Step by step, week by week
Same old story: Fantastic Saturday, Losing Sunday
The NFL continues to be our kryptonite. Came in at 1-2 with Best Bets. We’ll spare you the bitching and moaning. Instead we’ll just brag about going 3-1 in College. Yay!
Hitting the home stretch of the College Football season. With only a few Saturdays left, we decided to lean into the hot streak and add a few more plays than usual. Here’s to finding continued success there, but for the love of god - can we get a winning week in the NFL?!?
Steak was unavailable so we tapped in Matt for this weeks Players Only Meeting. If you want to hear us discuss every game on the NFL Week 11 board, you can find The Board Review Podcast on Apple and Spotify.
Also, join us every Sunday morning at 9am EST for Prop Talk with Steak and Style. You can find these on our YouTube Page.
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 20-25 (-15.48 Units)
CFB: 38-19-1 (+16.09 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 10
One day… one sweet Sunday… it’s coming… it’s close…
It has to be, right?
Falcons at Saints +3.5 Total 46.5 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 3-6
It doesn’t get more rock bottom than the current state of the New Orleans Saints.
Feels like just yesterday we were parading Klint Kubiaks offense up and down Bourbon Street after the Saints started 2-0 on the season and the offense scored 91 points. Then came a tough loss to the Eagles at home, and everything started to unravel as they got bit by the injury bug. The Saints went into Atlanta in Week 4 without their starting Center and a few other key pieces. Taysum Hill got hurt midgame after scoring 2 touchdowns. The Saints still somehow almost pulled out a win, but lost on a last second field goal by the Koo. Since then, there haven’t been many bright spots, and now it’s as dark as it can possibly be after losing to the 1-7 Carolina Panthers in historic fashion.
The Saints did something they should have done years ago and fired Dennis Allen. If you’ve followed us for a while, you know we love betting on a team after they fire their coach. This “system” is 0-1 on the year after the Jets failed to cover the following game from firing Robert Saleh. To be honest, I stayed off that game, because it felt to me like the Jets issues ran way deeper than just the HC. But I’m jumping in now.
Atlanta has seemed fraudulent to me at times. I’ve said it on the stream and I’ve even made a video about it after the Falcons luckily beat my beloved Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have had a tough start to the year, no doubt, but have also been fortunate to pull off some of their victories. I don’t think they are as good as their 6-3 record may indicate. They’ve also only been on the road three times this season. In comparison, the Saints have five. Very comfortable start for Kirk in Atlanta.
One big takeaway that I have is that despite the loss to the Panthers, the offense still performed well. Alvin Kamara just signed a two year contract extension, and looks like he’s out to prove he’s worth every dollar. Again, all this despite being on a dogshit team. Dare I say that loss to Carolina is the best thing that could have happened to the Saints? Ding Dong the Witch is dead, and in comes Mister Rizz, who the players are already jazzed up about. The SuperDome is about to be rocking harder than it ever has for a 2-7 football team.
The Pick: Saints +3.5 (-105)
Giants at Panthers +6.5 Total 40.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-4
If you thought the London Games were bad, just look at this stinking bowl of goulash we’re sending to Munich. Two of the worst teams in the NFL coming in at a combined 4-14. You’re Willkommen!
I’ll get right to the point: I have concerns about Daniel Jones. Plenty of concerns. I am incredibly nervous betting on him - not only to win, but to win with margin. But I believe in a team effort from the Giants. You would have to assume Brian Daboll’s days in New York are numbered. I personally am a big fan of his, but I don't think he can withstand back to back seasons with 10+ losses.
I truly believe this team is bought in, and despite their record, they haven’t quit yet.
Even though Danny Dimes is part of the package, my real reason for betting the Giants this week is Daboll, the defensive line, and the Panthers feeling themselves after the first Bryce Young win of the season.
I think laying near a touchdown isn’t necessarily about putting respect on the Giants, it’s about putting disrespect on the Panthers. Granted, they pulled off a big win last week, but the issues are significantly deeper than what appears to be a massive bust of a #1 pick last year. The defense is nothing close to what it’s been in the past.
