NCAA Baseball Season Postseason
A Little Help From Our Friends
We’ve made it to summer! It’s the dog days, but we’re still over here daily grinding MLB. Nevertheless, some of our loyal followers have informed us that the College Baseball Postseason starts tomorrow. Nobody in the Degen fam knows a damn thing about it, but these guys sure do. So we took them up on their offer to do a write up on a preview of it. People helping people - that’s what we are all about. Enjoy!
Welcome to the College Baseball Postseason Newsletter, written by @CrutchBets and @DeltaDimes. You can find us both on Twitter and in the free DegenWeekly discord in the NCAA Baseball channel. We understand that many people have never followed college baseball and aren’t familiar with the format of the postseason so we just wanted to start by going over how the tournament works and some things to keep in mind.
It is a field of 64 teams and just like college basketball, it is comprised of conference winners and at-large teams. The top 16 teams in the country are assigned as “Regional Hosts”. Each top 16 team will be assigned 3 other teams for their regional, creating 16 groups of 4 teams. In each regional, teams are assigned seeds 1-4. It is a double elimination bracket in each regional, with 1v4, 2v3, winner G1 vs winner G2, etc etc until only 1 team emerges from each regional. These regionals are paired together based on the 1-16 seedings of their hosts, so the Knoxville regional with #1 overall seed Tennessee, is paired with the Greenville regional which has #16 seed East Carolina. When the 16 winners of regionals are decided, we move on to the Super Regionals, where the paired up regional winners will play a best 2 out of 3 series to advance to the College World Series in Omaha.
These super regionals are played at the home of the higher seed, thus the top 8 seeds are named National Hosts, because they will host twice, provided they come out of their regional a winner. In the event the host of a regional does not win, the lower seed will most likely travel to their opponent in a super, unless paired with an equally low seed in which case it goes to the NCAA. (eg both 2 seeds in paired regionals win, the NCAA decides who hosts the Super Regional, but if a 2 seed is paired with a 3 seed, the 2 seed would host). Once the final 8 teams have advanced through the super regionals, we are on to Omaha.
The 8 teams will once again be divided into 2 pools of 4 teams and they will play another double elimination bracket. The two pool winners advance to the College World Series finals, where it will be a final best 2 out of 3 to determine a national champion. It is a very long and grueling road to get to, and win a national championship. It takes the right mix of pitching, timely hitting, guts, and a whole lot of luck to go all the way, and there are sure to be many twists and turns along the way. We both agree that this tournament leads to some of the most electric moments in all of sports as teams experience the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.
We look forward to having you along for the ride and if you are watching or following along throughout the tournament and have questions or want to learn more, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either of us on Twitter or in discord!
1. Knoxville Regional
Tennessee (50-11, SEC 22-8,Q1-2 29-10, RPI 1, SOS 23)
Notables: SEC Reg season/tournament champs, series win vs #7 UGA, swept LSU, series win @ #2 Kentucky
Southern Miss (41-18, Sun Belt 20-10, Q1-2 19-12, RPI 26, SOS 46)
Notables: Have made back to back super regionals in ‘22/’23, 8 years in a row with 40 wins, nation’s longest active streak
Indiana (32-24-1, Big 10 15-9, Q1+2 12-14, RPI 55 SOS 39)
Notables: win vs Coastal Carolina, win vs #25 DBU, win vs #20 Indiana St
Northern Kentucky (33-22, Horizon 19-11, Q1-2 2-8, RPI 149, SOS 269)
Notables:5th in D1 in runs scored, 6th in batting average, 20th in doubles, 13th in slg %
