FOOTBALL IS BACK! (almost)
NFL Futures - AFC North & AFC West
Opening kickoff is within sight. You can smell it and almost taste it. The excitement is palpable. Fantasy football draft plans are made and College Football Saturday’s are on the calendar. Glory!
If you’re an OG, then welcome back to The Degenerate Newsletter. If you’re a new subscriber, welcome aboard.
When the season gets going, we send our favorite NFL and NCAAF bets every Friday morning. By “we” I mean your favorite three idiots: Degen, Greg and Steak. Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X if you don’t already. Till then, we’ll be previewing every NFL division and NCAAF conferences. You’ll get our thoughts and favorite future bets.
Tonight’s the Hall of Fame game, which means we get super excited for a few minutes and then bored with preseason football, all before the end of the 1st quarter. If you haven’t already, now is the time to cram in your last minute research. Let’s get after it!
Oh, and if you’re going to a game this year be sure to get your tickets using SeatGeak promo code “DEGEN” for $20 off your first order.
AFC North:
Divisions played: AFC West, NFC East
Odds to win division:
Baltimore Ravens +140
Cincinnati Bengals +165
Cleveland Browns +480
Pittsburgh Steelers +750
Baltimore Ravens
2023 Record: 13-4
2023 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +950
Last year was Offensive Coordinator (OC) Todd Monken’s first year with the Ravens. He led them to the #1 overall seed in the AFC and got Lamar Jackson his 2nd MVP award. Very excited to see what he does in year two. But, before we get carried away, let’s look at what happened when former OC Greg Roman took over the offense in 2019. The Ravens were the #1 seed in the AFC and Lamar Jackson won his first MVP. Interesting! Roman was unable to recapture the year one magic and was ultimately let go in search of someone who could. Will Monken’s success continue, or will he fizzle after a red hot year one? We tend to think a step backwards is looming. Less to do with coaching, more to do with the roster.
Derrick Henry is the new lead back in Baltimore. Washed up? Probably not (but maybe a little). Baltimore lost three starters on their O-line which makes everyone’s life more difficult. Outside of Zay Flowers, the WR room is one of the worst in the league. Rashod Bateman has proven to be everyones favorite fantasy football sleeper that keeps sleeping. Nelson Agholor is other option. Woof. The good news is Mark Andrews should be healthy and ready to start the season, and Isiah Likely is back.
As long as you have Lamar Jackson, Andrews, and a competent running game, the Ravens are a very tough team to fade. Here’s some great insight from Warren Sharp on the potential of the Henry/Jackson combo:
“Defenses loaded the box against Henry and Tennessee last year at the #1 highest rate. Lamar Jackson was the best QB in the NFL against 7+ man boxes”
The big change is former Defensive Coordinator (DC) Mike Macdonald leaving to become the new HC in Seattle, taking the Ravens DB coach and DL Coach with him. They also lost Patrick Queen (LB). Struggling out of the gate is likely based on turnover of leadership on D and strength of schedule. Doesn’t help Baltimore that they start the season with an AFC Championship rematch against the Chiefs in Kansas City. Then they go non-stop against a top 5 schedule till week 14 when they get their BYE. In season adjustments on the Defensive side will be tough to come by when you’re in dog fight for almost the entire season.
You could say we are indirectly fading them by investing in another AFC North team…
Best Bet:
Derrick Henry UNDER 975.5 rushing yards (Steak)
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 9-8
2024 Win Total: 10.5
SB Odds: +1400
The Bengals 2023 pre-season started with a Joe Burrow calf injury which really derailed the hype train. They rushed him back and started 1-3. Then they won 4 of 5 before a wrist injury ended Burrows season. Despite turning the team over to Jake Browning, Cincy finished with a winning record and almost crept into the playoffs. No small feat - especially when you consider having the toughest schedule in 2023, facing 11 Playoff teams and 14 teams over .500 (per Warren Sharp).
It was likely the execution with Browning that earned former OC Brian Callahan the Head Coaching job with the Tennessee Titans. Quarterbacks Coach Dan Pitcher was promoted to run the offense, although it sounds like HC Zac Taylor will call the plays.
