NBA & NHL Playoffs - Round 1
The Real Season Begins
This is it. The regular season is over - it’s Playoff time baby!
For the next ~3 months we have tons of action with the NBA & NHL playoffs. We’ll stop by as they progress and let you know where our head is at for each round.
The NHL picture is clear, but the NBA has one more night of play-in games before we finalize the 8-Seeds. Good enough for us to get rolling.
The NFL Draft is next week. Yes, we gamble on it.
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2025 NBA Playoffs
THE WEST
#1 OKC Thunder Vs #8 TBD
Not much to say here as we need to wait till late tonight to determine who OKC will face. It’s likely to be the Grizzlies, which could be a little exciting, but regardless of their opponent it’s unlikely they put up much of a fight.
The Pick: Thunder in 5
The Bets:
No official bets, but we will pick our spot to fade the Thunder for a game or two should the Grizzlies advance.
#2 Houston Rockets (+140) vs. #7 Golden State Warriors (-165)
It’s not everyday you see the #7 Seed as a favorite over the #2 Seed. But who wants to bet against Golden State with the way they’ve been playing with Jimmy Butler?
We aren’t drinking the Warriors Kool-Aid just yet, and the Rockets are a bit more scrappy than your average bettor might give them credit for.
The Pick: Warriors in 7
The Bets: Game by game, look for our spots to take the Rockets.
#3 LA Lakers (-185) vs. #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (+155)
If there is one thing Steak has been consistent with this year, it’s that the Minnesota Timberwolves are FRAUDS! It doesn’t feel like too steep of a price, and it’s likely as public of a bet you can make in this round. Blocking out the noise - we’re lining up to take the Lakers.
The Pick: Lakers in 6
The Bets:
Lakers Series (-185) - Greg and Steak*
(* this is a 5 Unit Steak play)
#4 Denver Nuggets (+100) vs. #5 Clippers (-120)
This should be the best series out of the West. The Clippers could be that team that gets it together at the right time. The Nuggets might be a bit overrated based on their Championship run in 2023. We think a lot of people will be lining up to take Jokic with home court as an underdog.
The Pick: Clippers in 7
The Bets:
Clippers to win Series -120 (Steak)
Series Over 5.5 Games -215 (Greg)
THE EAST
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 TBD
If the Heat win tonight, it wouldn’t shock us if they win a game or two in this series.
If the Hawks win, it’s likely a sweep.
Either way - hard pass on this one.
The Pick: Cavs in 4
The Bets: None
#2 Boston Celtics (-8000) vs #7 Orlando Magic (+2200)
Boston at -8000 is hilarious. A $100 bet would net you $1.25 in profit.
Surprisingly the Magic won the regular season series 2-1, but that means nothing now.
The Pick: Celtics in 4
The Bet:
Celtics Sweep (+130) - Steak
#3 New York Knicks (-420) vs #6 Pistons (+330)
This is where we think things could get a bit interesting. Steak’s leaning into the full upset, and Greg’s playing it a bit different. Either way we both think the Pistons provide a bit of excitement in an expected blowout.
The Pick: Knicks in 6
The Bets:
Pistons (+330) - Steak - 0.5 Units play
Pistons Game 1/Knicks Series (+390) - Greg
#4 Indiana Pacers (-165) vs. #5 Milwaukee Bucks (+140)
One of our favorite bets of the first round. This has steamed down towards the Bucks with news that Dame Lillard might be available. All we know right now is that Dame is unavailable for Game 1 and there is hope he could return at some point during this series. Either way, we’re going Pacers.
The Pick: Pacers in 6
The Bets:
Pacers (-165) - Greg and Steak
Stanley Cup Playoffs
Few things in life better than playoff hockey. There’s plenty to be excited about, but it is a bit of a travesty that due to the seeding you have potentially the best teams in the East and West playing each other in the first round. Could be a great opportunity for someone to sneak in and make some noise if the top teams beat each other up early.
You can watch the round 1 preview with Degen & Jovan here:
Atlantic Division
#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-185) vs #4 Ottawa Senators (+150)
Two years ago I took the Leafs to win the Cup. Shit wager. Last year I took the Leafs to win the Presidents Cup. Shit wager x2. What I’m trying to tell you is that despite burning my money and letting down their fans, I still believe this Leafs team feels like it could make a run.
The Leafs kept their core of Matthews, Marner and Nylander but finally added some goaltending. Stolarz has been rock solid in net and Toronto finished the season winning 9/10 games. Vibes (and expectations) are high once again. Yet, I still can’t overlook the fact that playoff hockey is a different beast, and this draw of playing Ottawa in the first round is going to be a battle. The Leafs are more talented and more experienced, but the Senators have Brady Tkachuk and some rowdy home ice.
Most will probably tell you that the Leafs make light work of the Senators. Not us. I think Toronto advances, but it won’t be easy. Fun fact: since March 1st, the Senators have been the best team in the East. The second best team? The Toronto Maple Leafs. Ullmark is also good enough to stand on his head and steal a game or two.
The Bets:
Over 5.5 Games (-170) = Degen
Senators (+150) - Greg
#2 Tampa Bay Lightning (+100) vs #3 Florida Panthers (-120)
If you could only pick one series to watch, this might be it. The Panthers have constructed the idea roster to win multiples Stanley Cups. Combine that with high level goalie play out of Bobrovsky and elite coaching from Paul Maurice, I came into this season thinking the Cats could repeat and potentially win 3 of the next 4.
But this is the worst possible draw for Florida. The Lighting are terrifying. The battle of Florida saw a 2-2 series split in the regular season, but the Cats have been missing some key pieces. Ekblad was suspended 20 games and isn’t returning until game 3 of this series. Matthew Tkachuk has also missed time and is returning in game 1. This is obviously good news that key pieces are returning, but it’s also tough to just have them thrown in and not skip a beat during a playoff series against a team like Tampa.
