In the Hunt
NFL Week 14 & College Football Conference Championships
The NFL Playoff is picture emerging
College Football Playoffs are upon us
Playoffs?! Yes, they are right around the corner. The Bills, Chiefs, and Lions (late edit) have clinched and several other teams will look to join the party this weekend.
The matchups for the 12-team CFB Playoff will be known by early next week when the final rankings come out.
Glorious time for football all around, and maybe, just maybe, our year long bloodbath in the NFL is coming to an end.
IF YOU’RE GOING TO ANY GAMES THIS WEEKEND BE SURE TO USE PROMO CODE “DEGEN” FOR $20 OFF YOUR FIRST PURCHASE WITH SEATGEEK
Current Record YTD:
NFL: 28-33-1 (-17.82 Units)
CFB: 52-30-1 (+17.66 Units)
Reminder for tracking purposes: our Best Bets are 2 units (risk)
NFL WEEK 14
Coming off a 3-2 week may not feel like much, but securing profit is a big morale boost after the start we’ve had. Hopefully an indicator that we’re finally reading the board well. Felt like the right read with the Falcons, Kirk Cousins just blew it (4 INTs) and the Bucs Panthers needed OT to spoil our Thunder Under.
This weeks board is TOUGH. We thought about scaling back, but fuck it. By no means are we “hot”, but we’re leaning into two consecutive winning weeks.
Leggo!
Bears at Niners -4 Total 44 (Degen’s Best Bet) YTD: 6-6-1
The San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl window might be closing faster than anyone expected. They've had their chances, but it sure seemed like they’d be able to get a few more shots after trading for CMC. Unfortunately for Shanahan and Lynch, the injury bug continues to bite.
San Fran is coming off 3 straight losses in which they’ve only managed to score 17, 10 and 10 points. Not something you’re used to seeing with Shanahan’s offense - no matter who’s on the roster. Back-to-back games at Green Bay and Buffalo in the cold certainly didn’t help.
Meanwhile the Chicago Bears just did something they haven’t done in franchise history - fire their head coach midseason. Matt Eberflus is officially gone just a few weeks after OC Luke Getsy got canned. Changes were needed, and changers were made. Kudos, although rumors are that GM Ryan Poles wanted him gone last year. The people of Chicago deserve better! But I digress…
We had high hopes for Caleb Williams as I’m sure most football fans did. The nail painting never phased us. We thought and still think Caleb is going to be a stud. He was coming into one of the best situations we’ve ever seen a #1 pick for their rookie season, but it hasn’t gone according to plan. The Bears have suffered some tough losses, but that’s no excuse for how underwhelming this offense has been.
Chicago came out of their BYE week and scored a combined 29 points the next 3 games. Gross. Then they played two divisional opponents and started slow. Somehow they put up a miraculous comeback against both the Vikings and Lions, but ultimately fell short. We think it’s safe to say that in those games Calebs play improved, which should give Bears fans hope. Now they should have a bump in play from the ole “fired coach system” that we’ve been keen on. It seemed pretty obvious the players weren’t buying into anything Eberflus was selling. Ding dong the witch is dead!
With the Niners being at their lowest of lows in recent memory, I think it would be foolish to fade them. Remember: we buy low. Instead, I think we get a better offensive performance from both sides. The Bears found something late in the 2H on Thanksgiving in Detroit that I think they can build on, and the Niners will be in desperation mode back home playing in conditions they’re more accustomed to.
The Pick: Over 44 (-110)
Seahawks at Cardinals -2.5 (Greg’s Best Bet) YTD: 5-8
It’s no secret that I’m in a dark place. I came out red hot on my best bets and I’ve been ice cold since early October. But this is it - get right spot that I need like oxygen.
I’ve been on the Cardinals since the jump. Win total and a sprinkle to win the NFC West at +1300. Their win total can cash this weekend, and no other game on the board has bigger playoff implications. Winner is in the drivers seat, loser going to be in for a month long grind to grab a Wildcard spot. In dark times, I have to go to my first love.
“You've got to dance with the one that brought you
And you can't go wrong” - Shania Twain
The Seahawks are riding a three game win streak out of their BYE, as new coach Mike Macdonald appears to have fixed the problems on defense over the break. These teams faced off in a rainy game two weeks ago and neither had much to show on offense. The deciding factor was a Kyler pick six that tipped the scales in Seattle’s favor.
To open the 2024 season the Seahawks went on a 3-0 run then fell apart. Out of the BYE they are 3-0, so I’m betting on history repeating itself.
Kyler at home is a much different QB against the Seahawks than on the road.
Arizona out of their BYE has been the exact opposite as Seattle. Back to back losses, but the defense has looked very impressive. I think Kyler and co can get the offense back on track at home and in the NFC West drivers seat.
The Pick: Cardinals -2.5 (-110) Fan Duel
Browns at Steelers -6.5 (Steak’s Best Bet) YTD: 4-9
The Steelers have beaten the Ravens. The Steelers have beaten the Bengals.
Steak says it would only be fitting if they went 0-2 against the Browns. If for no other reason than NFL football is poetry. And Jameis Winston is Bobby fucking Frost.
After a shootout in the snow it would only be appropriate for this one to be a vintage low scoring slugfest.
Give Steak the mistake on the lake.
