Starting tomorrow at high noon an onslaught of games will be coming our way virtually non-stop till Sunday evening. Ladies and Gentlemen… This! Is! March!
Right now our brackets are perfect and pure. A teeny tiny part of us actually believes it will stay that way. We’ll be the first to ever do it. A perfect bracket - the world will look on in wonder - Then it’s 5pm on Thursday. Oakland just upset Kentucky. You’re in a world of hurt and we still got 25+ games this weekend. Just remember - there is absolutely no where else you’d rather be. Cherish it. Gambling weekends like this are what it’s all about. Control your units, have some fun, take some swings, and relish in the glory that is March Madness.
This weekend is too action packed and full of surprises to try and list all our plays in the newsletter.
If you want to day to day and game by game updates, the best way is Twitter (@thedegenweekly; @steaakfriend, @gogo__dino).
You can also find our breakdowns live on Twitch and YouTube.
This week we will be breaking things down on a Region by Region basis. Letting you know our favorite 1st round bets, some sleepers and our (subject to change) Final Four.
South Region
If you are looking for a region to take some swings, this is it! Houston and Marquette are coming off blowout losses. Duke and Wisconsin have underperformed all year. Kentucky is all gas, no breaks.
Best Bets:
Nebraska -1 (Degen)- This felt like the wrong team was favored. I know Nebraska is the higher seed, but to open up as a 3 point favorite on a neutral against a Texas A&M team people respect shocked me. Sharps are hammering the Aggies and I can’t blame them, but I have to be brave and go with my gut.
Oakland +13.5 (Dino)- In a battle of all gas vs. heavy breaks I’m taking the breaks. I like Oakland to throw off the Wildcats rhythm and give them a game.
Texas Tech -5.5 (Degen)- NC State is fresh off one of the more improbably tournament runs busting through the ACC knocking off Duke and UNC. The Cinderella run is over before it begins.
Vermont +12 (Dino) - I hate everything about Duke, but this team is especially awful. Let’s see a Vermont team send them home early in the post Coach K era.
Favorite sleeper:
Nebraska (Degen) - I’m all in on the Huskers this March. Love how they ended the season winning 6/7 with the only loss being to a revamped Ohio St team. Also played Illinois tough in the Conf Tourney. Tominaga SZN! (+1800)
Wisconsin (Steak) - After a subpar regular season the Badgers made some real noise and almost won the Big 10. They’re not done yet! (+1500)
Vermont (Dino) - Digging deep on a team that’s unlikely to make it to the weekend. It starts with beating Duke! (+10000)
Region Winner:
Duke (Degen) - I hate that I’m typing this, but I can totally see Duke making a run after an early exit from the ACC Tournament. (+550)
Duke (Steak) - The Blue Devils finished the year with a loss to UNC at home and then losing as a double digit favorites to NC State in the ACC tournament. Steak says buy low. (+650)
Marquette (Dino) - Got blown out to a powerhouse in UConn, but Houston is a big favorite in the south and Marquette can make a run. (+550)
East Region
Somehow the committee put the Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and SEC Champions all in the same bracket. Tough draw for a UConn team that is the #1 overall. Another region with value across the board, especially if you like to fade a team after winning their conference tournament win.
Best Bets:
FAU -2.5 (Degen)- I’m probably squaring up here, but it’s gotta be done. After their deep run last year, the Owls of FAU have been a disappointment. I say they just didn’t care much about the regular season. Now it’s time to HOOT HOOT.
Morehead State +11.5 (Dino)- There is no way around it, Illinois is on top of the world after winning the Big 10, look for the Eagles to come in and give them a run for their money.
Favorite Sleeper:
BYU (Degen) - Don’t listen to Greg. BYU is going to run Duquesne out of the gym. Their entire team can shoot, so if a few guys have off games, the others can pick up the slack. I think they’re a tough out and worth the shot. (+1500)
Yale (Steak) - Digging deep in his bag of tricks on this one. Yale to make the Sweet 16 +920
Duquesne (Dino) - I like them against BYU and I’ll sprinkle the ML. The Big 10 Champ (Illinois) is always a favorite fade for me. Not far fetched for them to make the Sweet 16, but I’m going to play it game by game.