The Vols were the outright regular season and tournament champions of the SEC, only dropping one conference series all year. They have an explosive offense that hit the most home runs and finished 2nd in slugging % in all of D1, led by Christian Moore (28 HR 63 RBI 94 H).The Vols also boast a top 5 team ERA, 2nd in the country in runs allowed per game, and top 15 in Ks. USM is led by its pitching staff which is one of the deeper midmajor staffs in the country.They finished the year with a cumulative 1.40 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Indiana had a solid year finishing 3rd in the regular season in the Big10. They don’t do anything special and would not be surprised if they have a quiet exit in Knoxville. Northern Kentucky is a 4 seed we both would like to cause trouble in pretty much any other regional, but when paired with Tennessee and Southern Miss, their offense-first mentality probably just won’t be enough, despite scoring 15+ runs in 12 games this year. When it comes down to it, that Tennessee bullpen is about as deep as they come, and USM likely won’t have the offensive firepower to tango with the Vols in Knoxville. Therefore -300 isn’t worth the juice for us.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: none (but SMTTT)
CrutchBets: none
2. Lexington Regional
Kentucky (40-14, SEC 22-8, Q1-2: 28-11, RPI 3, SOS 6)
Notables: swept #7, UGA, series win vs #5 Arkansas
Indiana St (42-13, MVC 22-5, Q1-2 10-8, RPI 10, SOS 75)
Notables: top 5 in weekend ERA, top 10 in K/9, snubbed from hosting and will be dangerous
Illinois (34-19, Big10 18-6, Q1+2 9-12, RPI 48, SOS 73)
Notables: Big10 reg season champs, 27th in slg%
Western Michigan (31-21, MAC 19-11, Q1-2 3-5, RPI 128, SOS 225)
Notables: MAC tournament champs, have scored 10+ runs in L4 games
Kentucky surprised a lot of people with their dominance in the SEC this year, culminating in their series win over an elite Arkansas team. Kentucky doesn’t have any one single strength, but they hit for average and power, pitch at a level that makes them competitive against anyone, and always seem to find that timely hit. The one stat Kentucky stands out in, is stolen bases, where they are top 20 in the country. Pressure on the basepaths forces mental errors from the opponent and in an already stressful postseason, could be all the difference. Indiana St had another great season dominating in the Missouri Valley Conference and is a historical mid-major powerhouse who was in contention to host as a top 16 team. They are hitting better this year than in years past, but the hallmark of this program will always be its pitching which keeps them in low scoring competitive affairs. They have often struggled vs other tournament teams and with a bullpen that struggled in the OVC tournament, that very well may become their Achilles heel at Kentucky Proud Park. The Lexington regional also draws the Big10 regular season champs in Illinois and MAC champ of Western Michigan. We both see the Wildcats holding serve but this market has moved north of -155 on most books. Best number is on Draft Kings.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Kentucky -155 (DraftKings)
CrutchBets: no play
3. Bryan-College Station Regional
Texas A&M (44-13, SEC 19-11, Q1+2 22-13, RPI 2, SOS 13)
Notables: 25-0 non conference record, series wins vs #5 Arkansas, #7 Georgia, #17 Miss St
Louisiana Lafayette (40-18, Sun Belt: 23-7, Q1-2 12-10, RPI 38, SOS 64)
Notables: one of 7 clubs with 20+ saves, top 25 in runs allowed, top 20 in team ERA
Texas (35-22, B12 20-10, Q1-2 17-13, RPI 47, SOS 29)
Notables: 2nd in Big12, top 50 team ERA, 17th total HR, 22nd in SLG%
Grambling State (25-26, SWAC 18-8, Q1-2 0-7, RPI 235, SOS 274)
Notables: 0 wins in D1 outside of SWAC play, run-ruled by all P5 opponents
Texas A&M is an electric factory. If you’ve never watched a game at Blue Bell Park, we highly recommend you tune in to watch the 12th man help opposing pitchers count the balls they’ve thrown when they walk batters and make College Station a truly uncomfortable place to be a road team. A&M was in contention as a top 5 team all season and are looking to continue that run with an unbeaten record outside of SEC play. The 2 seed Ragin Cajuns rely heavily on one of the elite pitching staffs in the country, and while Ryan Prager of Texas A&M is the best pitcher in this regional, we feel the Cajun staff is the deepest top to bottom. Texas had an average year in the Big 12 which was probably a let down to a lot of their fans who thought this team would have a better year. If Lebarron Johnson Jr can steal a game for the ‘Horns, Texas could make this regional a little more exciting. Grambling State is here to collect some per diem and enjoy the vibes of the postseason as they are wildly outmatched by their competition. They also got matching “Hell Baby” tats according to the team twitter @ GramSt_Bsb . Worth a look. The host Aggies opened at -125 and are up to -200 on DraftKings for the best odds available.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Texas A&M -200
CrutchBets: playing the value on Louisiana +490. The arms are good enough to take a shot at 5/1.