The Pick: Browns +6.5 (-105) - Fanduel
Bengals at Cowboys +5.5
Dead. Dead. Dead. The Bengals are dead.
If you had a crystal ball and could look at Joe Burrow’s stats at the beginning of the season, you would assume he was a frontrunner for MVP.
The man is leading the league in yards and touchdowns with only 5 ints. The problem is Cincinnati’s defense. It has been atrocious and every bad break has gone against them.
This offseason could lead to a coaching overhaul, but the Bengals aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, and with the Broncos on a BYE they will still have everything to play for in Primetime. We think the AFC North is ripe for drama with the Hard Knocks premier and there is no better place to start than a little bit of mojo in Cincinnati.
The Cowboys are coming off back to back divisional wins. Now at home on primetime, this feels like a perfect opportunity to fade Cooper Rush just as a little bit of Playoff hope is starting to take hold in Dallas.
The Pick: Bengals -5.5 (-110) DK
Come on Over, Over: Falcons at Vikings Over 45.5 (-110) DK
After coming out red hot, Sam Darnold and the Vikings offense has been stalling, but they have still been able to grind out wins.
Kirk is coming off his worst game of the season (and possibly career) with FOUR interceptions, one them being returned for a TD. Maybe Kirk is injured, as the Penix rumors are flying, or maybe he was looking ahead to a bit of revenge.
We just can’t get to the window with a Falcons ticket this weekend, but we certainly think sparks fly in Minneapolis as both teams are scratching and clawing to stay relevant in their respective divisional races.
Conference Championship Weekend
You can get thoughts on every game with Degen, Steak and Jovan here:
WKU vs Jacksonville State -5 Total 57.5
These two teams just played in the final week of the regular season. WKU closed as a short home favorite and won 19-17 on a late 50 yard field goal. The total in their first meeting last week was 62. We’ll spare you the math - it soared under.
This was an ugly game for Jacksonville State offensively. In fact, it was only the second time all season they failed to score 20+ points. After an 0-3 start to the season, Jax St ripped off 8 straight wins and averaged 42 points during that stretch. Not only did they put up their second lowest point total of the season at WKU last week, they also only picked up 13 first downs the entire game. Just dreadful.
I can’t sit here and pretend to give a logical explanation as to why that happened. Is it because WKU’s defense is stout? I mean they gave up 38 to Liberty the week before, so I’d lean towards no.
Maybe it was nerves due to the magnitude of the game and playing on the road. We aren’t going to sit here and dissect what went wrong, but rather we are willing to wager on both teams shake off the lackluster performance and bounce back with some scoring in the second matchup. Significant adjustment on the total now. We’ll buy low.
The Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)
UNLV vs Boise State -4
Have you seen a playoff projection with UNLV in it? Or a playoff bracket without Boise State in it? Didn’t think so. To that, we say NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!
The winner of this game likely makes it into the playoff, whereas the loser will play Cal in the LA Bowl. Hello pressure, my old friend.
It’s been a while since we’ve played a revenge narrative, but that’s exactly what we’re doing. These teams played five games ago in Las Vegas - it was a back and forth battle. Boise pulled out a 29-24 win, but UNLV held the best RB in the country, Ashton Jeanty, to his worst performance of the season. Hilarious that 128 yards and 1 TD is considered bad, but that’s just how good Jeanty has been. The Rebels D limited him to just 3.9 yards per carry which was by far his lowest all season.
I’ve always been told Boise, Idaho is one of the best kept secrets in America. After the famous Statue of Liberty play and now Ashton Jeanty, they are far from a secret in College Footballs first every playoff. Given the adversity UNLV has fought through with it’s QB and RB leaving the program early in the season, we think it would be a pretty damn cool story for this team to make some noise.
Call it Cinderella or call it spoiler - we think chaos is coming.
The Pick: UNLV +4 (-110)
Iowa St vs Arizona St -2.5
Everyone thought the Big 12 was dead after Oklahoma and Texas left for the SEC. Kenny Dillingham and Matt Campbell said NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! (that’s the last time we’re using that I promise).
Dare we say this might be low-key be the game of the weekend? Georgia/Texas of course is must watch but they’e already played. Oregon/Penn State should be good and I’m hoping for an upset, but it’s still James Franklin. How about this matchup of two teams that brought it every single week. Also, shoutout Jovan for the read on Iowa State in the offseason preview. I ended up getting their on the over 7.5 win total due to his read and all the returning starters they had.
The Degen Fam is going against the sharps here. Looks like the line opened Cyclones -1, but smart money has pushed ASU from a dog to a fav. Not something we typically love going against, but we’ve got a feeling Rocco Becht is going to shine in what many people are expecting to be the Cam Skattebo show.
The Pick: Iowa St +2.5 (-120)
RECAP:
NFL
Bears/Niners OVER 44 (-110) - Degen’s Best Bet
Cardinals -2.5 (-110) - Greg’s Best Bet
Browns +6.5 (-105) - Steak’s Best Bet
Bengals -5.5 (-110)
Vikings Falcons OVER 45.5 (-110) - Draftkings
CFB
WKU/Jacksonville St OVER 57.5 (-110)
UNLV +4.5 (-110)
Iowa St +2.5 (-120) - Fanduel