There is nothing quite like MLB Opening Day. So beautiful, so innocent, so pure. Full of hopes and dreams. The marathon starts today, and for the better part of six months we will be blessed with non-stop regular season action. Wherever you are tomorrow - make an effort to get out, grab a beer and a hot dog to catch a couple innings.
None of us at the Degen are huge baseball brains, but don’t get it twisted - our resume is still pretty nice. We hit the Braves WS 9/1 and Ohtani MVP 40/1 two years ago, and Sandy Alcantara Cy Young 17/1 last year. However, we will still be sure to lean on our trusted experts this time of year, because betting MLB is where analytics shine.
As always for the day to day it’s best to catch us on Twitter (@thedegenweekly; @steaakfriend, @greg_gogodino). And if you want to let people know what you’re doing everyday without saying a word, our merch can be found on the website:
For this weeks newsletter we’re going to keep it short and sweet. We want to give some of our favorite futures, win totals, and player props for the 2023 season.
First pitch is at 1:05pm EST today so no time to waste.
AL East
Best Bets:
Yankees to win AL East (+130) and AL (+370) (Jake) - There hasn’t been much hype around this Yankees team and that’s what’s catching my attention. Yes they enter the season banged up, but I think that leads to some good value on them to win the division and the league.
Aaron Judge Over 44.5 HR (Greg) - This was at 42.5 earlier in the week and its moving up. Typically I would have zero interest to backing a guy coming off a career year AND getting a huge contract, but I think it’s a bit too trendy to fade him in this spot. Not a bet I’m in love with, but absolutely worth a unit.
Orioles Under 78.5 (Jake) - This team was a contrarian gamblers kryptonite last year, but I’m coming back for more pain. I think they might have peaked a year early.
Blue Jays Under 91.5 (Jake) - Insane amount of talent but another one I’m chalking up to being a bit too overvalued based on public perception.
Blue Jays to Win Division +205 (Degen) - I know Jake is fading this team because they’re trendy, but they were also trendy last year and fell flat. I think this is the time to buy the hype. Taking my guy PhilsUtley advice and going for the value rather than backing the win total.
Rays Over 89.5 (Degen) - It’s no secret the Rays have one of the best pitching rotations in baseball (sprinkle Drew Rasmussen Cy Young 150/1 if you can find it per Jovan). Their bullpen is also stacked. But their hitting? That’s the question mark, but I think it delivers. The Rays didn’t make a splash in the off-season, and I think it’s because they know their lineup will figure it out this year after being abysmal last season. People forget that half the lineup was hurt most of 2022 and we played with AAA guys. Reliable hitters like Margot and Lowe appear to be healthy. Expect big things from Jose Sir too. Now I’ll hand it off to idiot Greg…
Rays Under 89.5 (Greg) - Welcome Degenerate readers to year three of Degen and myself on opposite side of the Tampa Bay Rays. He says high, I say low. Rinse, repeat. Now, why would I want to fade a team that has one of the best rotations, a phenomenal bullpen, and plays their hearts out for 162 games? Because I can! The Rays do a ton of things very well, but I think this team is headed in the wrong direction and their track record shows it.
2020 - AL Champions
2021 - AL East Champs, lost in Div round
2022 - 3rd in AL East, swept in Wildcard round
AL Central
Best Bets:
White Sox to Win AL Central +260 (Jake/Degen) - Goodbye and good riddance Tony La Russa. This team could be primed to return to the top of the Central and we think they are being slept on after a disappointing 2022.
Dylan Cease Cy Young +900 (Jake) - In on all things White Sox this year.
White Sox Over 83.5 (Greg) - I can’t bring myself to take them to win the Division because the Guardians are just too damn scrappy, but I do like them to cover their win total.
AL West
Best Bets:
Angels Under 81.5 (Greg) - With all hype from the World Baseball Classic around Ohtani and Trout it’s almost too easy to fade this Angels team. Every year people get excited thinking this could be the year the Angels do something, every year I fade them, and every year it cashes.
Mariners Make Playoffs -150 (Greg) - This is going to be such a fun team this year and I want a piece. I’d rather lay the extra juice for a playoff spot than take their win total
NL East
Best Bets:
Mets Over 93.5 (Jake) - Despite losing Edwin Diaz in the WBC the Mets are going to be one of the best teams in the NL. Due to the injury they’ve lost a little love, but thats when I buy.
Aaron Nola Cy Young 12/1 (Degen) - Really liked the pitch from CamISMoney on the Board Review. He said…well I can’t remember exactly what he said, but it was good.
Francisco Lindor MVP +3000 (Greg) - Beg, borrow, steal. Call it what you will but I’m guilty of buying what @PeterAppeal23 is selling and he makes an incredibly strong case for Lindor at these odds.
NL Central
Best Bets:
Brewers Under 88.5 (Jake) - A tank job for the ages in the 2nd half of the 2022 season and I’m certainly not betting on a bounce back.
Brewers To Miss Playoffs (-120) - I invested in this team last year and it was a miserable experience. I am not going to zig then zag. Fuck the Brewers.
Cubs Over 77.5 (Degen) - Love the moves they made and respect their manager.
Reds Over 65.5 (Greg) - I burned so much money on this team last year. Ready to make it back this year. Lots of exciting young talent, as our guy Jovan pointed out on the Board Review.
Cardinals to win Division (Greg) - I’m short on the Brewers, but I’d rather take the Cardinals to win the Division in this spot.
NL West
Best Bets:
Mookie Betts MVP +1000 (Jake/Degen) - We think the Dodgers are going to be like the Chiefs. Tyreke leaves and everyone slept on Mahomes. The Dodgers lost a lot of big names and suffered an injury to Gavin Lux. This is absolutely a team we are willing to buy low on - in all aspects.
Dodgers Over 95.5 Wins (Degen) and World Series (Jake) +850 - Give us all things Dodgers.
Blake Snell OVER 182 K’s (Degen) - I’m not buying the Padres, but I’m not fading them either. However, I am very high on Snell. He started off last season 0-5 but then had a very nice bounce back.
Julio Urais Cy Young 18/1 (Degen) - This guy scares the absolute shit out of me whenever he’s on the mound.
Rockies Under 64.5 (Greg) - I always keep an eye out for a team with a low win total to fade, and this year its the Rockies. The D-Backs should be better, the Giants are solid, and the Dodgers/Padres are going to be at the top of the NL. Not a lot of opportunities for this Rockies team to scrape out some wins.
Manny Machado Under 28.5 HR (Greg) - I simply can’t bring myself to fade this team, so I’m getting a little creative and why not with the biggest asshole on the team who just got paid $350M.