After a longer than needed season (by about 10 games), the Playoffs are here. What an interesting slate story lines we have in store for Round One. Why the vaccine mandate in Canada can give the Raptors an advantage. How much Kyrie’s fasting for Ramadan will effect the Nets. What the Series odds are telling us about Luka and Steph. Should be fun!
Before jumping in, we want to touch on something we noticed in the Playoffs last year that’s worth keeping an eye on. We’ll keep this brief because it’s only one years worth of information, but it’s too powerful to ignore…
Keep it Simple: If the favorite wins, they cover. If the underdogs covers, they win
This can save you some serious juice for any of you favorite ML bettors out there. As for the underdog plays - you can risk less and win more by taking them outright. Quick breakdown of the trend:
2021 Games where the favorite won AND covered; or the dog won outright:
Round one: 41/43
Round two: 23/24 (1 push)
Conference Championship: 11/12
NBA Finals: 6/6
That is absurd! Only 4 games out of (grabs calculator) 85 had a game where a team won, but didn’t cover. Sure, it makes sense in later rounds as the spreads get tighter. But in round one, it’s not uncommon to see teams favored by 10+. Again, one year sample size, nothing is ever set in stone, but worth noting as the Playoffs get underway.
To the Series breakdowns we go!
THE WEST
#1 Suns Vs #8 Clippers/#9 Pelicans
The 8 seed in both Conferences won’t be determined till late tonight, so there isn’t too much to offer in terms of a pick (yet). However - if it’s the Clippers, we love ourselves a bit of revenge.
Last year everyone wrote the Clippers off when Kawhi went down, but they showed a ton of heart and put up a fight against the Suns. The Clippers lost in 6, but games 2 and 4 were TIGHT. Fast-forward through a (relatively) disappointing and injury packed regular season. We will likely have ourselves a couple of tasty spots to take the Clippers, but the Suns are advancing. There are some reports of Kawhi playing 3 on 3, but we don’t think anyone is really expecting him to suit up, and we think it will be apparent once Vegas sets a line.
The Pick: No line, so no pick, but will certainly have our eye on the Clippers to steal a game or two.
#2 Grizzlies (-320) vs. #7 Timberwolves (+260)
The Memphis Grizzlies are the most fun team in the NBA. Fun, and terrifying. Somehow they improved without star player Ja Morant, winning 20 of 24 games when he was injured. Oh and when he returned, they set a franchise record for most points scored (55) in a quarter.
The NBA ratings are at an all time low. I’ll admit, it’s getting tough to watch, despite all the star power…but I think the Grizzlies might be able to save basketball. We can have that conversation another time! For now, let’s make some money on them.
Quick tip of the cap to the Minnesota Timberwolves. They beat the Clippers in the play in game to advance to the playoffs for just the 2nd time in the last 17 years. The Wolves celebrated like they won the championship, and were getting criticized by the “act like you’ve been there before” crowd on Twitter.
Fuck that! I say let them party.
…okay, parties over.
The Grizzlies are heavy favorites in this series, but it’s not scaring us off. We’re going to lay it on Memphis to advance, and we even like taking our chances with the Grizzlies to win the West. Can the Suns be stopped? Probably not. But it is so much fun pulling for Memphis.
The Pick: Grizzlies in 5
The Bets:
Grizzlies -320
Grizzlies to win the West +700
#3 Warriors (-250) vs. #6 Nuggets (+205)
The Warriors were in a bit of a tailspin after Steph’s foot injury, but they managed to finish strong and win 5 in a row to end the season. The Nuggets continue to push along despite losing Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. as both guys are “unlikely” to make a postseason appearance. Jokic has put the Nuggets on his back and carried them to the postseason. It would appear he’s going to get rewarded with the MVP, as he’s now the heavy favorite at -275. Honestly, that’s still a pretty cheap price, because he’s a lock. If you can still find a line, we suggest taking it. Anywho…
We think the Warriors eventually advance, but where’s the fun in that at -250? This series has the potential to be a dog fight, and we’re going to lean into it on the basis that the Nuggets are scrappier than people give them credit for.
Listen up because this part is important: There will come a time in this series that Golden State is going to go off. We’re talking 2017 Klay and Steph hitting 15 3’s and they win by 30. Don’t be fooled - this is a good team, but it’s not that team. When it happens, be prepared to get your hammer out and take the Nuggets the next game.
The Pick: Warriors in 7
The Bets:
Series Spread Nuggets +1.5 (-115)
Series Total: 7 Games (+200); Bonus Warriors in 7 (+300)
#4 Mavericks (+245) vs. #5 Jazz (-300)
There is one storyline in this series that matters, and it’s Luka’s strained calf. Word on the street is he’s likely out games 1 and 2 at minimum, although the line on this series is screaming that he might not play at all. Absolutely gutting for him to suffer an injury in game 82 of the regular season when this team had some real promise to make a run (especially if you took Mavs to win the West back in February like we did :/)
If you’ve read our newsletter then you know our golden rule: Seek simplicity and distrust? No, not that one…the other golden rule! Buy bad news, sell good news. Not excited about it, because Luka really is that important, but let’s sprinkle some love on the Mavs in this spot and pray some acupuncturist in Dallas can save the day.
