Full Speed Ahead
NFL Week 1 & College Football Week 2
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls…
HERE! WE! GO!
272 games. That’s it. It’s not much, but it’s our everything for the next 4.5 months.
Thank you all for subscribing! We just cracked the 2,000 mark and are very excited for you to join us in year 4.
Last year we had our first losing record in college, but were still positive in NFL. Regression was due after a strong first two years. Now it’s time to get back in the green.
Quick note on formatting/tracking:
In years past everything has been 1 unit plays, but this year we decided to up the ante on our best bets and make them 2 unit plays.
We’ll also be tracking our individual record so we can see who gets the crown at the end of the season. Loser will have to do some sort of miserable challenge that we haven’t though of yet…
Also - if you’re going to any games this weekend, be sure to use promo code “DEGEN” for $20 off your first purchase with SeatGeek.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 0-0
CFB: 2-1 (+.82 Units)
NFL WEEK 1
As excited as we are for NFL to kickoff, it’s important not to go too crazy. Here’s a great PSA:
So for us it’s dipping a toe in, testing the waters, trying to reassess and fine tune our pre-season thoughts. Then we can start to take some more swings once the season ramps up.
Packers at Eagles -2 Total 49.5 (Degen’s Best Bet)
Brazil is an interesting choice to put the second game of the NFL season. Nevertheless, it’s where my first best bet occurs.
The Green Bay Packers are a team I went all in on last season. They were my largest future wager - having 3 units on the over 7.5 wins. It hit, but I can’t take a victory lap, because it wasn’t exactly for the reasons I had laid out in the newsletter. As much as I was a believer in Jordan Love (had his over TD passes) and this offense (had Matt LaFluer COY), what I really bought into was the defense. I liked the personnel, but what I didn’t realize is how fucking terrible DC Joe Barry was. Well, he’s gone, so that’s already a huge addition by subtraction for this team in 2024.
Green Bay also returns all their wide receivers and added RB Josh Jacobs. This is one of the youngest and most exciting teams in the NFL. I respect the way they ended last season, and the potential success they COULD achieve this season. But…I’m out.
There’s an old investment strategy that says you should buy low and sell high. I bought the Packers low, and now I want to sell them high. I know we reference Warren Sharps book a lot, and if it’s annoying…tough shit. I think it’s one of the best sources of data out there and the only 400+ page book worth reading. What it stated was how well the Packers offense ended the season. After a 2-5 start, the Packers made adjustments and were #1 in just about every offensive scoring category. The most impressive by far was that they were scoring touchdowns 95% of the time in goal-to-go situations. That is absurd. Sharp also points out that along with all these positives, comes a negative, and that negative is there is no way these numbers hold up. I agree. Regression is looming for this team, and I think it hits even harder now that Jordan Love just became the highest paid player in NFL history.
The Eagles defense is not exactly the side I want my 2 units to go to war with in week 1…but their offense is. I think the pendulum swung hard in opposite directions for Philly. In 2022 they were beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl with two stellar coordinators in Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. Then down the stretch in 2023 their absence was felt, and they were arguably one of the most pathetic teams in the NFL. The Eagles hired Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. I think their competency will lead this team to find their footing and be a force in the NFC.
What I’m most excited about is the addition of Saquon Barkley. I think this is one of the most talented offensive players in my lifetime that was stuck in one of the most dog shit situations, and is ready to let loose with a fresh start. The Giants offensive lines were terrible. Despite Jason Kelce retiring, the Eagles still have 3 pro bowlers upfront. Not to mention the threat of running with Jalen Hurts, and an incredible WR duo with AJ Brown and Devontae Smith.
I think we see a very exciting back and forth game, with the Eagles offense outlasting the Packers. Something like birds 37-27 feels right.
The Pick: Eagles -2 (-110)
Texans at Colts +3 Total 48.5 (Greg’s Best Bet)
Greek Mythology comes to Houston, Texas.
The legend of Icarus.
