March Madness and Valspar Championship
This is March
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. A lot of people think Andy Williams wrote that song about Christmas…WRONG. It’s about these next few weeks in March. The stage is set, the spreads are out, and the pencils are sharpened. Greg and I are going to give you our favorite bets of the first round, along with two of our picks to win it all. If you’ve still got anything left in the tank - finish it off with Valspar for dessert.
Mid March is when everyone wants to become a contrarian. Even your average Joe is on the prowl for his upset pick in the first round. The oddsmakers know this. General MacArthur once said “live grenades and trendy upset picks - two things you do not want to be holding”. Now is the time when you must out-contrarian the contrarian.
Our strategy with brackets (assuming you do multiple) is to always have one chalk and one with some surprises. After analyzing the first round lines, it’s unfortunate that we feel this way, but expecting a lot of chalk early. Without further ado - lets get into it.
BRANDONS BEST BETS
#13 South Dakota St vs #4 Providence -2
In my opinion, this appears the be the trendiest upset of them all. SDSU is an impressive 30-4, and hasn’t lost a game since December. Yes, you read that correctly. They average 87 ppg and are posting 52% FG shooting. Both are ranked top 2 in the entire country. They seem legit, right? I’d be lying if I told you I watched one second of this team or could name a player. I can not. What I can do, however, is read the market and the public. SDSU is getting 65% of the bets. I believe what we have on our hands is an overreaction to Providence’s Big East tournament performance. The Friars were a public darling till this past week. Funny how quickly they all jump ship after 27 point loss to Creighton, am I right?! I think they’ll be regretting it.
The Pick: Providence ML -130
#10 Loyola-Chicago vs #7 Ohio St PK
Another reverse upset, as I call it. On paper the 7 seed beating the 10 seed should not qualify as an upset. However, when you factor in the spread and betting activity, that’s exactly what this is. Loyola is getting 68% of the bets, yet this lined opened Oh St as a +1.5 dog and now has them at a PK. This tells me the sharpest of sharps are hitting the Buckeyes bigly. Loyola-Chicago is a popular name for public bettors this time of year. Especially considering they got that old lady on the sidelines (forgot her name). All we think of with Ohio State is being upset last year to #15 Oral Roberts, and perhaps an early exit to Penn St in the Big 10 Tournament. Not much to like, and that’s why we like em.
The Pick: Ohio St PK
#9 Marquette vs #8 UNC -3.5
You may not find a more lopsided game being bet than this one right here. The public is still propping up UNC on a pedestal after destroying Duke in Coach K’s final home game. We too thank them for their service. The Tar Heels also finished the season strong going 8-2 in their last 10 games. But the problem here is this line is WAY too short. UNC is getting 83% of the bets and 92% of the money. Nobody and I mean nobody wants Marquette. Except us!
The Pick: Marquette +3.5
#11 Virginia Tech vs #6 Texas -1
I hate how much I love this bet. Mostly because I lost Texas on the ML as they blew an 18 point lead to TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. But also…Va Tech is kinda cool. They are your ACC Champs after taking down Duke as a 6 point underdog. They’re riding high heading into the big dance. Unfortunately, I think this line is short. The Hokies are currently getting all the betting attention. 74% of bets and 96% of the money. Often times we follow the money, but not when it’s this much of a liability to Vegas. They don’t keep the lights on by handing out freebies.
The Pick: Texas -1
GREGS BEST BETS
#10 Davidson vs. #7 Michigan State -1
Michigan State made just enough noise in the Big 10 Tourney to catch peoples eye. Making it to the semifinal round and then pulling off a miracle back door cover against Purdue. Everyone knows Tom Izzo and the gang is always a trendy pick come this time of year, regardless of how they looked in the regular season. Not on Davidson’s watch, I say! Public is leaning toward MSU, but the line ticked in Davidson’s favor from +1.5 to +1.
The Pick: Davidson +1
#9 Memphis vs. #8 Boise State +2.5
Ever since Penny Hardaway went on his rant back in January, we’ve been waiting to hammer this team in March. Just too perfect for that clip to reemerge should they start to get hot now. Boise State played three gritty games on their way to win the Mountain West, and we think they’ve hit their peak. Memphis got embarrassed by Houston for everyone to see on Sunday losing 53-71 in the AAC Championship. Buy low! Memphis has already moved from -1.5 to -2.5, jump on!
The Pick: Memphis ML -145
#14 Montana State vs. #3 Texas Tech -15
“If you’re gonna love a dog, find one no one else does.” - Air Bud 5. Welcome to the show, Montana State. Winning the Big Sky and making their first appearance to the big dance in 26 years. This is what dreams are made of! Texas Tech is on everyones radar as a quality team who can make a real run, and rightfully so. But they struggle when they’er away from home. More than struggle - during the regular season they were 18-1 at home and 5-7 away/neutral. Everyone is looking past the Bobcats in this one, which is why we love ‘em.