Region Winner:
UConn (Degen) - It’s chalk, but it’s happening. They’re going to go full Scottie Scheffler and ruin the fun. (+105)
Iowa State (Steak) - D! Fence! (+400)
Iowa State (Dino) - Can’t quite put my finger on what it is that I love about this team, but I’ve watched them a good bit this year and they are just never out of a game. Taking them to go all the way too. (+400)
Midwest Region
Will Purdue fall to a 16 seed again? Will Rick Barnes and the Volunteers continue to struggle in March? Can the Ducks continue their Pac-12 magic? This one has a lot of intriguing story lines and a ton of potential for heartbreak.
Best Bets:
Akron +12.5 (Degen)- This is less about Akron and more about fading Creighton. Maybe I’m way off here, but they just don’t overly impress me. Hoping the Zips can make this a scrappy low scoring game.
Gonzaga -6 (Dino)- McNeese feels like the trendy dog here so I’m riding with Gonzaga.
Favorite Sleeper:
TCU (Degen)- I don’t respect Purdue, and I think the Frogs can get past Utah St. (+2500)
Kansas (Steak) - Injuries had this team reeling down the stretch, another buy low Steak special. Kansas Sweet 16 +118.
Gonzaga (Dino) - Idk if you can call Gonzaga and Kansas sleepers, but both offer good value in this region, especially when you consider Purdue’s history of upsets. (+750)
Region Winner:
Tennessee (Degen)- I have no data to back this up, but they’re a good team who got bounced early in their conf tourney perhaps with a chip on their shoulder. Checks a lot of my boxes. Maybe Rick Barnes won’t poop his pants for once? (+350)
Purdue (Steak) - Remember when Virginia lost to a 16-seed? The following year they won it all. Will Purdue follow that blueprint? Steak says yes. (+165)
Creighton (Dino) - They made an Elite Eight run last year and I like them to do it again.… maybe more! (+400)
West Region
It’s not often that you see a 2 seed with better odds across the board than the 1, but that’s just one of the many reasons we all align on an Arizona pick for this one.
Best Bets:
Miss St/MSU 1H U 60.5 (Degen)- A little cheeky bet I know, but you’re telling me the first game of the day isn’t going to have the tightest defense and the stiffest jumpsuits? Sparty stinks and Miss St has some dawgs on defense.
New Mexico -130 (Dino)- This team was a ton of fun to watch and I’m going to ride the wave. Also, I sneakily want to fade every ACC team this weekend.
Grand Canyon +5.5 (Dino) - I might be falling for a trendy dog here, but I love a good 12 over 5 upset. St. Mary’s has spent the last four years trying to beat out Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference Championship and they finally got it. Now, we pounce on the letdown.
Favorite Sleeper:
Clemson (Degen) - This is a weird choice because I like New Mexico to win round 1, but IF Clemson makes it past the Lobos, I think that means they have their A game…which is scary for everyone else. (+3500)
Alabama (Steak) - We say sleeper - Steak says stinker! Give him Bama -130 to MISS Sweet 16
New Mexico (Dino) - After winning the Big West last year SDSU went on a run to the Championship. Now, I think New Mexico can turn some heads, but they need to get past Clemson first. (+2200)
Region Winner:
Arizona (SQUAD RIDE) - We all have tickets in the +1000 to +1500 range. How perfect would a Caleb Love revenge game be against UNC in the Elite Eight?
We’ll be coming to you again next Thursday around this same time as the Sweet 16 kicks off, but before we go - here are a few notable future tickets we’re on to win the whole thing. Let’s see how many of these are alive next week.
Purdue +700 (Steak)
Arizona +1200 (SQUAD RIDE)
Marquette +3000 (Dino + Degen)
Iowa State +2500 (Dino)
Creighton +2500 (Dino)
Duke +2500 (Degen)
FAU +3500 (Degen)