Football Wonderland
NFL Week 16 & College Football Playoff Round One
Hey now! Hey now!
This is what dreams are made of!
What a week of football we have ahead of us:
College Football Playoff kicks off today.
Mother of all Saturdays with (3) more playoff games and (2) monster NFL matchups.
Full slate of NFL Sunday.
We also get a lovely couple on Christmas Day games only to roll into Thursday Night Football. Then we do it all over again.
If that’s not a Christmas Miracle we don’t know what is.
New Merch is now available!
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 33-36-1 (-16.46 Units)
CFB: 53-32-1 (+16.57 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 16
Progress is progress and a winning week is a winning week. Let’s see if we can get Greg’s ass out of the igloo and really start to chip away at the hole we’ve dug ourselves into in the NFL.
Seven teams have clinched a playoff spot. Seven more remain. A lot of tough matchups so we’re keeping the card tight.
One of the final full slates of the year, cherish it!
Steelers at Ravens -6.5 Total 44.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 8-6-1
I know you’re probably not keeping count, but you bet your ass I am. That is now a 7-0-1 run in best bets. 8 weeks without a loser, and my credibility as an NFL ball knower slowly gets restored. I told you I was nervous at how much I loved last weeks play, well I’ve got some different feelings about this one. I’m getting cute. I haven’t gotten cute in a while. I might regret it, I might not. Either way, call me Betty Boop and let’s ride.
The initial lean was the Colts. Then it was the Ravens. Then it was the Colts again. Now I’m back to the Ravens. I am in my head. I started to really hone in on what I liked about both sides this weekend, and what kept coming to me above all else was the Steelers defense. I want to fade them. Walk with me…
You may or may not recall, but I hammered the Browns TT under on the TNF game against Pittsburgh a few weeks back. Our buddy and Steelers fan Freddie Mills warned me that was a bad idea. He noted the Steelers just grinded out a tough 18-10 win against the Ravens in what was a very physical game, and he was worried the defense was in a bad spot on a short week. He was right. I watched that game, and the Browns moved the ball well. That was something I put on my mental notepad. The Steelers then beat the Bengals but allowed them to score 38 points. Following week they got their revenge against the Browns, but Cleveland STILL moved the ball with 300 yards of offense and 20 first downs. Again, I was paying attention. Then came last week in Philly. Smart guys Freddie and NotMidMajorMatt both loved the Eagles. I couldn’t do it, as I feared fading Tomlin as an underdog. The Eagles not only won and covered, but the offense put up 400 yards of offense and 26 first downs.
You pick up what I’m putting down? And I haven’t even touched on TJ Watt being injured and potentially missing this game. To be honest, that doesn’t matter all that much in terms of what I like about this bet. With or without the DPOY, this defense is GASSED.
It was well known going into the season that Pittsburgh had one of the hardest 8 game stretches in the history of the NFL. They played 4 division games in a row, then a visit to Philly, now another trip to Baltimore before playing KC and Cincy. They did exactly what they needed to do in terms of taking advantage of the first half of their schedule with wins against teams they needed to beat. Now the expected is happening. This team is facing some adversity and wearing down. I don’t care who they’re playing - I want to attack the Steelers defense with any opposing teams offense. That offense just so happens to be the Baltimore Ravens in a revenge spot at home after a tune up game against the Giants.
The Pick: Ravens Team Total Over 25.5 (-115) - Fanduel
Texans at Chiefs -3.5 Total 41.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-10
Mahomes’ training staff has to be the best in the NFL. Last year he played on an injured ankle all the way to the Super Bowl. Now, immediately following another ankle injury, he’s ready to go on short notice.
Just because Mahomes is playing doesn’t mean he’s 100%, but the Chiefs are only a couple of wins away from clinching the first round BYE. You have to respect him coming out to get it done, and then take a breather before their inevitable postseason push. But Andy Reid is wise and I think with Pacheco back the Chiefs lean heavily on the run game.
Coming out of their BYE the Texans D looked great and forced some huge turnovers against the dying Dolphins. Texans OC Bobby Slowik is starting to catch some heat. The guy refuses to change his game plan and is leaning on a run game that is slowing down. Maybe that changes, but it probably doesn’t.
Both these teams have clinched a Playoff spot, they are very likely to finish in the #1 and #4 seed. The schedule has them both playing again in big games on Christmas Day. I don’t expect either to lay down, but I do expect a very conservative game plan that is run heavy from both sides.
For the love of god let me break out of the slump with a strong THUNDER UNDER!
The Pick: UNDER 42.5 (-115)
Rams at Jets +3 Total (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-10
Steak was the first one in line to say the Jets suck. When the early struggles started everyone thought it was growing pains. But not Steak. He knew. He called the spade a spade and avoided the Jets in the “sharp” spot for months.
But now… ohhh right now? Now is the time. The Jets are eliminated which only makes sense for them to go on a run and build the hype for 2025. What if they got it together sooner, what if Zuerlein didn’t suck, what if Hasson Reddick didn’t sit out, what if they got Davante Adams sooner? Sick of it yet? Just wait till March.
The Rams are traveling cross country to play in 25 degree weather at Metlife. Not the best situation for pretty boy LA. Especially after sweeping the 49ers, something McVay has never achieved and the Rams haven’t done in over a decade.
With the Rams feeling themselves and heading to the northeast against a dead Jets team is where Steak strikes!
The Pick: Jets +3 (-110) DK
Titans at Colts -4.5 Total 42.5
The Will Levis era is over.
More memes than wins can work for Twitter cappers, but not NFL QB’s. Mason is back at QB and who the fuck wants to fade Rudolph four days before Christmas?
We do.