The Pick: Montana State + 15
#11 Iowa State vs. #6 LSU - 4
It damn near never happens, but we have a fired coach heading into the Tourney. Will Wade was released on Saturday and LSU now heads into the Tourney with an interim coach. Can’t say we watched much of him this season, but his performance against Arkansas in the SEC Tournament was enough to tell us his firing is a major upgrade. 69% of the bets are on the Cyclones and the line is moving in LSU’s favor. Geaux Tigers!
The Pick: LSU -4
CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS
Our preferred strategy is always taking a team in each region. Also, spread it out between 1-2 heavy favorites (like a Gonzaga or Arizona), 1-2 mid tier teams, and a long-shot. These are who we like:
Gonzaga +300 - Gonzaga’s undefeated run came up just short last year in the Championship vs. Baylor. If not last year then never, right? Wrong! If they blow it this year we are NEVER taking them again, but +300 tells us Vegas knows they take it home. This is giving us vibes of the ‘19 Virginia Championship team, who the previous year lost as a #1 seed to a #16 seed. Much less pressure for the Zags this year, and out for revenge.
Kentucky +850 — We personally do not think Kentucky is good enough to win it all. But clearly, the oddsmakers do. They’ve got the Wildcats having the third best odds. If you find yourself strongly disagreeing with Vegas’s model, then just accept that you’re probably wrong and make the necessary wager. That’s the sole reason we are taking Kentucky here.
Iowa +2500 — Forcing ourself onto the other side of the bracket, while trying not to load our basket with too many heavy favorites (Arizona being the one). We’ve landed on Iowa here at what we feel is a pretty good number. The Big 10 Champs showed they’ve got the offense to hang with anyone. Iowa has won 12 of their last 14 games, and both losses came by a combined 7 points. At 25/1 it’s hard to pass up a team that’s playing this well.
Colgate +15000 — If you follow us on Twitter, then you’d know we’ve been riding Colgate for well over a month. The gift that kept on giving. It seemed like they were covering spreads on a nightly basis. Out of respect, this is an auto-play for the Degenerate family as our long-shot. But make no mistake…they’re pretty damn good. Colgate opened as a 9.5 point dog against Wisconsin and is taking in a ton of money, as the line already moved down to 7.5 We hope that’s a good sign.
Valspar Championship
(The Snake Pit - ranked third hardest 3 hole stretch on the PGA Tour since 2003)
But first, a tip of the cap and a shotgun of Fosters for Cam Smith (35/1)! What a win for the Joe Dirt looking Aussie. Very likable guy.
Look, we aren’t one for excuses, but most of our picks last week got royally fucked with the draw and the weather. Morikawa and Brooks both missed the cut playing their first round in some of the worst conditions over the weekend. We’re mentioning this because we’ll be doubling down on them both this weekend. Love the angle that that they’re rested and pissed off. Prime bounce back position while half the field is exhausted from grinding out The Players into Monday. Also, they grade out fairly well.
Horses:
Collin Morikawa +1200 — Kawa is the third favorite behind Hovland (11/1) and JT (10/1). What’s the biggest difference between these 3 golfers? Collin played less golf last weekend! Oh I just love the vision of a soaking wet Morikawa already looking to next week with a chip on his shoulder. MMPH! I’ll have seconds please.
Dustin Johnson +1500 — Hopping on one other horse, and this time it’s one who did play more golf last weekend. But he finished so well in the final round it’s hard not to take notice. DJ tied the course record with a round of 63 on Monday. We’re looking to capitalize on Dustin finding his best form after a grinder of a tournament.
Solids:
Brooks Koepka +3000 — Brooks joined Collin in the “fuck this shit” boat last weekend. He shot a hilarious 81 in his second round. He’s had 3 missed cuts this season, and followed them up with a 3rd, 9th and 16th place finish. Bounce Back Koepka is what we like to call him.
Abraham Ancer +3500 — Abe was actually in contention at The Players early, but fizzled out as the rain continued. Not a mudder, confirmed. But still a threat nonetheless.
Long-shots:
Christian Bezuidenhout +6500 — Bez was one of the few guys to completely skip out on The Players. Love it. Pass on the tournament with the biggest payout to get ready fro the Snake Pit.
Kevin Kisner +7500 — Strong showing last weekend from KK. Let’s run it back.
Francesco Molinari +12000 — If the books are going to keep putting Molinari at over 100/1, then it’s worth a min bet for a guy who consistently finishes in the top 50.