Now, this is a bit contradicting, because the Jazz are also in a “bad news” spot. Why? Because they’ve been a disaster down the stretch. All the reports are that Donovan Mitchell is guaranteed to leave the team (Knicks?), nobody likes Rudy Gobert and the coach has lost the locker room. The Jazz blew 14 double digit leads this year.
The unfortunate truth is that Vegas setting this line at Utah -300 says the Jazz probably advance with ease, and Luka misses the majority of the series. Or if he does show up, he’s nowhere near 100%. But we are betting with our heart, not with our head. The Jazz at that number is a pill we don’t want to swallow.
The Pick: Mavs in 7
The Bet: Mavs to win Series +245 (Small play - .5 unit)
THE EAST
#1 Heat vs. #8 Cavs/#9 Hawks
Pains us to say it but there isn’t a sole outside of Cleveland that won’t have a ticket on the Hawks to win tonights play in game and advance to play the Heat. If you’re a real contrarian, you’re taking the Cavs.
Trendy Trae Young - we love this guy, and clearly everyone else does too. Cavs are no pushover, but everyone thinks they are. Nothing to love more than a team in the playoffs with a chip on their shoulder.
If the Hawks advance: Heat in 5
If the Cavs advance: Heat in 6
#2 Celtics (-140) vs #7 Nets (+120)
Hard to believe the Nets find themselves not only as a 7 seed, but as an underdog in a first round playoff series. It’s been a very bizarre season. The Harden trade didn’t work out, Durant got hurt, and Kyrie was unable to play a majority of their home games due to NYC’s vaccine mandate. The Nets beat the Cavs in a play-in game to secure their playoff bid. Now they’re matched up against arguably the hottest team in the NBA since the All-Star break.
Boston was absolutely rolling since mid-January. They were 21-22 after a disappointing start to the season, but finished with a 30-9 record. Tatum and Brown have been a superstar duo, Marcus Smart won DPOY, their defense was statistically the best of any team we’d ever seen…and then Robert Williams got hurt. The earth stood still in Boston as the big man went down with a meniscus injury. Shockingly, he’s expected to make a fairly quick return.
Call us chumps, but we aren’t fading Kevin Durant. No way, no how. Kyrie is no slouch either…but there’s one problem. A big fucking problem - he’s fasting!
*Googles Ramadan* Muslims are to refrain from drinking water or any other liquid, and eating food.
No food isn’t a huge deal, but no water is insane. Flashbacks to early 2000 high-school football practice: “Water’s for the weak!”. This only applies before sundown. We checked the schedule, and as of now Game’s 1 and 3 are day games, so we’ll find out early if this is going to be an issue for Brooklyn.
We aren’t expecting Ben Simmons to save the day either. It’s literally KD vs the Celtics, and we are going with the Slim Reaper (coolest nickname in sports? Yes).
The Pick: Nets in 6
The Bet: Nets +1.5 games -190 (FanDuel)
#3 Bucks (-1100) vs #6 Bulls (+700)
Going to keep this one short and sweet. Not sure there’s ever been a 3 seed favored this heavily to win a series. That’s a testament to how soft the Bulls are. I (Brandon) am a Magic fan, and know all too well what Nikola Vucevic can do to a team. Nice guy, nice player, but S-O-F-T!
However, if there is anything Vuc has taught me, it’s that the Bulls will win game 1 of this series. In 2019 the Orlando Magic took game 1 in Toronto against the Raptors, and then got their asses kicked losing the series 4-1. That was the same year the Raptors had Kawhi and won the Championship, too. History shall repeat itself!
The Pick: Bucks in 5
The Bets:
Bulls Game 1 +10 and ML +350
Bucks 4-1 +165 (FanDuel)
#4 76ers (-180) vs. #5 Raptors (+150)
Maybe the most difficult series pick of them all. It’s tricky for a few reasons.
Reason #1: The vaccine mandate in Toronto. Matisse Thybulle will miss games 3, 4 and 6 (if needed) in this series. Which likely explains why the line is so fishy.
Reason #2: Every Joe public knows Philly has 10x more talent and expects them to handle the Raptors with ease.
Reason #3: Every single sharp is on the Raptors. Seriously, everyone on VSIN, everyone we follow on Twitter - they are in 100% alignment, which always makes us a little apprehensive.
This is truly the Pros vs. Joes spot, but the respected bettors are too united for us to hammer. Regardless, we are siding with the Pros. Don’t love it. It’s not a 10 unit Mega Whale Play (hehe). Drake has been too quiet and Doc Rivers is ass. We’ll pay one ticket for the ride.
The Pick: Raptors in 6
The Bet: Raptors to win Series +150 (1 unit)