Icarus ignored Daedalus's instructions not to fly too close to the sun, causing the beeswax in his wings to melt. Icarus fell from the sky, plunged into the sea, and drowned.
Last year the Texans exceeded everyone’s wildest dreams: winning the AFC South (+1000, you’re welcome) and a playoff game. Now, they add super-stars a plenty. Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Danielle Hunter, and a few other legit starters on defense.
But it feels like the Texans rushed the process and risked spoiling the culture by bringing in a bunch of vets too soon. Joe Mixon has always had offseason issues and now he’s another year older. Stefon Diggs was such a problem for Buffalo they took a +$30M contract hit to get rid of him. This should be CJ Stroud’s team to lead, but now the young QB will have to manage some big ego’s and much higher expectations while having a massive target on his back.
In Week 18 last year, the Colts infamously failed to convert on a 4th and short against the Texans, costing themselves the game and the division title. They’ve had the offseason to plan their revenge and get healthy.
When we start to see these type of graphics float around it tells us it’s time to buck the trend.
The Texans biggest weakness is against the run and the Jonathan Taylor + Anthony Richardson combo are primed to exploit it. If Indy can establish the run, they can limit Stroud’s damage on the other side of the ball. It’s early in the season where home divisional dogs thrive.
Divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%) in Week 1 since 2009 (Win: +16.4 units, ROI: 56.5%, Grade 75) - VSIN
So give me the Colts with almost a FG, and I’ll probably sprinkle the ML as well.
The Pick: Colts +3 (-115) - Draftkings
Steelers at Falcons -3.5 Total 42.5 (Steak’s Best Bet)
We’ve heard a lot about the Steelers horrid QB situation and not much about the rest of the team. A pretty darn good, top tier, defense and respectable running game should lead Steelers to more wins than people are expecting this year.
The Atlanta Falcons apparently don’t even need to play the season. According to the betting public, they’re 100% winning the AFC South and probably 75% winning the Super Bowl. Why? Oh because Drake London and his ZERO 1,000 yards season and Kyle Pitts with his SIX career TD’s are guaranteed to become super stars. With Kirk Cousins and his ONE playoff win running the show. The brakes need to be pumped.
Arthur Smith looking for some revenge against the team that fired him in the offseason. Steak thinks the Atlanta hype has gotten out of control, and they’re in for a rude awakening early.
The Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-115)
Cowboys at Browns -2.5 Total 40.5
There is zero love for the Cowboys this year. The talent is there, but they’ve have three straight 12-win seasons and nothing to show for it come the postseason.
They’re at the doorstep of making a Super Bowl run. They should be doing everything they can to take the next step, and yet Jerry Jones elected to do nothing in the offseason. The biggest knock from Cowboys haters is that they are incredibly thin. Which is tough to argue against, but for now the starters are strong enough to carry the team. A few injuries and the conversation changes.
But this is Week 1, baby! If you’re gonna bet the Cowboys do it early.
We think an offseason of pessimism gives way to some optimism for Dallas. Both offenses have plenty of questions and concerns. Both defenses should continue to dominate. Expect plenty of ugly football in this one. And what a better place the the American Capital of Ugly: Cleveland, Ohio.
The Pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-110)
Come on Over, Over: Panthers at Saints OVER 41.5 (-110)
The last two years have started with a ton of Unders.
This year the NFL changed the kickoff rules and added the hip-drop tackle penalty. Both of which should bode in favor of higher scoring games, and we want to lean into it early.
These offenses get a makeover at the play caller position: Canales comes to Carolina and Kubiak comes in as OC in Nola.
Absolutely nothing about this game should signal the over with Derek Carr vs. Bryce Young in an early divisional matchup, and yet the line keeps inching up. You can call it steam chasing or you can call it being contrarian - we don’t care.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2
Army at FAU -3.5 (-115)
We take it very easy in Week 0 and Week 1, but I still couldn’t help myself with a 2 unit play that was an unsuccessful fade of FAU. I thought the Owls would have a tough time producing any offense in East Lansing, which I was sort of right about. They benefited from 12 Michigan St penalties and 3 turnovers, and lost 16-10.
