We’ll keep this short and sweet, but wanted to get something out before tip off.
Round One of the NBA is typically a snooze-fest, but the later rounds should offer some real promise. We’ll be sending our NHL Round 1 Preview on Monday morning.
Before jumping in (we bring this up every year) there is a trend in the NBA playoffs worth noting. Certainly not a hill we are willing to die on, but definitely worth following that could both save you some coin on your losses and increase your payout on the wins. Only been tracking it for two years, but here it goes…
Keep it Simple: If the favorite wins, they cover. If the underdogs covers, they win
This can save you some serious juice for any of you favorite ML bettors out there. As for the underdog plays - you can risk less and win more by taking them outright. Quick breakdown of the trend:
2021 Games where the favorite won AND covered; or the dog won outright:
Round one: 41/43
Round two: 23/24 (1 push)
Conference Championship: 11/12
NBA Finals: 6/6
2022
Round one: 37/42 (1 push)
Round two: 23/26
Conference Championship: 12/12
NBA Finals: 6/6
tl;dr - 4 of 85 games in 2021 and 8 of 86 in 2022 had a team cover and not win outright.
Sure, it makes sense in later rounds as the spreads get tighter, but in round one, it’s not uncommon to see teams favored by 10+. So don’t be afraid to swing at some dogs on the ML, and save yourself some money on favorites by laying the number as opposed to laying the juice. Again, small sample size, but certainly worth noting as we head into the postseason.
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NBA Playoffs
THE WEST
(per @johnewing with BetMGM)
#1 Nuggets (-500) Vs #8 Timberwolves (+385)
The Nuggets struggled mightily down the stretch, but a good mix of that was due to them trying to make sure Jokic and the gang were well rested. But how much rest is too much rest? And will this team be able to wake up in time to actually make some noise in the playoffs? Stumbling into the playoffs is never a good sign, but maybe the T’Wolves can be a much needed wake up call…or maybe it’s already too late.
The Pick: Nuggets in 6
The Bets: No official bets, but we will definitely look for a spot for Minnesota to win one of the early games in Denver.
#2 Grizzlies (-140) vs. #7 Lakers (+125)
Probably the toughest series to call and the spread is not making it any easier. This one opened as a PK, but the line is getting steamed to the Grizzlies, despite the Lakers taking more bets. You know what that means!
The Pick: Grizzlies in 7
The Bets:
Grizzlies -140 (Jake & Degen), Grizzlies in 6 (+550 - Jake)
Series total games 7 +185 (Greg)
#3 Kings (+225) vs. #6 Warriors (-275)
Not very often you see a 6 seed with this much juice over the 3 seed, but these are the defending champions! To us, the Kings have trendy dog written all over them, and you know how we feel about trendy dogs. The two reasons are: Kings have the highest offensive rating (118.9) in NBA History, and the Warriors were 11-30 on the road (4th worst in NBA).
The Pick: Warriors in 5
The Bets:
Warrior in 5 +380 (Degen), Warriors GM 1 (+1.5) 2 Units
Warriors/Cavs Parlay to advance +100 (Greg)
#4 Suns (-500) vs. #5 Clippers (+350)
The Suns come in as the four seed, but they are the odds on favorite to win the West after the Durant acquisition. We absolutely believe that a time will come to fade this team in the playoffs, but this probably isn’t it. The Clippers have had their struggles all year long and missing Paul George in Round One isn’t going to help anything. We don’t expect the Clippers to roll over and die, look for a few games for them to make people remember they were supposed to win 50+ games this year.
The Pick: Suns in 6
The Bets: Clippers +2.5 Games -132 (Greg and Degen)
THE EAST
#1 Bucks (-1200) vs. #8 Heat (+750)
Because the Heat just clinched the 8 see last night it’s too early for any of the fun props, but this series should be over quickly. Maybe the Heat win one early, but don’t expect much excitement here.
The Pick: Bucks in 5
The Bets: None (Got our eye on Heat ML game 2 or 3)
#2 Celtics (-1200) vs #7 Hawks (+750)
Great big yawn part 2. Nothing to see here, and no real value on the lines from a series perspective. Maybe the Hawks can win one or two in Atlanta, but we’re not ready to make any bets yet.
The Pick: Celtics in 4
The Bet: None
#3 76ers (-1000) vs #6 Nets (+650)
Wow is the first round in the East going to be uneventful. Absolutely no value in any of these spots - BUT we do like the Nets to steal on early. Like…really early. Maybe even another one.
The Pick: 76ers in 6
The Bets:
Nets to win Game 1 +285 (Degen and Greg)
#4 Cavaliers (-205) vs. #5 Knicks (+170)
Okay, now we’ve got a matchup! There’s a decent amount of uncertainty around Julius Randle, but this Knicks team has a lot of guys who can step up. For us, this much juice to the Cavs signals that they should win it, but we don’t want to be too quick to discount the Knicks. They’re a fun team if Brunson is healthy and the Garden get’s rocking during the Playoffs. I think we can all agree that basketball is better when the Knicks are good. And for that, we will hope they make a run. Heart and wallet divided.
The Pick: Cavs in 6
The Bets: Warriors/Cavs Parlay to advance +100 (Greg)
Notable Futures:
76ers to Win Championship +1000 (Jake)
Bucks to Win Championship +440 (Greg)
Clippers to Win Championship +700 (Degen - LOL)
Nuggets to Win West +800 (Greg)
For day to day action make sure you are following us all on Twitter (@thedegenweekly; @steaakfriend, @greg_gogodino)
Best of luck to all your best in the postseason and we’ll check in on you in Round 2!