There is no greater sign that Spring is here and Summer is right around the corner than the first pitch of the MLB season. Granted, this year America’s game started in South Korea with a two-game series between the Dodgers and the Padres. But today - it starts for real.
Below are a few of our season long bets from us digging into it as well as reaching out to some of the trusted big baseball brains on Twitter (X).
Admittedly, we do not know much about the actual X’s and O’s of baseball. As much as we love betting on the sports and enduring the grind, we can’t tell you what Xfip or WRC+ means. However, we do know some guys that do, and consulted with them on the streams throughout the week. Check out our YouTube page to watch the MLB preview specials with JakeMLB, Gate14, Jovan & Pete. For those that couldn’t make it on stream - we included their picks and write ups at the end of the newsletter.
As always, for the day to day MLB grind you can find us at (@thedegenweekly; @steaakfriend; @gogo__dino).
Today marks one of the best beers of the year, so find yourself some sunshine and a pint (even if it’s just for a couple innings) and get ready for some baseball. Cheers!
American League
AL East
Best Bets:
Vlad Jr Most HR’s +2500 (Degen) - This is strictly a “I may have been a year too early on Vlad” revenge bet. I use an app called Pikkit Sports (Promo Code: DEGEN) to track bets, and it told me at the end of last season my most bet player prop was Vlad to hit a Home Run. I think he MAYBE came through for me one time. Rather than go back 16 times in 2024, I’m going for the jugular.
Jose Berrios OVER 11 Wins -115 (Degen) - I like what I saw from Berrios last season, especially after a really down year in 2022. I also expect the Blue Jays to improve so this is how I decided to back them. Jose was 11-12 last year, but in five of those losses the Blue Jays were shutout - including at Cincinnati where we were in attendance to watch a RIVETING 1-0 Reds walk off.
Randy Arozarena MVP +7500 (Degen) - I can’t say I’m overly optimistic about the Rays season, but one thing I do feel confident about is Yandy Diaz and Randy putting the team on their back. The starting rotation should be fantastic when healthy, but the Rays have some young hitters that will need to prove themselves. After having experienced All-Star weekend last year where he performed in the HR Derby, I don’t think Randy wants to take any steps back. He’s going to solidify himself as the face of the franchise and a superstar to stay in the MLB.
Yankees Win Division +165 (Dino and Steak) - We are banking on a bounce back after a disastrous 2023.
Yankees World Series +900 and Aaron Judge MVP +700 (Steak) - Steak doesn’t believe in check swings.
Jackson Holliday AL ROY +470 (Steak) - The O’s know prospects.
AL Central
Best Bets:
Twins Over 86.5 Wins (Dino) and Twins win AL Central -115 (Steak) - It appears the AL Central is wide open with the Guardians ready for a bounce back and the Royals/Tigers being trendy, but Vegas is leaning into the Twins as big favorites so we’re buying.
Royce Lewis MVP +2800 (Degen) - I admittedly don’t know enough about the guy, but trusted baseball brains tell me “he’s fucking good”, and it would appear the oddsmakers concur. He’s go the same odds as Bo Bichette. I’ll dabble!
Spencer Torkelson OVER 29.5 HR’s -115 (Degen) - This is a 2 unit play for me. I like what Detroit is putting together (as do most bettors) but I specifically want to attack Torkelson. He’s a 24 year old former 1st overall pick (2020) that just had 31 home runs, and I’m ready to ride the Tork train all season. Do I care that he didn’t hit a home run in spring training? No…well maybe a little…but mostly no.
Tarik Skubal Cy Young +1600 (Squad ride) - A bit trendy, but a guy we want a part of.
Bobby Witt MVP +1800 MVP (Steak) - Young man is about to have himself a big year.
AL West
Best Bets:
Mariners OVER 87.5 Wins -135 (Squad ride) - Such a fun team with stacked pitching. Last year was a let down. Let’s see how they bounce back.
Julio Rodriguez AL MVP +1400 (Degen) - Do you see the jersey swap with Paolo? Yea that’s enough for me.
Luis Castillo AL Cy Young (Steak) - Sensing the Mariners trend yet?
Mike Trout MVP +2000 (Dino & Degen) - Fading the Angels has been a time honored tradition for me, but this year I’m going to take a sprinkle on Trout when everyone seems to have forgotten about him.
Brandon Drury OVER 75.5 RBI’s -115 (Degen) - I’ve been a Drury fan since he was on the Reds thanks to our guy Jovan. Now that Ohtani is gone, I think a weight might be lifted off this teams shoulders in terms of spotlight and expectations. This is the hitter I want to attack not named Mike Trout.
National League
NL East
Best Bets:
Mets OVER 80.5 (Squad Ride) - It’s tough to find a lower floor than the Mets last year, but we are riding on a bounce back. The concern is that we all know the Mets are building for the future, so if they don’t get off to a good start they could be sellers at the deadline. We’re betting on a good start. Sometimes too many big names in the same clubhouse can backfire. We think the Mets have just the right amount of star power with Alonso, Lindor and Nimmo in that lineup to be a pesky bunch.
Alonso Most RBI’s +850 (Degen) and Alonso MVP (Steak) - If there is one guy we want a piece of it’s Alonso in a contact year.
Braves World Series +450 (Dino) - Pulling up at the squares table for this one and riding with Atlanta.