If Tom Herman and FAU are going to be a decent team this year, I’m going to pay to find out early. They host a military school in their home opener, where I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate to benefit from sloppy play. Army just joined the AAC and I think they want to make a statement in their first game. Not to mention the triple option is a nightmare to prepare for. Especially after FAU spent most of the offseason with high hopes of making a statement against their early Big Ten opponent.
I’ve got more thoughts on this game and will be posting a video later today on Twitter/X (@thedegenweekly). Be sure to follow me for an in depth breakdown of why I’ll be on Army for 2 units as my best bet.
The Pick: Army +3.5 (-105)
Marshall at Virginia Tech -20.5 (-110)
This is a Steak special, and a Steak special just cashed last weekend with SMU.
People were high on VT this offseason. Mostly because they returned a lot of starters, but people also liked QB Kyren Drones. Neither Steak or I had any interest in joining, and were happy we laid off after they lost as 14 point favorites on the road against Vanderbilt to open the season.
Similar to the SMU read, Steak is going back to a team with a large spread that just burned bettors by not covering on the road. Simple as that…we hope!
The Pick: Virginia Tech -20.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -2 (-110) - Draftkings
Pitt just had themselves a nice opener, beating Kent St 55-24. Meanwhile Cinci struggled a bit against lowly Towson only winning 38-20. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi is likely coaching for his job, so there’s not surprise his team came out swinging. They can’t afford to play any games and perhaps not show opponents the playbook, which is exactly what (we think) Cinci just did. The total at 62 seems VERY telling we see offense, but in this matchup we think it’s from the Bearcats.
The Pick: Cincinnati -2 (-110)
Baylor at Utah -14.5 (-110)
This one is all Steak. I’m personally out on fading Utah because I respect the shit out of Kyle Wittingham, but Steak says he will be looking to fade them early and often this year. He’s not buying Cameron Rising and he’s not fearing the home field advantage.
The Pick: Baylor +14.5 (-110)
Iowa St at Iowa -3.5 (+100) - BetMGM
I’m high on Iowa St this year, and I’m low on Iowa. Last year it was the total opposite, but I’ve been sold on the Cyclones being sneaky competitive after they returned a ton of starters from a team that faced a lot of adversity last year (gambling suspensions and covid). Iowa just scored 33 points and the party has already started. I’m here for the Kirk Ferentz farewell tour to start after this weekend.
The Pick: Iowa St +3.5 (-120)
South Florida at Alabama -30.5 (-115) - Fanduel
You probably already know that I’m extremely high on Jalen Milroe as he’s my single bullet 2 unit heisman pick. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’m high on the Tide this year overall, but I do like them in this spot. Last year Bama went to USF and struggled to come out with a victory. The Bulls gave them hell and lost 17-3, but that kind of set the tone for their season. USF finished 6-6 and went on to win a bowl game. Huge success for a small school with no expectations. But now coach Alex Goresh and USF will not be taken lightly by most opponents, including Alabama.
The Pick: Alabama -30.5 (-115)
Texas Tech at Washington St -2.5 Total 65.6
Both of these teams just combined for 100+ points in each of their week 1 games. There is absolutely no way we can’t get involved in this under. It feels right, it feels gross, it feels degenerate.
The Pick: Under 65.5 (-105)
RECAP:
NFL
Eagles -2 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Colts +2.5 (+100) - Greg’s Best Bet
Steelers +3.5 (-115) - Steak’s Best Bet
Cowboys +2.5 (-110)
Panthers Saints Over 41.5 (-110)
CFB
Army +3.5 (-105)
Virginia Tech -20.5 (-110)
Cincinnati -2 (-110)
Baylor +14.5 (-110)
Iowa St +3.5 (-120)
Alabama -30.5 (-115)
Texas Tech/Wash St UNDER 65.5 (-105)