"Letdown Spots" & Early Leans
Paid Subs Only
Hello and welcome to the 2nd ever “premium” midweek email to our paid subscribers! Just another reminder - nothing changes in terms of our weekly Friday morning email. We will always be sending our favorite picks with write ups for free every week, but now that we have people pledging money to support our work, we feel obligated to add a little more value.
Last week we talked about the “look ahead” spot in College Football. Prime examples of these were Florida State barely escaping Boston College with Clemson on deck, and Cincinnati totally slipping up and losing outright to Miami OH with Oklahoma now coming to town. Our favorite was BYU, who won outright as 8.5 point underdogs on the road against Arkansas. Motivation is very important when handicapping College Football, so targeting spots like this is something we really emphasize.
This week, we’ll start looking at some “letdown spots”. This means fading a team that just won a big game. A few letdown spots have already occurred this season, and we took advantage early as we played the under and Wyoming last week +28 against Texas after the Longhorns just beat Alabama.
This is the first time since 1990 we have 6 ranked matchups as early as week 4. That means we’ll certainly have a lot more letdown spots to target next week. For now, we’ve included a list of some potential candidates, as well as some other trends and information to keep up on in this young football season. We’re always open to feedback, so if there’s something you’d like to see us include in these emails then please let us know. Cheers!
LETDOWN SPOTS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4
The team IN the letdown spot is on the right with the spread, and the team they just beat is in parenthesis.
Bowling Green vs Ohio -13 (beat Iowa St)
Memphis at Missouri -6 (beat #15 Kansas St)
Central Michigan at South Alabama -15 (beat Oklahoma St)
Charlotte at Florida -28 (beat #11 Tennessee)
Kansas vs BYU +9 (beat Arkansas)
Texas Tech at West Virginia +6 (beat Pitt - rivalry game)