Marlins Under 77.5 (Dino) - If you want some reasons listen to Peter Appeal that’s where I got this one from. Here’s his pitch.
NL Central
Best Bets:
Pirates Over 75.5 wins (Dino) - I’ll be honest, this is a little bit of a homer play. BUT the Pirates have some real promise this year and I want to lean into it. It’s worth mentioning that I probably haven’t bet on them to do anything in about a decade.
Reds Under 77.5 wins (Steak) - They where red hot for a bit last year, but cooled off down the stretch, Steak says the woes continue in a new year.
NL West
Best Bets:
Giants Over 84.5 Wins and Make Playoffs +160 (Dino) - I love the moves this team made in the offseason and I’m doing a double dip on them.
Walker Buehler Cy Young +4000 (Dino) - Huge fan of this guy and think I’m getting some value with him coming off the injury.
Bobby Miller Cy Young +3300 (Degen) - Strictly tailing my guy Weston here. He was anti Bobby Miller last season, and now doing a complete 180. Must’ve seen something he liked and that’s good enough for me.
Yashinobu Yamamoto NL ROY +250 (Steak) - Buying the hype.
FEATURED BETS FROM DEGEN FAVORITES
Olly1Unit
PIT over 72.5 wins (play up to 75.5) Risk 8.25u to win 7.5u
Andrew McCutchen may not be the player he was 5+ years ago but leadership and vibes MATTER in baseball. Ball knowers are aware of this. Clubhouse morale needs to stay high for a team to have season long success. His experience, leadership, and aura WILL positively impact this team as their DH. Paired with an exciting core of high ceiling low floor guys ahead of him…it’s sink or swim time for the young Pirates bats. I choose SWIM.
Mitch Keller gives another all star season backed by innings eaters (Perez, Marco, Flater), this rotation is good enough to be solid in this crappy NL central division. Not to mention some intriguing names that we will see this year…Skenes & Jared Jones are both young arms that WILL see time
Do NOT sleep on the Holderman & Bednar combo in innings 8 & 9…quietly one of the more dominant 8-9 punches out there…not to mention sleeper guys like Mlodzinski…the Pirates bullpen is damn solid.
CLOSING REMARKS
They are in an interesting spot where they really don’t have any impact pieces to ditch at the deadline. MAYBE Reynolds or Bednar? If I’m Ben Cherington I’m prioritizing those veterans and not ditching them. Favorite play. Biggest play ever. Go Buccos.
TB under 85 wins (Risk 3u to win 2.73u)
Siri & Peredes combining for 55 HR’s again? I think not…career years from Yandy, Peredes, Siri, RALEY, J Lowe…don’t believe in the offense to reproduce those numbers! I think we get regression SZN from most of those names. Maybe I’m wrong and Rays continue to magic…but I also would not be surprised one bit to see Randy’s name in trade talks early and often.
Rays bread and butter. The inventors of the opener and still rely on that so does the rotation really matter? To a degree it does. You need consistent length out of 3 of those guys for the strategy to work! Glasnow? Gone. Shane? Out for the year. Baz? Who knows. Pepiot will likely be a stud at some point with their development…but right away? I have my doubts.
You can most certainly count on the Rays to turn out stud after no name stud from the pen. It will be one of the leagues best…but can they carry the team to 85 wins? They will often be asked to pitch 3+ days a week tallying an enormous amount of innings yet again. Is this the year the rubber band snaps? I think the pen will not be a concern for this team.
CLOSING REMARKS
The best thing about this Rays team is the fact Wander Franco is gone. There’s NO DOUBT he was a distraction in the clubhouse. He never seemed to really fit in. Point goes to Rays backers. On the other hand…in ‘23 they started 13-0! And stayed hot winning 17 of their first 20 games…they finished with 99 wins. Historic start large part of it…much like the Reds egregious losing streak in ‘22 I don’t think we see these insane hit stretches from the Rays. Fade fade fade. My least confident team win total (out of the 4 I’m on), but had to add it to this blog.
Polar Bear Pete Alonso HR Leader +900
Not a whole lot to this one. In 4 full seasons (excluding the Covid shortened 2020 season), Alonso has gone for 53 (led league), 37, 40, 46. He has been healthy his entire career playing at least 152/162 games all 4 full seasons. For a year long player prop that is pretty critical.
It’s a contract year for him. It isn’t a secret guys know when they’re about to be a free agent and they get their 1 chance to secure generational wealth. Will he fold under the pressure? He’s played in NEW YORK for 5 years…he can handle it.
Did I mention the most important piece? For every home run he hits, he’s donation $1000 to animal shelters. Move over Barry Bonds, Polar Pete is coming for the record. FOR ALL THE DOGGOS
Thank you Mr. DEGENWEEKLY for appreciating my ball knowledge and letting me ramble. For all my other futures check out my Twitter, Action Network or Pikkit accounts. That’s right…3 sources of transparency.
CamIsMoney
Spencer Strider most strikeouts +175 2u - Only way I see this not hitting is injury but that’s why we gamble.
Guardians over 78.5 wins -120 risk 3u & win the AL Central +340 1u - I’ve always been high on this Guards team and I think the very young Guardians lineup takes a step forward and the pitching has all the tools to be elite. Vogt is a coach you run through a wall for.