March Madness came and went. The Masters is over. Now, we tune in and turn up for the NBA & Staley Cup Playoffs.
Round One of the NBA can be a bore, but not this year. We’ve got some EXCELLENT matchups headed our way, so don’t sleep on the first round.
Before jumping in (we bring this up every year) there’s a trend in the NBA playoffs worth noting. Certainly not a hill we’re willing to die on, but definitely something to follow. Third year of tracking, but here it goes (again)…
Keep it Simple: If the favorite wins, they cover. If the underdogs cover, they win.
This can save you some serious juice for any of you favorite ML bettors out there. As for the underdog plays - you can risk less and win more by taking them outright. Quick breakdown of the trend over the years.
Games where the favorite won AND covered; or the dog won outright in the NBA Finals:
2021: 81/85 (1 push)
2022: 78/86 (1 push)
2023: 70/84
We’ll save you nerds the trouble - that’s 95%, 90%, and 83%. Not bad, although it’s gotten worse each year. We’ll still be looking to sprinkle the ML on the dog if it’s a play. To the Series Matchups we go!
2024 NBA Playoffs
THE WEST
#1 Thunder -650 Vs #8 Pelicans +440
The Thunder are a young team and ripe for an upset at the #1 Seed. But it’s not coming at the hands of the Pelicans, especially after the recent injury to Zion. OKC is making their first appearance so there will certainly be a time and place to fade them in one of the games in Nola, but thats as far as we’ll go. Degen has said they’re the Baltimore Orioles of the NBA. A good team that often doesn’t get line respect, and would suck in contrarians as ourselves to fade them. We’ve learned from our mistakes, but the playoffs are a different beast, and Baltimore did get swept…
The Pick: Thunder in 5
The Bets:
No official bets, but we will pick our spot to fade the Thunder
#2 Nuggets (-420) vs. #7 Lakers (+310)
This is a big number with a ton of respect to the defending Champs, but for good cause. We’re not sure who is stopping the Nuggets this year, but the head coach talked A LOT of trash after beating the Lakers last year and you can be damn sure that LA remembers every word of it.
Ultimately, the road to the NBA Finals has got to go through Denver. LeBron knows this and getting Denver early, before fatigue can set in, is honestly exactly where LA wants them. Last year the Nuggets swept the Lakers but we don’t think its that easy in 2024. Clearly, we all differ on the outcome… choose your path, but at the end of the day say Denver advances.
The Pick: Nuggets in 6
The Bets:
Nuggets 4-0 +440 (Degen)
Nuggets 4-2 +480 (Dino)
Nuggets 4-3 +410 (Steak)
#3 Timberwolves (+114) vs. #6 Suns (-140)
The preseason hype towards the Suns turned out to be just that as they narrowly escaped the Play-In Tournament in game 82. But now the new season starts. This series opened close to even, but as money poured in on the Suns we currently sit at Phoenix -140, a lot of respect for the six seed. As much as we want hammer the Suns here, we do feel like the T-Wolves are being a bit slept on and that they can certainly give Phoenix some problems. Degen says don’t fade the Wolves and is sitting out.
The Pick: Suns in 7
The Bets:
Suns -140 (Dino & Steak)
#4 Clippers (+110) vs. #5 Mavericks (-134)
In this house we are Mavericks guys this year. We all have a ticket Dallas to make a run. Some for the Finals, other just for the West. Just so you know that there is a bit of bias. The biggest storyline for this series is the health status of Kawhi, the rumor mill is running rampant on whether he will play or not and similarly the line for the series continues to fluctuate.
The Mavs had a generational crash and burn last year after adding Kyrie, but this year has been different. They have gone on several streaks where they look like one of the best teams in the NBA, the question is if they can put together when it matters most.
It’s impossible to speculate whats going on with Kawhi, but regardless we like this to be one of the better series of the first round and potentially go the distance for 7.
The Pick: Mavs in 7
The Bets:
Series Over 5.5 Games -195 (Degen)
Mavericks -134 (Dino)
Clippers +110 (Steak)
THE EAST
#1 Celtics vs. #8 Heat
It’s official - we get the Western Conference Final and Eastern Conference Final rematch in Round One. The problem is the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. We have a feeling the Celtics are going to be a buzzsaw, but we can absolutely see Spoelstra scheming up a way to get the Heat a couple of wins. Well, might look to ML play Miami as dog to push this one to 5. But with revenge on their mind and not having to face Jimmy we don’t expect too much here.
The Pick: Celtics in 4
The Bets:
Celtics in 4 -110 (Steak)
#2 Knicks (-110) vs #7 76ers (-110)
The 76ers are red hot after the return of Embiid and now they go to Madison Square Garden to face off against the Knicks.
The most “free” bet of the NBA Postseason feels like it’s the 76ers, but the series price keeps moving in the Knicks favor. Julius Randle will be missing the postseason, so it’s all on Brunson. We want to play the contrarian side and ride the Knicks, but this is another series we like to go the distance.
The Pick: Knicks in 7
The Bet:
Series Total Games 7 +220 (Dino)
76ers -110 (Steak)
#3 Bucks (+106) vs #6 Pacers(-132)
Another big series, another big star who is set to miss time. Giannis is injured, but he might be available later in the series. Which means if you want to back Milwaukee you gotta believe it’s Dame time.
The Pacers won the East for the in-season tournament (cool!) and certainly offer a ton of future promise, but they are a bit too trendy. We hate Doc Rivers more than anyone, but we don’t see the Bucks getting bounced in Round 1 in back to back seasons.
The Pick: Bucks in 6
The Bets:
Bucks win Series +106 (Steak and Dino) - FAVORITE BET
#4 Cavaliers (-205) vs. #5 Magic (+164)
We all grew up in the Orlando area. Steak has season tickets (true) and a dog named Stuff (false). Take this with a grain of salt. The Magic are building something special, but it still needs a couple seasons before they get there. This series will be huge for experience and every extra game they can squeeze out of it will pay dividends.
Orlando looked terrible down the stretch, but the game 82 win over the Bucks let them take a huge exhale and enjoy making the playoffs. Now the pressure is off and we think they can give the Cavs a series.
The Pick: Cavs in 6
The Bets:
Cavs Win 4-2 +480 (Dino)
Series to go 7 games +230 (Steak)
Notable Futures:
76ers to Win Championship (Steak)
Mavericks to Win West (SQUAD RIDE)
Celtics to Win East (Dino) and Celtics to Win Championship (Steak)
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Best of luck to all your best in the postseason and we’ll check in on you in Round 2!