Joe Mixon left, but at this point in his career he’s replaceable. Zack Moss and Chase Brown will look to provide enough of a 1-2 punch to take some of the pressure off Burrows shoulders. The bigger losses are on the defensive side of the ball in DJ Reader (DL) and Chidobe Aquize (CB). We here at The Degenerate are big fans of DC Lou Anarumo. The guy is simply one of the best at making in-game adjustments, and we think he’ll continue to find a way to to succeed after losing some talent.
The Bengals also play some fairly weak opponents. Four of the first six games: Patriots, Commanders, Giants and Panthers. Perfect for tuning up before facing a few divisional opponents.
We’re buying Burrow. He’s proven to be the only QB who can take down Mahomes, and that says a lot. The Bengals get one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and will look to capitalize. Degen is also buying Zack Moss. He should be the Bengals goal-line/redzone back, and held his own early last season with Indy before JT got right.
Best Bets:
Bengals OVER 10.5 Wins (-134)
Bengals AFC North (+165)
Bengals SB (+1500) - Steak
Zack Moss OVER 6 Rushing TDs (+100) - Degen
Cleveland Browns
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
The injury bug bit the Browns hard on both sides of the ball, specifically at O-line, but nothing hurt more than losing Nick Chubb. Then there was the merry-go-round of donkeys at the QB position with DWat, DTR, and PJ Walker. Only to eventually find success with Comeback Player of the year Joe Flacco.
Despite having a top defense, we feel that a lot of this teams success will come down to Deshaun Watson and if he still cares about being an elite QB, or if he was ruined by the money. This year he’s getting $64M - the most cap space dedicated to a QB in NFL history. Last year when he wasn’t hurt, his stats and production were comparable to Trevor Semian (per Sharp). Ken Dorsey comes in as the OC and it’s not clear yet who will call plays, but the reason for this move is calculated and certainly worth noting based on his past ability to work with mobile QBs. Not a bad resume:
2015 Cam Newton (MVP)
2020 Josh Allen (2nd in MVP voting)
2024 Deshaun Watson (Probably sucks)
The difference here, in our opinion at least, is that early in their career Newton and Allen were young and highly motivated. Two major factors appearing to work against Deshaun Watson.
Tin Foil Hat Time: The Browns hired Mike Vrable as a consultant. He’s an Ohio guy. Does it seem a bit odd considering a two time Coach of the Year is coming in to be a consultant? Smells fishy - maybe (pure speculation) Cleveland is building a contingency plan in case they decide to move on from Stefanski in the future.
There’s a lot of pressure on Deshaun Watson to live up to the paycheck. Parlay that with the brutal schedule Cleveland plays, and being in arguably the toughest division in football, we simply have to fade.
Best Bets:
Browns to Miss Playoffs (-175) - Degen
Browns to finish 4th in AFC North
Browns UNDER 8.5 Wins (+112)
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Record:10-7
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +5000
Mike Tomlin never ceases to amaze us. 17 years coaching, 0 losing seasons. The downside to never having a down year is that you don’t have the draft capital to get a high profile rookie QB. Hell, the last time the Steelers had a top 5 draft pick they took Terry Bradshaw in 1970. Now this certainly distracts us all from how long it’s been since the Steelers won a playoff game, but you get the sense ownership is doing everything they can to change that this year. This offseason is different - they went out and made some low risk bets and waved goodbye to the entire QB room from 2023. Hello, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. This is a far cry from the answer to anyone’s prayers (other than Russ), but it’s a big improvement.
The other story on offense is Matt Canada is gone. No matter how bad you think he was…he was worse. In his tenure, the Steelers were the WORST in the NFL in: yards per drive, points per game, points per minute of possession, 1st downs on 1st down, pre-snap motion, and they led the league in 3 and outs. Fun! But, lets keep going. They trailed in the 4th quarter for 34 straight games. Their first 26 drives of 2023 led to one red zone trip. Insane. Pittsburgh was 1-15 if they allowed more than 22 points. If the offense can be average, this team has potential.
