I am by no means saying it’s going to be easy, but I am saying that we all love Duke to not only cover this number, but likely win the game by double digits. Gulp!
The Pick: Duke -4.5