It might seem like an eternity away, but one month from now we will be less than one month away from opening kickoff. We know you’re itching for some content so we wanted to start our preseason write-ups a bit earlier this year and make them a little more digestible.
One division every week. Read it, delete it, skim to the bottom to just see our picks - who cares. Just getting some NFL news in your inbox should be enough of a jolt to start getting you fired up about football.
In a few weeks we’ll start to layer in some futures on college football.
Enjoy!
A Quick Thank You:
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NFC East:
Divisions played: AFC West and NFC North
Odds to win division:
Eagles -135
Commanders +220
Cowboys +500
Giants +2400
Dallas Cowboys
2024 Record: 7-10
2024 Win Total: 7.5 (-125)
SB Odds: +4700
We start our preseason futures journey in Dallas. Where, like Jerry Jones, we aren’t exactly sure what’s going on.
Quick Trivia: Which QB has the biggest cap hit to their team in 2025?
Answer: Dak Prescott
The Cowboys are taking a big bet on Dak being a franchise QB, and it doesn’t feel like it’s going to end well. This year his new contract goes into full effect - 4 years/$240 million. When all is said and done it won’t be surprising if the Cowboys end up paying a quarter of a billion dollars per playoff win. But we’ll come back to Dak later.
Mike McCarthy looks like he ate Andy Reid, and the good news for Dallas is that his tenure as Head Coach has come to an end. The bad news is that coaching journeyman and nepo baby Brian Schottenheimer was promoted internally. He’s been with Dallas since 2022 and will be calling plays in addition to leading the team. Head coaching and calling the plays doesn’t seem like a recipe for success for a new head coach who’s claim to fame is “he was pretty good with Seattle”. But alas, Jerry gets what Jerry wants.
On defense former Bears HC, Matt Eberfus, comes in as coordinator. This D was red hot prior to the mess of a 2024 season. 10+ turnovers every year from 2021-2023. Micah Parsons will lead the front 7 and they can certainly generate pressure without bringing the blitz, which will be necessary given the lack of overall talent in the secondary.
For the 3rd time in 4 years the Cowboys went O-line with their 1st round pick, but Zach Martin retired in the offseason and it’s highly unlikely they return to their dominate form 2-3 years ago.
The confusing thing about handicapping this team is they absolutely have the big name superstars, but they lack depth and will struggle to compensate for some gaping holes. As we saw last year, even a few minor injuries to the top line can have an avalanche effect. It’s going to be a tough task for them to hit their win total with the 11th toughest schedule, and it gets brutal down the stretch. Specifically week 12-14. Eagles, Chiefs, Lions. This is where the wheels could really fall off and they have a come to Jesus conversation about Dak’s future.
The Cowboys were so underwhelming last year I forgot Dak got hurt in Week 9, but the foundation was already crumbling. They were 3-5 pre injury. Adding George Pickens should be a massive bump to the deep threat, but the Steelers are notorious for letting WR’s go before the rest of the league figures out they are trash (See AB, Chase Claypool, Juju). They’ll roll out arguably the worst RB room in the NFL with Javonte Williams, who struggled with elite blocking in Denver, and the forgotten Miles Sanders.
With a mid defense and a non-existent run game, we want a flyer on Dak and his new weapon, but absolutely nothing else to do with this team.
The Picks:
Dak Prescott Passing leader +1000 (FD) - Degen and Greg
Dak Prescott OVER 3825.5 -114 (FD) - Degen
Cowboys Under 7.5 Wins +110 (Hard Rock) - Steak
George Pickens Over 900.5 receiving yards -115 (FD) - Steak
New York Giants
2024 Record: 3-14
2025 Win Total: 5.5 (+105)
SB Odds: +25000
On to New York, where it’s either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning. This could be HC Brian Daboll’s last stand. He’s regressed every year since a breakthrough Coach of the Year performance in 2022.
Danny Dimes was sent packing, but the Giants are still feeling the aftershock of his absurd contract in 2023. The bright side is new beginnings offer promise with a solid draft haul including Abdul Carter, Jaxson Dart and let’s not forget Cam Skattebo. They had some big signings in free agency as well bringing in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston at QB, and Paulson Adebo and Jevon Holland in the secondary.
The unit that stands out most for the G-Men is the front seven. Lawrence, Burns, Thibodeaux and adding Carter will go a long way to keep pressure on opponents. Looking at the opponents it’s tough to see a path to success, much less going over the win total of 5.5.
Russ is a bit of an enigma. On paper he looks strong, and you could make an argument that Denver and Pittsburgh weren’t letting him play to his strengths. It’s legitimately shocking to see he was #3 in accuracy on throws +15 yards last year. But this narrative goes back to his time in Denver. The stats are there, but the performance isn’t. And we saw him take a big drop off when the Steelers schedule ramped up late in the year, Russ went missing. Doesn’t bode well considering the Giants play THE toughest schedule of opposing defenses to start the year and THE toughest schedule overall.
Rose colored glasses - Malik Nabers is a superstar. And we saw Russ have success with Pickens and Calvin Austin on the deep ball, but the Steelers are by nature conservative. Luckily for Russ, Daboll is not.
“It better not take too long, because I’ve just about run out of patience” - John Mara
Was last year rock bottom? Can the Giants sink any lower? They don’t have a Bye until Week 14, which means inserting an unpolished Jaxson Dart can backfire.
So we return to the initial question. Is the end of the Daboll era, or do they rush Dart and run the risk of spoiling a 1st round QB before he’s ready. Shit in one hand and shit in the other, see which one fills up first.