I still cannot wrap my mind around how the Panthers won last week. In addition to the stat line below, the Saints won the turnover battle.
Daboll knows the path to victory is to control the ball and pressure the hell out of Young. I love newcomer Tyrone Tracy Jr. and will likely get involved on Daniel Jones rushing yards.
The Panthers just won the lottery pulling out that win, and I don’t see them being as lucky in Germany.
The Pick: Giants -6.5 (-105) FD
Patriots at Bears -6 Total 38.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 2-7
Since their BYE two weeks ago, the Bears have gone from sneaky playoff team to this team has quit and they need to fire the coach. Gotta love the NFL.
Last week was an embarrassing loss, but Steak says they were still experiencing a hangover from the backbreaking hail mary in Washington.
Steak’s been a big Caleb guy from the jump, and a little bit of growing pains isn’t going to derail that. The Bears are 4-0 at home, and they are primed for a get right game as the D get healthier.
The Pick: Bears -6 (-110) BetMGM
Dolphins at Rams -1.5 Total 50
Tua showed some heart last week in Buffalo. Shame on us (Greg) for fading him after he got the rust off in his first game back. The Dolphins season feels as though it’s slipped away right as the Rams appear to be saving theirs. We say NOT SO FAST!
After a 1-4 start, the Rams are 4-4 and looking to make a run at a Wildcard spot or even the Division. They’ve found their footing after some injuries, but we still aren’t buying the defense. The Dolphins should be well equipped to attack the weak secondary with Tyreek and Waddle.
The concern, and it's a big one - is that Jared Verse might literally murder Tua if he gets a clean shot. But with a healthy stable of running backs we think they can keep the pass rush guessing and let the offense pop off. If this isn’t the Reek Masterclass game, then there will never be one.
The Pick: Dolphins +1.5 (-120) FD
AHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH-AHH UNDA!
Broncos at Chiefs Total 42 (-110) DK
The Chiefs love to play down to their opponents when they have a big spread. Back to back weeks they failed to cover against the Raiders and Bucs. Maybe that changes this week, maybe it doesn’t.
What we do like is to see this Chiefs D shut down Bo Nix. Brutal spot for Denver having back-to-back road games at Baltimore then KC. Mahomes will continue to do just enough to win and we don’t see either team putting up an offensive show.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11
You can rewatch the stream with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
FRIDAY NIGHT BONUS BET:
Cal at Wake Forest +7.5
At this point you probably know how we roll in terms of not betting on teams off a BYE week. It bit us in the ass last with Clemson as they just lost outright. We don’t think it benefits college kids with as much of an advantage as the public thinks. In this matchup, we’ve got both teams coming off a BYE. You’d think we would lean into the under here, which is what we thought at first. But the more we look at Cal laying 7 on the road, we think it’s a lot of respect from the oddsmakers for the Golden Bears. That tells us their defense, which is certainly the best unit on the field, is what shows up in this game, and we think Cal can do enough offensively to cover the number.
The Pick: Cal -7.5 (-110)
Syracuse at Boston College -1.5
Here we go again being a bit hypocritical and betting on a team coming off a BYE, but this one is hard to resist. Purely a line read. We think this may appear as a the “wrong team favored” in the eye of the average bettor. Syracuse is 6-2 and just beat Virginia Tech, meanwhile BC is 4-4 and losers of 3 straight games. I personally think the Kyle McCord hype faded after that ass whooping in Pitt. Sure they put up 38 and beat Virginia Tech after trailing 21-3, but Tech was also without their starting QB and RB. I think Boston College QB Tommy Castellanos has a masterclass at home in an attempt to snap the 3 game losing streak, and the Eagles ground game is too much for the Syracuse defense which is by no means stout against the run.