Author Smith comes in, and I get it - under normal circumstances this isn’t too exciting, but in the aftermath of Matt Canada, Steelers fans should be ecstatic. As the OC in Tennessee he got Tannehill to the AFC Championship. Not to mention, they won two road playoff games where Tannehill completed less than 8 passes.
Smith was great under a strong leader in Mike Vrable, and could return to form with Tomlin. Justin Fields isn’t expected to start, but you can be sure they get creative with him in the red zone.
Down the home stretch for the Steelers, as with the rest of the North, the schedule is a monster. HBO’s Hard Knocks is going to focus on the entire AFC North starting December 3rd. As such, Pittsburgh plays all 6 division games plus the Chiefs and Eagles over the last 2 months of the year. Never before has a team played all their division games after week 11. Absolutely brutal.
Offensive line was the focus of their draft and you can see the commitment to running the ball. The biggest weakness last year (besides Patrick Peterson) was at the linebacker unit where the Steelers suffered tons of injuries. In to fix that problem is Patrick Queen and 3rd rounder Payton Wilson.
If you’re looking to bet against the Steelers, just remember - Tomlin went 8-8 with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph. He just got to the Playoffs with Pickett, Mason, and Mitch. Fader beware.
Best Bet:
Najee yards OVER 800.5 (-110) - Greg
Jaylen Warren OVER 4.5 Rushing TDs (-130) - Degen
Pat Friermuth OVER 50.5 Receptions (-115) - Degen
AFC West
Divisions Played: AFC North, NFC South
Odds to win division:
Kansas City Chiefs -230
Los Angeles Chargers +350
Las Vegas Raiders +900
Denver Broncos +2000
Denver Broncos
2023 Record: 8-9
2024 Win Total: 5.5
SB Odds: +18000
The Russell Wilson era is over. The Broncos can begin healing. The 2 year experiment was a complete and total disaster. Denver cut their losses and moved on. Now, Bo Nix comes in to lay the groundwork of a new foundation, but they still have bills to pay in the form of an $85 Million cap hit over the next two years. On paper, Russ wasn’t terrible last year. The stat nerds loved him, Degen hated him. But the defense was historically bad. Remember when they gave up 70 points to the Dolphins? SEVENTY! Over the 2023 season the Broncos D allowed almost 6 yards per carry, which was the worst since 2000 (Warren Sharp). You can blame Russ, but the problems ran deeper. It’s looking like the Broncos leveraged their future for a Super Bowl window that Russ slammed shut.
Bo Nix MIGHT be the guy. His skill set aligns perfectly with what Sean Payton did with Drew Brees, but spending 5 years as a college starter raises some red flags.
Broncos fans will tell you that Sean Payton’s worst season ever is 7 wins, but with a tough schedule in 2024, that could change. At least the healing process has begun.
Best Bets:
Broncos Under 5.5 Wins (-120)
Box Nix Reg Season Rookie INT Leader (+350) - Greg
Kansas City Chiefs
2023 Record: 11-6
2024 Win Total: 11.5
SB Odds: +600
Greg liked the Chiefs last year and decided the best way to play them was to take their over wins total at 11.5. They won the division, the AFC, and the Super Bowl. They did not go over their win total. Pat on the back for his worst future wager of the 2023.
Prior to their Super Bowl run, Kansas City went 4-4 to end the season. The Quarterbacks they beat: Aiden O’Connel, Bailey Zappe, Jake Browning, and Easton Stick. Next they blew out the Dolphins, then they went on the road to beat the Bills and Ravens as an underdog before winning the Super Bowl. Again, as a dog. Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes are building a dynasty that might compete with Belichick/Brady. Six straight AFC Championships, and three Super Bowls in five years.
The biggest issue in 2023 was the WR position. So naturally, #1 WR Rashee Rice created some offseason drama by getting involved in a hit and run accident. It’s unclear how, or if, the accident might impact his 2024 season, but the Chiefs added Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy prior to the incident. They also bulked up at the TE position, as Kelce is another year older and with newfound Taylor Swift fame, he might be joining his brother in retirement soon.