4. Chapel Hill Regional
North Carolina (42-13, ACC 22-8, Q1-2: 14-12, RPI 4, SOS 15)
Notables: ACC reg season champs, 32-2 @ home, sweep @ Wake Forest
LSU (40-21, SEC 13-17, Q1-2 22-19, RPI 23, SOS 16)
Notables: defending National Champs, series win vs #3 Texas A&M
Wofford 41-18 Southern 12-8 Q1+2 6-5 RPI 46 SOS 119
Notables: Southern Conference champs, 3rd in Hits/batting avg, 2nd in runs scored
Long Island 33-23 NEC 24-9 Q1+2 1-4 RPI 196 SOS 292
Notables: NEC Champs, win over Miami (FL)
This region will be one of the most talked about with two titans in North Carolina and LSU. North Carolina is a monster at home and dominated a loaded ACC in the regular season. LSU had a tough regular season, going 13-17, but got hot in the SEC tournament making it all the way to the SEC title game. The sleeper in this regional is Wofford, who’s Friday ace Zack Cowan, 3.55 ERA and 118 K’s in 104 IP, has a funky delivery that could be enough to throw the Tigers offense off in the regional opener. While they may not have the depth to contend to win the regional, I think they will be a heavy underdog in G3 coming out of the loser’s bracket and could outslug someone to cause an upset. UNC and LSU are both built similarly with great offenses, each team with over 100 HR’s this year, 2 very good starting pitchers, but toothpick thin bullpens. Having to win 3 games (4 if you lose one) to make it out of the regional, it will become a slugfest among these two on Sunday to take it home. With 2 heavy favorites at -110 and +110 respectively, this is a playable region if you find a matchup you like:
Plays:
DeltaDimes: No plays
CrutchBets: UNC -110 or nothing but probably just playing ML’s game to game
5. Fayetteville Regional
Arkansas (43-14, SEC 20-10, Q1-2 21-14, RPI 5, SOS 11)
Notables: 5 weeks at #1, #1 as a team in ERA, WHIP, and K/9
Louisiana Tech (45-17, CUSA 18-6, Q1-2 12-12, RPI 29, SOS 82)
Notables: top 5 in saves, top 5 in hits,
Kansas State 32-24 Big12 15-15 Q1+2 13-20 RPI 45 SOS 30
Notables: bubble team that snuck in
Southeast Missouri State (SEMO) (34-25, OVC 18-9, Q1-2 2-4, RPI 132, SOS 192)
Notables: Ohio Valley Champion
Arkansas has been one of the most dominant teams all year. They have the best pitcher in the country in Hagen Smith and have mowed down every offense they’ve faced. You would think they should run through this regional, HOWEVER, their offense has not figured it out this year. They seriously struggle to create run support for their arms and in the stresses of the postseason, a couple bad pitches is the difference between winning and losing when you don’t have an offense putting up runs for you. La Tech doesn’t have the top end arm talent Arkansas does, but they do have a much more inspiring offense that is currently red hot along with national saves leader, Ethan Bates, the everyday 2B dubbed “Country Ohtani”, at the back end of their bullpen. Arkansas can’t afford to not make it out of this regional, but Crutch sees some value in the Diamond Dawgs of La Tech to maybe spoil the Hog Party.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: No Play
CrutchBets: Sprinkling on La Tech +450
6. Clemson Regional
Clemson (41-14, ACC 20-10, RPI 7, SOS 18)
Notables: series win vs Duke, sweep vs FSU
Vanderbilt (38-21, SEC 13-17, Q1-2 16-18, RPI 20, SOS 12)
Notables: SEC Tournament semifinalist
Coastal Carolina (34-23, Sun Belt 16-14, Q1+2 11-16, RPI 36, SOS 22)
Notables: top 15 in runs/game
High Point (34-25, BigSouth 17-7, Q1-2 3-8, RPI 122, SOS 164)
Notables: Big South Champion, Program’s 1st ever tournament