I’ve gone back and forth quite a few times. If you asked me yesterday when I tweeted my bracket, I had the Bolts winning in 7. After giving it some thought, I think I have to swing back to the Panthers. As much as I respect Vasy and Kucherov, I just can’t get over how pesky the Panthers can be with Marchand and Tkachuk - the two biggest rats in hockey. This should be a phenomenal series that I don’t seeing either team making quick work of.
The Bets:
Bolts GM1/Panthers win Series (+370) - Degen
Over 5.5 Games (-190) - Greg
Metro Divison
#1 Washington Capitals (-275) vs #4 Montreal Canadiens (+220)
As much as I’d like to buy into the Canadiens pulling off the upset after their incredible finish to the season and miraculously making it in the playoffs…I just can’t.
I’ve never really been one to fully buy into the Washington Capitals, and it always burns me. The Caps are 22-7-1 following a loss. That’s not a team you want to put your money against in a 7 game series. Can’t get involved here but pulling for Montreal.
The Bet: None
#2 Carolina Hurricanes (-280) vs #3 NJ Devils (+225)
There is only one thing you need to know about the Carolina Hurricanes is that I’ve bet them to win the Cup the last two years, and didn’t this year. That means OF COURSE these fuckers will run through the East and hoist the trophy. Because that’s how it goes. That happened to me with the Lighting and the Avs. I’m not kidding - get your tickets in now!
In all seriousness, I love so many things about the Carolina Hurricanes: their roster, home ice and coach. What they’ve been lacking is strong enough goalie play to get them over edge. Will that change this year? Maybe…I don’t know…probably not…but maybe.
Carolinas window is closing. They have an ideal path to the Cup. I know the Caps are the top team in the East, but let’s be honest, you would probably much rather play them next than the Leafs, Cats or Panthers. It’s chalky and it’s square, but I do not care - I think Carolina puts an emphasis on taking out NJ quick.
The Bet:
Under 5.5 Games (+125) - Degen
Central Division
#1 Winnipeg Jets (-225) vs #4 St. Louis Blues (+185)
Similar to the Canadiens, I’d like to buy into the red hot St Louis Blues after ripping off 13 wins in a row and finding themselves in the playoffs. Yet again, I just can’t do it.
The Jets and Helly have not had much success in the postseason. Now add in the President’s Cup curse, and you could argue that the Blues might be quite the trendy dog in this series. I’ve watched the Jets quite a few times this year and every single time they have looked like absolute wagons. Unlike some other top teams (Stars, Caps), they did not slow down to end the season. Winnipeg went 14-6 in their last 20 games, and haven’t lost b2b since March 4th.
Greg is getting cute with the Blues, but I’m thinking the Jets in 5.
The Bet:
Jets -1.5 (-105) - Degen
Blues +1.5 -115 (Greg)
#2 Dallas Stars (+145) vs #3 Colorado Avalanche (-170)
At first glance, I could not believe this line. It’s not THAT surprising for the Avs to be getting respect, but the opener I saw was Avs -130. I’m going to assume with the Jason Robertson injury in the season finale it’s getting steamed even harder.
I had the Stars as much pre season Cup winner. I didn’t bet it because they’ve burned me before, and Ottenger turns into a pumpkin come playoff time. I really did think this Stars team was built to win a Cup, just like how I felt about the Panthers. The difference is they lack dawg. You really need some dawg in you, and the one player who had it, Miro Heiskanen, is also injured. Bad news galore for Dallas.
While it seems like Pros and Joes are all over the Avs, you won’t find me being contrarian and taking Dallas. I respect Colorado too much. I’m also kind of a low-key Mackenzie Blackwood guy. The Avs are so good that they don’t need elite goalie play, but it can’t be as bad as Georgiev either. Blackwood feels like the perfect fit in net. Oh and Landeskog might be back. Great story. This is a sit back and watch type of series.
The Bet:
Avalanche (-150) - Greg — W CLV!
Pacific Division
#1 Vegas Golden Knights (-235) vs #4 Minnesota Wild (+190)
I went 4-2 in point total wagers this season (nbd). The Knights were my favorite over. I’m a big fan of Adin Hill, who tends to be up and down, but I will never forget the 2023 form when VGK won the cup. He was almost as dominant as peak Vasy. The Knights were regular season wagons and have playoff experience. I’m also a fan of Eichel but unfortunately played his over goals. Wrong move - he had 66 assists.
What I’m getting at is I’m a Knights guy. I can’t bring up the W’s without bringing up the L’s, because I faded the Wild, and despite playing most of the year without Kaprizov, they still wen’t over. It’s not that I don’t respect Minnesota, because they do have some firepower, but I just think the Knights are far superior. My strongest position in round 1 will be on VGK to get this one over quickly.
The Bet:
VGK -2.5 Series Games (+190) - Degen
#2 LA Kings (+110) vs #3 Edmonton Oilers (-140)
It’s interesting that the Oilers have been everyone’s pick to win the West for the past few seasons, and yet it now feels like most are predicting an early out. There are legitimate reasons to this, as Edmonton has been hit hard with injuries. So I get it, but seeing this much Kings love and this little faith in the Oilers does have me a tad concerned. I also think that the oddsmakers are still giving Edmonton quite a bit of respect for being the team without home ice AND considering how good LA is at home. So for that reason, I’m out.
The Bet:
Oilers -130 (Greg) — W CLV AGAIN!
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Best of luck to all your best in the postseason and we’ll check in on you in Round 2!