Mason already had his shot and it did not go well. Now the Titans are grasping at straws trying to build some type of momentum going into 2025.
But the Colt’s aren’t dead yet, and we do not see Shane Steichen laying down just because they need a lot of help down the stretch. This defense is playing significantly better and Jonathan Taylor should play like a man possessed after making the biggest boneheaded play of his career. Dropping the ball inches before crossing the goal line and completely changing the momentum as they were dominating the Broncos last week. Don’t care if it’s square - Colts bounce back.
The Pick: Colts -3.5 (-110) Fanduel
Bowl Season
You can rewatch Steak and Degens though on every CFB Playoff game here:
Gasparilla Bowl
Tulane at Florida -10.5 Total 49.5
Word on the street is DJ Lagway, Florida’s new shiny toy at QB, is going to play this game. Spoiler alert: he may be our Heisman pick in 2025 (+1100), but we’re fading him and the Gators today.
Remember what we told you in last weeks newsletter: A) betting on bowl games nowadays is a bitch and B) the most important thing to cap is motivation. In retrospect, we got burned on Cal against UNLV. Despite Cal being the “worse” team on paper given their record, they’re still a bigger brand and in a power 5 conference. That was a meaningful game and bowl win for UNLV. That’s how we feel about Tulane. They’re 9-4 vs the Gators 7-5 record, but they still would likely want to add a win against an SEC opponent to their resume, especially after losing their Conference Championship game. Not to mention, we think the Gators are excited for 2025 and have their eyes set on what they can achieve for next season. We think the goal here should be let Lagway loose for a bit, but prioritize his health for next season.
The Pick: Tulane +10.5 (-105)
Indiana at Notre Dame -7 Total 52
You may or may not already know that I (Degen) am a die-hard Notre Dame fan. Not one that thinks they deserve their AP preseason ranking or that they can win the National Championship every year. Very down to earth and realistic. With that said, it’s hard not to admit that this is a pretty fucking good football team.
We’ve bet on ND a few times in the newsletter, and please correct me if I’m wrong, but I think we hit every single time. Maybe 6-0 if i’m not mistaken. Anyways, I am sad to report that both Steak and I agree strongly on this play…it’s the Hoosiers.
I think you should go listen to my pitch on this game from Wednesdays Board Review. You can rewatch on YouTube (1:27 mark) above or listen on The Board Review podcast.
The Pick: Indiana +7
SMU vs Penn State -8.5 Total 54
I thought coming into this week that SMU may have been the least trendiest dog on the board. Although, I’m not totally sure anyone is in love with Penn State or James Franklin winning a playoff game. What I am certain of is that Drew Allars stock has never been higher after that performance against Oregon. Despite losing 45-37, we think PSU does deserve some credit for battling back and going pound for pound with arguably the best team in the nation.
SMU came out sluggish against Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but made a rally late to tie it although they fell just short in a 34-31 lost. So here is where our heads are at - both teams just played in high scoring games, we think people are in love with PSU offense, and nobody really respects SMU’s defense. How about a nasty under? Sign us up.
The Pick: Under 54 (-110)
Clemson at Texas -12 Total 51.5
Steak and I have bet on Clemson in back to back seasons. Last year it was to win the ACC (they didn’t) and this year it was over 9.5 wins (they ended with 9). We’re sick of Clemson. Sick of Dabo. Sick of pretending Cade Klubnik is good.
We think this gets ugly. To be totally transparent - Steak doesn’t even think Texas is all that good, as he even bet on Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
My takeaway from that Georgia was that I’m really not sure where I stand with QB Quinn Ewers. If I was Texas, I’d probably be playing Manning a whole lot more. But it’s clear they’re sticking with Quinn, so I’ll tell you one positive takeaway and that is he has a very pretty deep ball. Coming off that loss and hosting a CFB playoff game against Clemson, we think this is an absolute smash spot for Texas. I’m even doubling down with the team total as we think Texas offense will score in the 40’s. The defense is a very solid unit, and we don’t respect Clemsons offense at all. They scored 14 at home against South Carolina, and 24 on the road at Pitt and Va Tech. Hook em!
The Pick: Texas -12 & Texas TT O 31.5
Tennessee at Ohio State-7.5 Total 46
Steak and I are going our separate ways here.
I get it, I really do. Ohio State just had their worst loss maybe ever. The stock on them is low. Tennessee feels like they might be the trendiest dog of the weekend. The books are even giving you the hook. But I do not care. I can’t bet on Ryan Day. Steak can.
Instead, what I like in this game is points. People keep talking about the weather and how Tennessee will hold up in it. I personally think they’ll be just fine, but remember we aren’t weathermen. What I’m leaning into is a bounce-back game from Will Howard and the Buckeyes offense. I’ve watched Tennessee and do respect their D, but think that Ohio State would be foolish to try and establish a run game. They should utilize their stud WR core and open it up after neglecting it against Michigan. On the flip side, I love the fact that Vols coach Josh Heupel has extra time to prepare for this game. QB Nico has been up and down this year, but in this game they really have no reason not to open up the entire playbook and throw the kitchen sink at Ohio State.
The Pick: Ohio State -7.5 (Steak) & OVER 46 (Degen)
RECAP:
NFL
Ravens TTO 25.5 (-115) - Fanduel- Degen’s Best Bet
Chiefs/Texans UNDER 42.5 (-115) - Greg’s Best Bet
Jets +3 (-110) DK - Steak’s Best Bet
Colts -3.5 (-110) Fanduel
CFB
Tulane +10.5 (-110)
Indiana +7 (-110)
SMU/PSU UNDER 54.5 (-110)
Texas -12 (-110) & Texas TT O 31.5 (-115)
Ohio State- 7.5 (Steak) & Over 46.5 (Degen)