With another easy schedule in a weak AFC West, the Chiefs will look to add another SB trophy. The biggest question in the AFC is who, if anyone, can stop them.
Best Bet:
No bets
Las Vegas Raiders
2023 Record: 8-9
2024 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +10000
Another year, another fired coach for the Raiders. If it feels like this happens to the Raiders every year, it’s because they do it damn near every year.
Antonio Pierce steps in as their 13th head coach since 2002. But this time, it might actually be different. Pierce more than proved himself going 5-4 in his stint as the interm HC, but more importantly he earned the players respect.
Luke Getsy from the Bears comes on as OC and he get an interesting arsenal of weapons, but ultimately is lacking too much at the QB position to be overly excited. No clear sign yet if Aiden O’Connell or Gardner Minshew will lead the way, but no matter what, your ceiling of QB play is going to be below average. Getsy has a history with Devante Adams from their days in Green Bay, and the two headed TE monster of Michael Mayer and first round pick Brock Bowers could be very entertaining.
The defense lacks talent overall, but played above their means last year under Pierce. They did lose some big pieces, but gained DL Christian Wilkins who will play next to Maxx Crosby. Mad Maxx was an animal last year and with another stud on his side he should be poised to repeat that dominant performance.
The Antonio Pierce hire can go two ways. On the high side, he could be the next Dan Campbell. On the low side, he could be the next Raiders coach to be fired in under 3 seasons. Degen is going for his lick back after unsuccessfully fading the Raiders last year, but Greg is only buying into Crosby.
Best Bet:
Maxx Crosby DPOY (+700) - Greg
Raiders UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110) - Degen
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Record: 5-12
2024 Win Total: 8.5
SB Odds: +4000
Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL after finally taking Michigan to the promise land. Joining him is an experienced offensive coordinator in Greg Roman, who was with Jim in the SF days, and most recently his brother in Baltimore.
Brandon Staley made an unbelievable mess out of a ton of talent and now it’s time to right the ship. It’s going to be fun to see what Harbaugh can do with Herbert, but we expect it to take some time, as they will be without Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. They might have the worst WR unit in the NFL, but we love us some Ladd McConkey (2nd round UGA).
You can take the coach out of the Big 10, but you might not be able to take the Big 10 out of the coach. Drafting Joe Alt and signing both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins should make it obvious that this team is going to be focused around the run. Herbert will need all the help he can get since he’s forced to throw to Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson.
The defense lost a ton of pieces, especially in their Front 7, but Staley could never do anything with them anyway. If you are looking for a strong Coach of the Year candidate, Jim might be your guy. Our eyes are elsewhere, but Harbaugh checks a lot of boxes at +800. The Chargers ended with 5 wins and as bad as things might look from a roster perspective, he has a quality QB. There’s a path to make the playoffs in a weak AFC West with an easy schedule.
Best Bet:
Ladd McConkey MOST rookie receiving yards +850
Next week we’ll be back with previews and best bets in the NFC North & West. Newsletters will move to hitting your inbox every Friday morning.
RECAP
AFC North Bets
Derrick Henry yards UNDER 925.5 (Steak)
Bengals OVER 10.5 Wins (-135) - Steak & Greg
Bengals AFC North
Bengals SB (+1500) - Steak
Zack Moss OVER 5.5 Rushing TDs (Degen)
Browns to Miss Playoffs (-190) (Degen)
Browns to finish 4th in AFC North
Browns win total UNDER 8.5 (+112) - Steak
Najee yards OVER 800.5 (Greg)
Jaylen Warren OVER 4.5 Rushing TDs (-130) - Degen
Pat Friermuth OVER 50.5 Receptions (Degen)
AFC West Bets
Broncos Under 5.5 Wins (-120)
Maxx Crosby DPOY (+700) - Greg
Ladd McConkey MOST rookie receiving yards (+850) - Steak
Raiders UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110) - Degen