The Cardiac Cats are hosting a very dangerous regional that should be a lot of fun. Of their 41 wins, 24 of Clemson’s wins were in come from behind fashion. While having the clutch gene is important come June, you can’t be reliant on it. Is it the sign of a poor team who gets lucky? Or a good team who makes their luck? If you’re looking elsewhere in the regional, Vanderbilt is an attractive option with a deep pitching staff that booms with arm talent and lights up radar guns. Tim Corbin makes a habit of having the ‘Dores ready come this time of year. Winning is a tradition and tradition doesn’t graduate. Coastal Carolina is a postseason darling every year but they carry some serious holes this year, namely their pitching. Their offense can be explosive but was heavily reliant on their home ballpark being one of the friendliest hitters parks in the country. However, Clemson hasn’t made it out of their last 6 home regionals, all the way back since 2010, but this could be the year they slug their way to it.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Vanderbilt +175
CrutchBets: Vanderbilt +175
7. Athens Regional
Georgia (39-15, SEC 17-13, RPI 6, SOS 9)
Notables: #3 HR team in country, have single season HR record holder
UNC Wilmington (39-19, CAA 20-7, Q1-2 12-10, RPI 34, SOS 56)
Notables: CAA Champion, top 25 ERA
Georgia Tech (31-23, ACC 15-15, Q1+2 14-17, RPI 49, SOS 24)
Top 35 offense
Army (31-21, Patriot 16-8, Q1-2 3-4, RPI 124, SOS 191)
Notables: 7 straight Patriot League titles
Bombs away in this regional with some of the best power hitters in college baseball being featured in Athens. Charlie Condon of Georgia owns the single season HR record with 35 so far this year. Drew Burress of Georgia Tech has 23 HR and Tanner Thatch of UNCW has 27 HR. Safe to say we expect some runs to cross the plate in this regional. We would lean Georgia to advance but anything can happen when the launchpad is in full effect.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Sprinkle on Georgia Tech +310
CrutchBets: looking for overs game by game
8. Tallahassee Regional
Florida State (42-15, ACC 17-12, Q1-2 16-13, RPI 8, SOS 26)
Notables: series win @ Duke, ACC tourney finalist)
Alabama (33-22, SEC 13-17, Q1-2 17-20, RPI 24, SOS 8)
Notables: series win vs Tenn week 1, series win vs #5 Arkansas, series win vs #24 LSU
UCF (35-19, Big12 14-15, Q1+2 13-13, RPI 33, SOS 42)
Notables: top 25 team ERA
Stetson (40-20, ASUN 20-10, Q1-2 5-6, RPI 100, SOS 198)
Notables: ASUN Champion
Rumor has it Florida State is getting Cam Leiter back for regionals as he has been building back with bullpens and live ABs. If this is true and they have their 1-2 punch on the mound with him and Jamie Arnold, they will be a formidable host. Alabama is a solid SEC team with some impressive series wins under their belt, however they look like a fraction of the team that won a series vs Tennessee in their current form. UCF is an underrated Big12 team that has held their own since the move up to a power conference, led by two very good starting pitchers in Dom Stagliano and Ben Vespi. Stetson is arguably the best 4 seed and the only one with 40 wins. FSU has not said whether they will pitch Ace Jamie Arnold game one or two, but if they choose to save him, Stetson could very easily send the Noles into the losers bracket early. Stetson split home and home series with WV, FSU, UCF, and Florida, making them one of the most dangerous 4 seeds in the bracket.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Florida State -110
CrutchBets: Sprinkling on Stetson +1300
9. Norman Regional
Oklahoma (37-19, B12 23-7, Q1-2 23-13, RPI 14, SOS 10)
Notables: Big 12 reg season champs, Big12 tournament finalist
Duke (39-18, ACC 16-14, Q1-2 20-15, RPI 16, SOS 21)
Notables: Top 10 K/9, top 25 team ERA, ACC Tournament Champs
UConn (32-23, Big East 17-4, Q1-2 10-17, RPI 41 SOS 47)
Notables: Big East Regular Season Champs
Oral Roberts (27-30-1, Summit 13-15-1, Q1-2 2-4, RPI 266, SOS 181)
Notables: Summit League Champs, Made it to Omaha in 2023