The Pick: Boston College ML (-120) - Draftkings
Texas St at LA-Monroe +8
The last time Texas State played football, they burned the sharps as a -4.5 favorite, losing outright to Louisiana-Lafayette. The last time they played a road game, they lost outright at Old Dominion as a 10.5 point favorite. Now they’re laying 8 on the road against LA-Monroe? Seems like a lot of respect. Monroe is 4-0 at home SU and ATS. I’d imagine they will be a trendy home dog, and we like fading those.
The Pick: Texas St -8 (-110)
Miami at Georgia Tech +11.5
If you got lucky with a Miami -20.5 cover last week against Duke, let’s clap it up. We jumped on them late and faded the Manny Diaz revenge game narrative. This Hurricanes defense made Malik Murphy look like a Heisman contender in the 1H. It’s not a fluke either – this Hurricanes team has been playing with fire. If they continue to do it, they’re going to get burned. We think this is a bad spot for the Canes after a pretty tough 5 game stretch. Starting with primetime home game against Va Tech (which they almost lost), then cross country trip to Cal (which they almost lost), then a huge ACC game at Louisville. The most recent two opponents (FSU and Duke) aren’t the most difficult, but one is still a Rival and the other had a former coach who you knew would bring it. The Canes just feel like a team that’s due to get burned, and we think it’s right before their second BYE week in Ga Tech.
The Pick: Georgia Tech +11.5 (-115)
Georgia at Ole Miss +2.5
After that beatdown of the Longhorns in Texas, I thought this Georgia team was ready to finish the season in full out “fuck you” mode. I wanted to take them agains the Gators, but didn’t out of respect for Jovan. I’m glad I stayed off because the Dawgs didn’t cover the 14.5. If not for Floridas QB getting hurt, I’m not totally convinced Georgia wouldn’t have suffered its second loss of the season. Despite Beck throwing 3 interceptions, the Dawgs woke up in second half and pulled away.
This bet on Georgia may be square, but we don’t care. Leaning into a bit of Steaks read from the off-season that this Ole Miss team doesn’t live up to the hype. I also like what Steak said on Wednesdays stream that Lane Kiffin might be the SEC’s James Franklin in that he just can’t win the big games. I like Lane, but that makes too much damn sense. Go Dawgs.
The Pick: Georgia -2.5 (-115) - Draftkings
Oklahoma at Missouri +2.5
I’m going to make this short and sweet. The Sooners aren’t very good, but Missouri’s starting QB this week is projected to be former ND transfer Drew Pyne. As a Notre Dame fan let me tell you…this guy STINKS. He saw some action last week and threw 3 interceptions. Add into that Oklahoma is starving for some SEC wins. I think the Sooner defense comes in and has a field day. Buying good news with the Brady Cook injury which is a little uncharacteristic, but don’t care. Pyne should stay on the pine.
The Pick: Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) - Fanduel
Virginia at Pitt -7.5
We successfully fade Pitt last week at SMU. That was purely a line read as we could not believe SMU was laying -7.5. Insane respect from the oddsmakers. Looking at it more closely, Pitt hadn’t really been tested on the road much. Now they are back at home and looking for a bounce back. We think they get it. Virginia had a nice 4-1 start, but has lost 3 straight. Granted two of them were to L’Ville and Clemson, but the UNC loss was ugly. Now we get to do something we’ve back talking about not doing in most of our bets this week - fade a team off a BYE.
The Pick: Pitt -7.5 (-105) - Draftkings
RECAP:
NFL
Saints +3.5 (-105) - Degen’s Best Bet
Giants -6.5 (-105) - Greg’s Best Bet
Bears -6 (-110) - Steak’s Best Bet
Dolphins +1.5 (-120) - FD
Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 42 (-110) - DK
CFB
Cal -7.5 (+100) - FD
Boston College ML (-120) - DK
Texas St -8
Georgia Tech +11.5 (-110)
Georgia -2.5 (-115) - DK
Oklahoma -2.5 (-125) - Fanduel
Pitt -7.5 (-105) - DK