NBA Finals & Stanley Cup Preview
The Stages are Set
It’s very cliche, but it’s reality - we are in the dog days of summer. As baseball get’s going, basketball and hockey are coming to a close. The Championship stages are set, and most sports fans can agree we are satisfied with the matchups.
We’ll touch on both the NBA Finals & Stanley Cup in this weeks newsletter, giving you some nuggets worth noting, as well as our best bets.
Edmonton Oilers (+110) vs Florida Panthers (-130)
It’s taking everything in me (Degen) not to place 10 units on the Florida Panthers to win this series. I’ll get into why I’m favoring the Panthers later, but the reason I’m apprehensive isn’t just because I’m scared to fade McDavid - it’s because for some reason it feels like the Oilers aren’t being respected…again. Pierre Lebrun published an article in The Athletic where he asked NHL coaches and execs within the league who they’re picking to win it, and here’s what he got back: “In all, I heard back from 17 head coaches and 16 team executives. Out of those 33 responses, only four had the Oilers winning the Cup.”
Edmonton just took down the Dallas Stars in 6 games. I’ll admit I was wrong, as I thought the Stars were going to be this years Cup winner after they came back from being down 2-0 to beat the Golden Knights in the first round. I keep wanting to believe in head coach Peter DeBoer, but this guy just can’t get his teams to play their best hockey when it matters most. Good guy, but I’m done with him.
Before the WCF started, the Stars were -125 to win the series. I’m pretty tapped into sports betting banter amongst most of the talking heads. I listen to VSIN, podcasts, read twitter and articles all day because it’s my obsession. And let me tell ya, I didn’t come across a damn person giving the Oilers a chance against Dallas. I even heard people say they were shocked the line was so short. That’s always when there’s a cause for concern - when the oddsmakers are respecting a team that the betting public isn’t.
What I chose to believe, as I’m sure others did, is that the true disrespect was with the goaltending. Who could argue that the Stars didn’t have a significant advantage in net with Oettinger over Skinner. To everyone’s surprise, Skinner stepped up and is the main reason the Oilers find themselves playing for the Stanley Cup. After allowing 5 goals in game 3 at home, he responded by only allowing 4 goals in the next 3 games.
The Florida Panthers meanwhile just absolutely dominated the New York Rangers. Sure the series went to 6 games, but the Panthers outplayed them by a mile in 5/6. The Rangers were a bit lucky to win 2 games in OT thanks to Igor Shesterkin playing out of his mind. There were stretches in games where the Rangers didn’t sniff a shot on net. The tone was also set early, as the Panthers shutout NYR in game 1 at Madison Square Garden. If I recall correctly, the Rangers went 16 minutes without recording a shot on goal in that game. That is what the Panthers do so well - they suffocate their opponent because they’re mean, gritty, nasty, and they’ve got depth.
Florida also has a fantastic coach in Paul Maurice. He’s starting to become one of my favorite coaches in all of sports. A lot of people are giving the Panthers the edge due to their experience with having been here last year, and I don’t disagree with that at all. They’re also giving them the advantage with Bobrovsky over Skinner yet again, but I’m not hearing many people talk about the coaching advantage. Not taking anything away from Knoblauch and the job he’s done coming in midseason getting the Oilers this far, but he’s already giving the Cats some bulletin board material. Not to mention, an unnecessary stray at the beautiful city of Buffalo. Big mistake!
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS
I’ve never played hockey and am no expert, so I won’t go into the X’s and O’s pretending like I know what I’m talking about. What I can give you is my perspective as a sports bettor and a fan of the sport. Here’s how I see it:
This matchup reminds me of a College Football Championship featuring an old school SEC Defense against a high powered Big 12 offense. I’m the kind of guy that will always favor the defense. Give me the 2001 Baltimore Ravens or 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers against anybody. I don’t care if they have Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson at QB - defense wins championships. That’s the biggest advantage Florida has, and that’s what I am willing to bet on.
In addition to having one of the best defenseman in the league in Aleksander Barkov, they also have a goalie who’s in top form. Sergei Bobrovsky is peaking at the right time, as he’s only allowed 2 goals or less in 10 of his last 11 games.