This region is all about Duke for us. Oklahoma had a great year, but Duke is the best 2 seed in the bracket when compared across all major metrics. I think the best way to describe OU is that they do nothing bad, but nothing great. They’re consistently good but will not overly impress you anywhere on the field. With a strong rotation led by Jon Santucci who’s had a couple weeks off with an ab strain, and arguably the best bullpen in the country, led by Charlie Beilenson, Duke is poised to be a dangerous foe for anyone they encounter. UConn is a perennial contender out of the northeast, but this is probably Coach Penders weakest group as of recent. Oral Roberts made a Cinderella run last year all the way to Omaha before falling, but this year struggled mightily at times. They got hot at the right time and are back in a regional, but we wouldn’t expect the shoe to fit at midnight again.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Duke +100
CrutchBets: Duke +100
10. Raleigh Regional
North Carolina State (33-20, ACC 18-11, Q1-2 16-17, RPI 15, SOS 3)
Notables: series wins vs Duke, @ #6 Clemson, vs #4 UNC, vs #12 UVA, swept WF
South Carolina (36-23, SEC 13-17, Q1-2 18-21, RPI 21, SOS 5)
Notables: swept final two series of year and got hot in SEC tourney, wins over Arkansas and Kentucky
James Madison (34-23, Sun Belt 17-13, Q1+2 11-17, RPI 44, SOS 41)
Notables: non conference SOS 5
Bryant (36-19, America East 17-7, Q1-2 1-8, RPI 115, SOS 264)
Notables: America East Champs
NC St sneakily had one of the better runs in the ACC this year. They own series wins over 3 other hosts as well as two of the best 2 seeds in the bracket. Their offense has been great all year, led by the active NCAA Leader in career games played, Alex Makarewich. But, it’s their pitching staff that has really blossomed down the stretch with a lot of Freshman arms stepping up late. South Carolina will be popular after they made a run in the SEC tournament and are prime for a let down, in our opinion. There are two other dangerous teams in the regional with James Madison and Bryant as well. James Madison tested themselves throughout the year playing a top 5 non conference SOS. Bryant is a team of veterans that are no stranger to regional play and has one of the oldest pitching staffs in the country with their top 7 usage guys having an average age over 25.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: NC State +125
CrutchBets: NC St +125
11. Stillwater Regional
Oklahoma State (40-17, B12 19-9, Q1-2 20-15, RPI 11, SOS 28)
Notables: Big 12 tournament champs, series win & non-conference win vs Oklahoma
Nebraska (39-20, B10 16-8, Q1-2 18-13, RPI 28, SOS 38)
Notables: Big10 tourney champs
Florida (28-27, SEC 13-17, Q1+2 15-24, RPI 30 SOS 1)
Notables: 2023 CWS Finalist, series wins vs #14 Miss St, #24 LSU, #7 Georgia
Niagara (38-15, MAAC 20-4, Q1-2 2-3, RPI 103, SOS 288)
Notables: MAAC Champs, first tournament appearance
Oklahoma St might be the 1 seed no one is talking about and we both love them to make a run to supers and maybe even Omaha with the right matchup. HOWEVER, they’ve got some problems in their regional to handle first. Nebraska is a solid team with a true ace in Sears, and Florida has all the talent in the world but haven’t executed consistently this year. Wouldn’t it be the most Florida thing to get hot in a regional and go on a run when everyone’s counted them out all year? Nebraska has no bullets left in the chamber after Sears, so even a game 1 win vs Florida likely won’t amount to much come Sunday. Florida is in a similar boat except with no true ace. Who is on the mound might not matter in the end because O’Brate Stadium in Stillwater is the definition of a launching pad and expect the Florida Gators and OK State Cowboys offense to put up some video games numbers this weekend.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Oklahoma St -125
CrutchBets: Oklahoma St -125
12. Charlottesville Regional
Virginia (41-15, ACC 18-12, RPI 12, SOS 27)
