NBA & NHL Playoffs - Round 2
Survive & Advance
What an unbelievable finish to the first round of the NHL Playoffs this weekend. Both game 7’s did not disappoint. As for the NBA, there were some close series, but anticlimactic endings. The National Blowout Association lived up to its name.
The stages for round two are set. Below we’ll give our thoughts on each and best bets.
2025 NBA Playoffs
THE EAST
Boston Celtics (-850) vs New York Knicks (+590)
Last week I (Degen) mentioned in the Board Review that I thought the Knicks could give Boston a tough series if they were to advance. That take got shot down IMMEDIATELY by everyone in the chat. I’m talking everyone from Knicks fans to ball knowers.
Apparently the Celtics whooped the Knicks ass in the regular season, and this is a nightmare matchup on the court for NY. It makes sense, and I really do respect Boston as an overall juggernaut in the East, but both Steak and I were really shocked by how much complaining the Celtics did against the little ole Orlando Magic.
I’m really not too sure how much actual dawg the Knicks have. It’s mostly Josh Hart, who’s over PRA I have been betting every game and will continue to bet, but outside of that, I’d say OG and Mikal Bridges have been underwhelming. The Knicks seem to be a two headed monster that relies on KAT and Brunson to go off. I respect how hard the Detroit Pistons fought, but it really feels like the Knicks haven’t had a game where more than two starters have been on. What happens in this series if they’re able to put together multiple complete games? It’s certainly asking a lot, as Thibs is notorious for playing his guys too much and burning them out by the playoffs. But deep down…I think it could happen.
Ultimately, the line tells the story, and the C’s most likely will make light work of the Knicks here. We are not Celtics haters. Steak even had Boston to win it all last year. As a New York resident, I enjoy the Knicks being good and in the playoffs. I want them to win. But I don’t know that they can or will. I’m tempted to make a wager in this series…but I’m also soft. Steak isn’t.
The Bets:
OVER 5.5 Games (+124) - Steak
Cleveland Cavaliers (-225) vs Indiana Pacers (+170)
We just played the Cavs -8 in game one. They lost outright. Is it time to buy low and not overreact, or are the Pacers a real problem? Steak says we go the Buffet route.
One thing is for sure - the Cavs miss Darius Garland. There is only so much they can expect from a guy like Ty Jerome in the playoffs. How realistic is it to see the shooting performances in game one repeat themselves? The Pacers couldn’t miss from 3, shooting 53%, and the Cavs couldn’t make anything as they were 27%. Now is the time to buy in on the Cavs, Steak says. If you fear the juice then lay off and keep scrolling.
The Bets:
Cavs to win Series (-225) - Steak
THE WEST
Minnesota Timberwolves (-175) vs Golden State Warriors (+150)
I hope Steak and Greg are reading this right now, because they are fucking BOZOS for fading my guy Anthony Edwards in the first round. Hahaha, idiots! These guys went to war with beer belly Luka and old man Lebron. Thinking it would be that easy against the face of the NBA. What a bunch of dummies.
Okay but seriously, I truly have not been all in on this Wolves team at any point this season. Last year I sniped them to beat the Suns, but that was with KAT. I think I like KAT more than most people, but I digress. Post trade and new look Minnesota is not a team I was hyped about all year…but that all just changed oh so quickly.
I love Anthony Edwards, and I do not care who knows. I’ve been vocal about saying he is (earmuffs Paolo) my favorite player in the NBA. But even looking past the Wolves young superstar, I’m starting to see a team with new faces that’s figuring out how to play together. Julius Randle was a demon round one. Rudy Gobert had one of the best playoff games of his career to send the Lakers home. The Wolves have dudes, and they are much deeper than the Warriors.
Golden States window was all but shut until they traded for Jimmy Butler. Kudos to them for taking down the 2 seed Houston Rockets and winning a game 7 on the road, but like Shania Twain said “that don’t impress me much.” The Rockets are very young an inexperienced in the playoffs. Their 20 year olds were a bit of a no show in game 7, and Golden State was somewhat bailed out by a legacy performance from Buddy Hield. Take a look at the box score and tell me what the Warriors bench did. Answer: nothing. Fading Steph scares me, but he ain’t enough to beat Minnesota.