The only thing we are confident of is Malik Nabers is going to put up numbers regardless of who is throwing him the ball or if the game is competitive. As bad as the QB situation looks, it’s a big improvement from last year.
We all differ on the G Men. Steak says he’s in, and we always respect a bold take. Degen says this is likely going to end up being a disaster, but could also see cornball Wilson thriving in this “hero” role and save/prolong Brian Dabolls job. Greg leans under but is staying off. The Giants will either be the most obvious dumpster fire of all time, or the most unexpected underdog to shine. Come to think of it, Russ did win his only Super Bowl in MetLife…
The Picks:
Malik Nabers Over 1150.5 or receiving leader +1100 (DK) - Greg
Giants Over 5.5 Wins +110 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Abdul Carter DROY +250 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Philadelphia Eagles
2024 Record: 14-3
2025 Win Total: 11.5 (+115)
SB Odds: +750
I (Greg) was the first to say “Sirianni is a fraud” last year. Egg on my face. The Eagles were absolutely dominate. After a 2-2 start, and an early Bye week, they went 16-1 en route to a Super Bowl blow out. The late loss came at Washington, when Jalen Hurts got injured in the 1st Quarter and the Commanders put up 22 fourth quarter points.
It’s relevant, but not necessarily critical to remember what happened the last time Sirianni beat the Chiefs. Week 11 in 2023. Remember?
"I DON'T HEAR SHIT ANYMORE CHIEFS FANS. SEE YA!" - Nick Sirianni
After his Super Bowl revenge win over the Chiefs in 2023 Sirianni acted a fool, then went 2-6 and got smoked by the Buccaneers in the Playoffs. Will history repeat itself, or did he mature to not let his ego get the best of him?
The revolving door at OC continues as Kellen Moore left for the HC spot in Nola. This will be Hurts’ 6th OC in 6 years. Kevin Patullo steps up from passing game coordinator to lead the offense.
Vic Fangio did a phenomenal job with the defense, but he’ll have some big holes to fill this year. Josh Sweat, Bryce Hull, Darius Slay, Isiah Rodgers, CJ Gardner-Johnson are all gone. But they reloaded in the draft going defense with their first 5 picks.
The biggest news in the Philadelphia over the offseason was the vote on banning the Tush Push fell flat. It lives on. These plays account for 60% of Hurts rushing TD’s and Philly finds success with +80%. Essentially a cheat code on short yardage situations. Saq is out for an encore performance from his OPOY campaign in 2024. 2,300 yards while sitting out Week 18. However, last year they played the easiest schedule of run defenses and that won’t be the case this year. In fact, Philly has the biggest increase in schedule difficultly from last year.
2024: 4th easiest schedule
2025: 4th hardest schedule
This roster truly has no weakness. Great O-line, nasty D, talented skill players, and Hurts proved he’s up to the task to be a top tier QB. The only concern with Hurts is if the run game struggles. Last year had a career low in passing yards/game and he still struggles under pressure.
You would have to be crazy to bet against this team in the futures market. We’re not doing it, but we will find our spots throughout the season to short them.
The Picks:
Eagles to be 6-0 in Division +360 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Washington Commanders
2024 Record: 12-5
2025 Win Total: 9.5 (-110)
SB Odds: +1900
What a year for the Commanders. All it took was a new owner, new coach, new OC, new QB. Oh and the easiest schedule in the NFL certainly helped.
Jayden Daniels VR training paid off and you can be sure other teams are following suit in 2025.
Terry McLaurin is coming off his 5th consecutive 1,000 yard season and the Commanders went out and got Deebo Samuel to help the offense, in addition to adding Tunsil to protect Daniels. Big moves that should have an immediate effect.
The big story last year was the Commanders 4th down success. Some called it luck, but this is the NFL and you create your own luck. They converted 87% of 4th down attempts, which is the best in the modern NFL era. They were also 8-4 in one score games and 4-1 in games decided by a FG or less. “Luck” aside these numbers are very impressive, and will prove to be very difficult to replicate. Daniels only loss by more than one score was a blowout in Week 1 against Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers.
They still have some big problems on defense, but that was the narrative last year and they easily overcame it. We are a bit split on how this team will perform, but for those of us on the under it’s a simple as this. This team is a textbook case for regression. The 4th down success. The performance in one score games. A sophomore QB expected to slump. All things point to the Commanders taking a step back. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is a “shit wager of the year”, but you gotta trust your gut.
Degen says the Commanders success is here to stay. Acknowledging all the signs pointing to more challenges for Washington, I still think this pairing of Kliff Kingsbury at OC with a QB with like Jayden Daniels will only continue to improve and be a nightmare for opposing defenses.
The Picks:
Commanders UNDER 9.5 wins -110 (FD) - Greg
Jayden Daniels MVP +750 - Degen
Terry McLaurin Over 100.5 receiving yards -115 (FD) - Steak
RECAP
NFC East Bets
Dak Prescott Passing leader +1000 (FD) - Degen and Greg
Dak Prescott OVER 3825.5 -114 (FD) - Degen
Cowboys Under 7.5 Wins +110 (Hard Rock) - Steak
George Pickens Over 900.5 receiving yards -115 (FD) - Steak
Malik Nabers Over 1150.5 or receiving leader +1100 (DK) - Greg
Giants Over 5.5 Wins +110 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Abdul Carter DROY +250 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Eagles to be 6-0 in Division +360 (Hard Rock) - Steak
Commanders UNDER 9.5 wins -110 (FD) - Greg
Jayden Daniels MVP +750 - Degen
Terry McLaurin Over 100.5 receiving yards -115 (FD) - Steak