Notables: top 3 in total offense, series win vs #19 WF, series win vs #4 UNC
Mississippi State (38-21, SEC 17-13, Q1-2 20-15, RPI 25, SOS 14)
Notables: top 15 team ERA, top 5 fielding %, series win vs #24 LSU, @ Vanderbilt
St. John’s (37-16-1, Big East 14-7, Q1-2 10-8, RPI 51, SOS 124)
Notables: Big East tournament champs, Win over Florida
Pennsylvania (24-23, IVY 11-10, Q1-2 2-4, RPI 180, SOS 248)
Notables: Back to back Ivy League champs, upset Auburn in regional last year
This is going to be fun. The two favorites are two teams with extremely contrasting styles of play, UVA had one of the worst pitching staffs in the Power 5, but led the ACC in batting average while blasting 110 homeruns. Miss St stumbled out of the blocks but has risen to being one of the best teams in the SEC at this moment with a truly dominant pitching staff in Khal Stephen, Jurrangelo Cjintje and possibly a return of Nate Dohm. St John’s is on a legacy run to win the Big East and get to a regional and will be ready to play ball with anyone. Their pitching staff has posed some impressive numbers, but how that translates beyond the Big East is the question. Penn won’t be stunned by the bright lights either, the #QuakeShow beat Auburn in the 1 vs 4 game in the Auburn regional last year, and with returning a large group of that team, they are more than prepared to pull a major upset.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Mississippi St +125
CrutchBets: Mississippi St +125
13. Tucson Regional
Arizona (36-21, P12 20-10, Q1-2 18-14, RPI 31, SOS 31)
Notables: Pac 12 reg season and tourney champ, #1 pitching staff in walks allowed
Dallas Baptist (44-13, C-USA 17-7, Q1-2 14-11, RPI 17, SOS 79)
Notables: C-USA Tournament Champs, Top 15 in offensive HR, top 10 in team ERA, top 3 in wins
West Virginia (33-22, B12 19-22, Q1-2 18-16, RPI 37, SOS 43)
Notables: 4th in Big 12
Grand Canyon (34-23, WAC 23-7, Q1-2 6-10, RPI 96, SOS 143)
Notables: WAC Regular Season Champs
Hats off to Arizona, winning the final Pac 12 regular season and conference tournament titles. They get a very capable Dallas Baptist team. Crutch has been on the Dallas Baptist bandwagon all year, betting them almost every time that lines are available. DBU, led by ace and likely 1st rounder Ryan Johnson, will have to deal with JJ Wetherholt and a decent WV offense in game 1 if they want to contend to win in Tucson. Grand Canyon is also a 4 seed who has beaten Arizona 2 out of 3 in midweek games, including a 24-8 thrashing back on April 30th at Hi-Corbett Field, where the Wildcats will be hosting the regional. Arizona is the only team in this regional who has 3 starting pitchers worth mentioning in Kent, Candiotti, and Walty, which should give them an advantage, but I would not be surprised to see any of these 4 make it out of Tucson. DBU and Arizona are both at +175 on DK currently, with WVU and GCU at +330 and +650, respectively.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: I just hope everyone has fun
CrutchBets: Dallas Baptist +175
14. Santa Barbara Regional
UCalifornia - Santa Barbara (42-12, Big West 26-4, Q1-2 11-7, RPI 13, SOS 100)
Notables: Big West Champs, Top 25 in saves, top 5 ER allowed, top 10 team ERA
San Diego (40-13, WCC 20-4, Q1-2 10-11, RPI 19, SOS 90)
Notables: WCC Champs, Top 25 Team ERA, WHIP, Hits Allowed
Oregon (37-18, Pac 12 19-11, Q1-2 11-8, RPI 52, SOS 87)
Notables: Top 50 Team ERA, 3rd in Pac 12
Fresno State (33-27, MW 16-14, Q1-2 2-5, RPI 182, SOS 255)
Notables: Mountain West Champs