The Bets:
Wolves to win Series (-178) - Degen
Warriors to win Series (+150) - Greg
Oklahoma City Thunder (-900) vs Denver Nuggets
Hey kids, want to see a dead body? By dead body we mean a ticket that’s not hitting.
The Thunder are so cool and they’re probably going to cruise to the NBA Finals. However, this number is just too good to pass up. The Nuggets are not what they once were, but they still have their core, and they also fired their coach right before the playoffs. Steak and I are going to take a shot on the Nuggets solely because of the “value” our model suggests, but not doubling down on anything in this series.
The Bet: None
Stanley Cup Playoffs
THE EAST
Toronto Maple Leafs (+145) vs Florida Panthers (-175)
Going to cut right to the chase - I’m a Florida Panthers guy. I fell all the way in love with their team in last years playoffs. I’ve gone to Sunrise to watch a game in person both against the Knights and Oilers (they’re 0-2 when I’m in attendance, btw). This team not only has a roster capable of winning multiple Stanley Cups, but the right coach for it as well.
I took them to win the East (+370) after the beat the Lighting in game 1. Something about the way they were able to squeak out a win despite being outplayed spoke to me. Then I thought to myself how they’re just a nightmare matchup for anyone in a 7 game series, especially the Leafs.
I will say this about Toronto though - if it was ever their year, this could be the year. They finally have a coach I respect, and acquired some good goaltending. Getting Stolarz (who was the Panthers backup last year) turned out to be one of the better off-season signings. The Leafs dominated the Senators for most of the series but still tend to tuck their tail between their legs in high pressure situations. I will be shocked if they’re able to upset the Panthers, who are just overloaded with rats now that they’ve got Marchand. The concern I have is it does feel like everyone is also on the Florida Panthers bandwagon. Always makes me uncomfortable, but I ain’t scared. Toronto will win a game or two, including one in Sunrise, but it’s the Cats in 6.
The Bets:
Panthers -1.5 games (+118) - Degen
Leafs to win Series (+145) - Steak
Washington Capitals (+135) vs Carolina Hurricanes (-165)
Before I was a Panthers guy, I was a Hurricanes guy. Bet them to win the Cup the last two years. In 2023 when Svechnikov got hurt, I cashed out.
I think this series is going to rock. You got Carolina who can’t get over the hump but has all the talent and coaching to do it. In their way you’ve got one of the most disrespected #1 seeds in recent memory. I will tell you what would scare the piss out of me if I was Carolina, and that’s how well Logan Thompson has been playing. You think Tom Wilson and Ovechkin are frightening, there is nothing and I mean NOTHING you don’t want less than having to face a hot goalie.
It’s juicy, but this feels like the ultimate slugfest. I don’t see anyone winning 4-1.
The Bets:
OVER 5.5 Series Games (-195)
THE WEST
Vegas Knights (-120) vs Edmonton Oilers (+100)
The Knights were my favorite regular season team. I took their over point total and even dabbled on Eichel goals. That lost because of course he decided to be fucking Steve Nash and have a billion assists.
Anyways, I got nothing here. I think VGK can advance but Adin Hill just has not impressed me. Vegas made the Wilds offensive look like the 2000 LA Rams. Boldy and Kaprizov were slicing and dicing. I truly fear what an Oilers team that just woke up and is being slept on is capable of. Lean Edmonton but no bet.
The Bet: NONE
Winnipeg Jets (+140) vs Dallas Stars (-170)
Two teams that travelled similar paths. The difference is that the Jets were big favorite, and the Stars were written off.
Winnipeg was a steep price to beat the Blues, but don’t overlook what they were able to accomplish because St Louis was arguably the hottest team in the NHL. Biggest problem for Winnipeg is not that Scheifele and Morrissey are hurt, but that Helly is back to having holes in his glove come playoff time.
The Stars were able to survive the Avalanche in heroic fashion thanks to a hat trick from Mikko Rantaanen. Ottinger was good at times, and he was bad at times. Dallas is also dealing with some injuries.
I’m not a doctor and have no idea who is expected to come back, but here’s what I do know - these fucking goalies need to show up. I don’t know how to attack the series, but I will bet game by game on them doing so. Give me the under in every game till I lose two in a row.
The Bet:
Total Games: 7 (+175) - Greg
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Thanks for reading! Good luck and please gamble responsibly.