NBA Championship, NHL Conference Finals & The Memorial Tournament
The Nitty Gritty
The sports gods are treating us well. We’ve got more than enough distractions to get us through the next 98 days till football season starts. Where do we even begin?
NBA CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW
Celtics +140 vs Warriors -165
Game 1: Celtics @ Warriors -3.5 Total 211.5
It’s no secret that the NBA Playoffs have been a bit of a letdown this year. Most games were blowouts and with few upsets. However, we think it’s safe to say this finals matchup is objectively exciting. Sure, the Warriors are going for their 4th title in 8 years, and Boston as a city has more than enough trophies…but nobody saw this matchup coming, and that’s a great thing for the NBA.
Back in January, the Celtics were .500 (21-21) and there were talks of potentially breaking up Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum. The Warriors also had their fair share of bumps - hitting a stretch in March where they went 7-16. Steph was injured, and Klay was (and sort of is) still trying to find his old self. It’s not much of a surprise that the Warriors figured it out, but with Boston having a rookie head coach in Imo Udoka, it’s beyond impressive they figured it out and made it to the Finals. Not only that, but since the All-Star break the Celtics have statistically been the best defensive team in the NBA.
The Celtics took their time crafting this team, and did so by pulling off some of the best moves in recent memory. Danny Ainge retired this year, but he left the Celtics in great shape and loaded with young talent. Let us never forget perhaps the greatest trade in NBA history…
Full disclosure: our series picks this year have been TERRIBLE. The approach we’re taking in this series is betting it game by game. For Game 1, we are fading the public narrative in a rest vs rust situation, and backing the Celtics +3.5.
Boston is coming off of two grueling 7 games series, while Golden State made light work of both the Nuggets and Mavericks. The Warriors have rested up and gotten healthy, as they expect to have Gary Payton Jr, Otto Porter and Iguadala available for tonights game and this series. That’s too much good news. Remember, as contrarian bettors, we sell good news. But if we had to give you a pick on how this series plays out - it’s Warriors in 6.
The Pick: Game 1 - Celtics +3.5
NHL CONFERENCE FINALS
THE WEST
Oilers +350 vs Avalanche -440 (1-0)
Game 2: Oilers (+150) @ Avalanche (-180) Total 7.5
Credit to the Blues for playing their assess off against Colorado and taking the series 6 games. In the end, Binnington being injured ruined any chance they had to play spoiler, but let’s be honest…the Avs are a fucking wagon.
Edmonton had perhaps one of the most surprising series upsets in the entire NHL Playoffs, taking care of Calgary in 5 games. Nobody, especially me, saw that coming. Yes - we are fully aware of how good Conner McDavid and Leon Draisatl are, but for the 100th time - they have fucking MIKE SMITH in net! The real shocker in that series was how poorly Markstrom (Flames goalie) played. Nevertheless, we’ve got our Western Conference matchup and are already 1 game in.
As expected, it was cocaine on ice. 14 goals were scored, making it the 10th highest scoring playoff game ever, and the Avs took a 1-0 series lead winning 8-6. The total was set at 7, which is the highest it’s ever been for an NHL Conference Final. After game 1’s result, the oddsmakers now have it at 7.5 (under -125).
Personally, we think the scoring should slow down a bit, as defense must be emphasized by both sides. The Av’s and Oilers biggest weaknesses are both in net, so it’s not surprising that the game-plan in game 1 was to play fast and take advantage of that liablity. But that isn’t going to work for Edmonton. They need to focus on limiting Colorados scoring chances, because they Av’s are just too deep and will expose your defense (and 40 year old goaltender) in relentless fashion.
Ultimately, we do think the Oilers are capable of sneaking in a win or two, and put the series at Av’s in 6. Would a sweep surprise us? Absolutely not, but that’s not how we are betting it game by game. Our next play will be UNDER 7.5 in game 2.
THE EAST
RANGERS -125 VS LIGHTNING +100
Game 2: Lightning (-125) @ Rangers (+105) Total 5.5
A tale of two series. What the West lacks in net, the East makes up for. It’s hard to even think about this being a matchup between the Lighting and Rangers. Really, it’s more about two of the best goalies in the NHL - Igor Shesterkin vs Andrei Vasilevskiy.