It’s going to be a tall task for the Panthers defense to shutdown Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. As much as I respect the Cats coach Paul Maurice and think he’ll do a good job emphasizing to stay out of the box and play 5v5 hockey, you know the Panthers will take penalties. The Oilers power play is the best there is. Their studs are going to get looks, but I’m willing to wager that Bob will be a brick wall.
The Pick: Panthers in 5
It’s a 9 hour flight from Sunrise to Edmonton. You know who doesn’t want to make that trip multiple times? Everyone. The Cats finish this one quick. I know the Panthers are the consensus favorite, but everyone has this series going 6-7 games. I say the Oilers offense is enough to catch Bob slipping in one game and one game only.
SERIES BETS:
Conn Smythe: Sergei Bobrovsky (+375) — as mentioned, the Oilers are going to get looks, I say he steps up. The only thing that scares me about this bet is that I think it will be a very low scoring series and if the same Panthers player scores those big (and potentially game winning) goals, then that would take away from Bob. I’ll take the chance!
Carter Verhaege 3+ SOGs in every game (+600) — in the two regular season games the Panthers and Oilers played this season, Carter scored in both. Granted, Pickard was in net and not Skinner, I still think Verhaege has been finding the net quite well and will continue to do so in this series. He scored 3 goals against the Rangers and had 18 shots in those 6 games.
Matthew Tkachuk 3+ Goals in any game (+2000) — this is a guy who couldn’t finish out the Stanley Cup last year due to a broken sternum. You know all he wanted this year was to get back to the Final and have a chance to show what he’s capable of. I think it’s worth a sprinkle to say he shines in one.
Montour & Forsling combine for 1+ point in every game (+1400) — Forsling is a guy that has really stood out to me as of late. He’s been getting some good looks on net, and finding it. If he doesn’t score he’s capable of racking up an assist here or there as well. Forsling has seen a ton of time on the ice, and recorded a point in 4/6 against the Rangers.
Carter Verhaege Most Goals (+550) — I don’t think the Oilers are going to score much, and I think the Panthers are going to win in 5. Therefore, I say a splash on a Panthers guy is worth taking.
Gustav Formling 2+ Goals (+400) — my only concern here is if the series doesn’t last many games, it obviously is less opportunities for Forsling to score. But I still like what I’ve seen from him throughout the playoffs and feel comfortable with it.
Series Total Goals UNDER 32.5 (-110) — legit think there’s a chance ever game goes under. This is the way I can put my money where my mouth is.
Dallas Mavericks (+175) vs Boston Celtics (-210)
Feels like yesterday when the Celtics were in the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors. I remember texting Greg and Steak that I had the script…
Turns out, I did! And ya know what? I think I’ve got it again. Be sure to check twitter (@thedegenweekly) for my Mona Lisa Pt 2 reveal.
The Mavericks are an awesome team. I’ll be the first one to admit I thought the Kyrie trade was going to be a disaster and not work out well for Dallas. Wrong! This guy has seemed to finally mature and find the perfect role with this team. Dare I say he’s almost becoming likable again…
But as good of a backcourt as Luka and Kyrie are, I don’t think they’d be here without the moves made at the trade deadline to acquire PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford.
What’s funny is that there are rumors the Mavericks wanted to trade for Kuzma rather than Gafford at the time, but Kuzma rejected the trade. Ha!
NBA FINALS MVP ODDS:
Jayson Tatum -115
Luka Doncic +200
Jaylen Brown +750
Kyrie Irving +1000
Derrick White +3500
Kristaps Prozingis +4000
Jrue Holiday +5000
It’s been the year of chalk - Mahomes wins another Super Bowl, UConn wins the NCAA Championship and Scottie Scheffler wins The Masters. We at The Degenerate think chalk keeps rolling. It’s the Celtics year.
Steak: Celtics in 6
Greg: Celtics in 6
Degen: Celtics in 6
SERIES BEST BETS
Steak:
Celtics -1.5 games (+100)
Tatum Finals MVP (-115)
One or more games to reach OT (+190)
Greg:
6 Games Exact (+200)
Celtics win game 1/Dallas win series (+430)
Degen:
Celtics -1.5 games (+100)
Kyrie Finals MVP (+1000) — the ultimate hedge/revenge bet
Kristaps Rebounds Leader (+1000)
Jrue Holiday Assists Leader (+2000)
Jaylen Brown 3’s Leader (+2200)