In this regional, we see 3 blue blood mid major programs in UCSB, U San Diego, and Fresno St, and then a solid Pac 12 team that was just off the pace of the top 2 in the conference. UCSB can pitch with anybody despite Matt Agar having an off year and getting yanked from the rotation. San Diego had a dominant regular season also eclipsing 40 wins and will be right there in contention. Crutch’s pick will be a value pick in the Oregon Ducks at over 3/1 as many view the Pac 12 as a 2 team conference. For DeltaDimes, I am normally one to always go for the underdogs and I do respect the great pitching staff UCSB has built, but I think the offense of Oregon will come through as the weekend goes on.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Oregon +325
CrutchBets: Oregon +325
15. Corvallis Regional
Oregon State (42-14, P12 19-10, Q1-2 8-9, RPI 18, SOS 78
Notables: series win vs AZ, 24-2 @ home
UC Irvine (43-12, BigWest 22-8, Q1-2 10-3, RPI 27, SOS 109)
Notables: top 30 pitching staff
Nicholls (34-20, Southland 16-8, Q1-2 1-11, RPI 61, SOS 96)
Notables: Southland Champ, went to regional last year and made noise- could scare a host asleep at the wheel
Tulane (35-24, AAC 15-12, Q1-2 7-8, RPI 86, SOS 98)
Notables: series win vs #16 ECU
Now while UC Irvine, Nicholls, and Tulane are all capable midmajor programs, Oregon St plays their best ball in Corvallis. Nicholls and Tulane are traveling from Louisiana and we think that will be to their detriment. UC Irvine can pitch enough to compete, but their bats are not at the caliber of Oregon State. Oregon State is truly a different team inside and out of Corvallis, so we see no reason to fade the Beavs at home and like them to advance. Keep an eye on Nicholls State ace Jacob Mayers who has an electric arm, tallying 105 K in 69 IP with a 4.28 ERA, however he’s also walked 75. If he’s on, then Nicholls could upset Irvine in Game 1.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Oregon St -115
CrutchBets: no play
16. Greenville Regional
East Carolina (43-15, American 19-8, Q1-2 11-9, RPI 22, SOS 71
Notables: series win vs UNC, AAC reg season champs
Wake Forest (38-20, ACC 15-15, RPI 9, SOS 7)
Notables: CWS Semi-Finalist 2023, Swept #6 Clemson
Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) (37-21, A10 15-8, Q1-2 5-8, RPI 75, SOS 130)
Notables: A-10 Champs
Evansville (35-23, MVC 17-10, Q1-2 4-11, 76 RPI, 118 SOS)
Notables: MVC Champs
ECU is at their best with their ace Trey Yesavage on the mound and they should be getting him back for regionals after a partially collapsed lung kept him out of the AAC tournament, where ECU floundered. Backing Yesavage up is his co-star Zach Root who is the Robin to Yesavage’s Batman. Root is also returning from a more minor injury and looked solid during the conference tournament. Their All American closer Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman also returned from an injury a few weeks ago and has not been the same since. If you see the trend, this pitching staff has been banged up and not performing as of late. Fully healthy, ECU is a top 10 team in the country, but with the injuries they’re having, we have a hard time betting on their momentum to change so suddenly and especially against a team with the caliber of Wake Forest. They can mount massive comebacks vs Rice or Wichita St, but not if Chase Burns is on the bump against them. The 2 seed in the regional is Wake Forest and their electric RHP star Chase Burns. Consistently pumping strikes at well over 100 mph and celebrating his strikeouts accordingly, he is a showman and a true horse you want to hitch your wagon to. Wake also relies on a veteran #2 starter in Josh Hartle who was instrumental in their CWS run a year ago. Perhaps the boogeyman of this regional is Wake Forest 1B Nick Kurtz. His moonshot homeruns break scoreboards and set off car alarms. We expect him to keep “The Jungle” busy with homerun balls this weekend. Evansville is a veteran team and VCU has a few offensive pieces, but unfortunately not enough to compete in our eyes. A Yesavage vs Burns matchup would be appointment television, but ultimately we like Wake Forest to advance.
Plays:
DeltaDimes: Wake Forest -125
CrutchBets: Wake Forest -125