If you’ve been following, you know how much we respect Vasy, and loaded up on him in game 7 against Toronto. He is in our opinion the best playoff goalie of all time. Tampa barely broke a sweat in it’s 4 game sweep against the Panthers thanks to Vasy only allowing 3 games all series. But here’s the problem for Tampa Bay…and I tried to warn them on twitter about it last night:
This is the problem for Tampa. They saw offense in the Toronto series, and it almost got them eliminated. The Panthers had a terrific offense in the regular season, but they are an outlier because they’re a pathetic sack of losers come playoff time. The Rangers, however, are young and they are lethal when clicking. And bad news for Bolts fans…it would appear the Rangers are clicking.
Similar to the Celtics/Warriors rest vs rust situation, we chose to back NYR in game 1. The reason being they just finished two 7 game series, while Tampa had rested for over a week. This is a classic play of fading the public narrative. Ultimately, the time off benefits Tampa because they are banged up and without some key players, but what the fear is that it would get Vasy out of his zone of seeing beach balls.
In a series with two of the best goalies in the NHL, you can be sure the public was and is hammering the UNDER in every single game in this series. As contrarians who fade the public, we also tried to warn people of this…
As the previous tweet above stated, I’m a Rangers fan, but there is no bias in this pick. The Lightning opened as a -180 favorite to win the series, and after game 1 where the Rangers dominated 6-2, there’s a reason for the big flip to Rangers now being -125 favorites. We think Tampa is in trouble here…Rangers in 7.
THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
(Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio)
I doubt many of you have the attention span or stamina to make it this far in the newsletter, but if so, welcome to The Memorial! We’ll make this short and sweet.
A quick look at this years PGA Tour winners. After a run of long-shots earlier in the season, we’ve come back down to earth just a smidge with some heavier favorites cashing. Rough average on the year is around 35/1, so that’s the sweet spot (looking at you, Sungjae).
Rahm (2020 winner) and Rory top the board here at +1000. Some notable moves up the ladder are Patrick Reed (yuck) now at 50/1, Lowry getting respect at 25/1, and under-the-radar-no-more mister Davis Riley 40/1. Let’s get into it!
Horses:
COLLIN MORIKAWA +2000 - You might be asking yourself “Degen, didn’t you just blacklist Morikawa after he missed 7 putts inside 10 feet last weekend?”. The answer is yes…yes I did. But time has passed, and I just can’t help myself. Here’s the problem, and it’s a serious problem - Kawa is legitimately on everyone’s card this weekend. Not kidding, if you spend a few minutes on twitter, you will not find a golf capper who didn’t pick Morikawa. I suppose it’s because he’s the best iron player in the world and the course suits his game, but Jesus H Christ…the guy can’t fucking putt!
Oh well, this is a FOMO bet. If he wins and I don’t have a ticket, after betting him a billion times this year, I’ll cry.
SHANE LOWRY +2500 - Okay, time to get serious. If not for the FOMO stated above, Shane would be our only horse riding into this weekend. He hasn’t won since 2019, but my goodness is he due. He’s got 6 finishes of 13th or better, and hasn’t placed outside of the top 25 in 2022. Feels like the time is right for Shane get LOWry.
Middle Men:
SUNGJAE IM +3500 — Another Degenerate favorite. Bias? Slightly, but we liked what we saw from Sungjae at the PGA CHAMPIONSHIP last week. He finished T15 in his first tournament back after taking some time off. The putter was still an issue, but the irons were dialed. Between Im and Morikawa, one of these fucks has to figure out how to putt…right?
Long-shots:
SEAMUS POWER +7000 — Sneaky good value here for a guy that’s been playing sneaky good golf. Seamus had a strong start to the year finishing T15 or better in 5 straight tournaments. But then he followed that up with 5 missed cuts in his next 7. Since then, Seams finished 17th at the Byron Nelson, and 9th at the PGA CHAMPIONSHIP. It’s also supposed to be wet and windy to start on Thursday, so can’t hurt backing two lads from Ireland where it’s constant overcast.
RICKIE FOWLER +8000 — Yes, you read that right! Rickie Freaky Fowler has been shocking the world as of late. Does it take much? No. But this streak of playing competent golf can’t go unnoticed. Last week wasn’t anything special, but he didn’t miss the cut. Prior to that he finished T25 or better in back-to-back tournaments. Be on the right side of history when Rickie shocks the world.