NFC North
NFL Futures - Part 3 of 8
You could make a strong argument that top to bottom this is the best division in the NFL entering the 2026 season.
This is the first time there has been some real disagreement across the Fake Sharp Family.
Let’s dive in!
NFC North:
Divisions played: AFC East and NFC South
Odds to win division:
Lions +150
Packers +270
Bears +320
Vikings +470
Chicago Bears
2025 Record: 11-6
2026 Win Total: 9.5 +100
SB Odds: +2700
The Bears are one of the more controversial teams entering 2026.
Can the recreate that 4th quarter magic and make another run? Will they even need Caleb’s last second heroics if they can take another big step forward on offense?
Steak is on the over, I’m going under. I can’t fault him and his rational is below:
I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Caleb/Ben Johnson duo was a flash in the pan or that they aren’t capable of repeating their success from last year. Hell, I agree with Steak. This offense is fun. They lost DJ Moore, but the expectations for Luther Burden are sky high and Colston Loveland makes a strong case for a top 3 TE. The only real question mark you could point to is their Center, Drew Dalman, retiring at the end of last season at the age of 27. Not insurmountable, but certainly worth mentioning.
My case for fading is on the defensive side of the ball and general regression from the Bears magic we saw last year.
Chicago led the NFL in turnover with 33. I like Dennis Allen (as a DC), but it’s unlikely they land with 30+ turnovers again. Especially when you look at the changes in personnel. Obviously turnovers are critical, but the Bears were very opportunistic. If this regresses to the mean, there is a huge opportunity for a step back.
When the Bears had either the same or worse turnover differential as their opponents they were 1-5. (Clevanalytics)
They lost Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Bayard in the secondary. Even though they signed Coby Bryant he’s likey to miss at least the first month with a knee injury. They drafted Dillon Thieneman (S - Oregon) in the 1st round to fill these losses as well. Devin Bush (LB) will replace Tremaine Edmunds, another change that I think leaves them weaker than 2025. Their pass rush is not impressive, Montez Sweat is the only guy worth mentioning.
I’m not a stat nerd, but in luck metrics the Bears were at the top of the league in most categories. If you wanna know more about luck metrics talk to someone who understands them, but it includes things like fumble recovery %, Opp Fg%, wins vs expected, etc.
Their schedule swings from the 4th easiest last year to the 6th hardest. Ending the season with the Bills, then 3 straight divisional games is brutal.
In Ben Johnson’s first year he completely retooled the O-Line and had a massive turnaround with Caleb. There’s obviously a chance Steak dunks on me. Caleb Williams is the truth. There’s no reason to think that in his 2nd year with Ben Johnson’s system allows for another leap in production.
Everything on offense says it will happen, but everywhere else is where they could stumble.
The Picks:
Kyle Monangai Over 649.5 yards -110 (Jeff Sunday)
Bears Over 9.5 Wins +100 (Steak)
Colston Loveland Over 800.5 recieving yards -110 (Steak)
D’Andre Swift Over 800.5 rushing yards -110 (Steak)
Bears Under 9.5 Wins -120 (Greg)
Detroit Lions
2025 Record: 9-8
2026 Win Total: 10.5 -115
SB Odds: +1800
Poor Lions.
Looking back it feels more and more like 2024 was their year. The first year without Ben Johnson was underwhelming. After going 15-2 and winning the division they followed it up with a 9-8 season, missed the playoffs, and finished 4th in the NFC North. John Morton took over for Ben Johnson. They revoked his playcall calling duties mid-season and fired him at the end of the year.
Detroit started 5-2 before ending the season on a 4-6 run after their BYE. Maybe they are on the down swing, but more than likely it was the natural result of compounding injuries on both sides of the ball.
It’s not often that a team who finished 4th in the division is the favorite going into the following season. They lost Anzalone (Bucs) and Montgomery (Lions). The offensive line that was dominant in 2024 has only one starter remaining from that unit (Sewell). Terrion Arnold had some offseason drama (jail) and he’s no longer on the team. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both still dealing with injuries from last year and will both miss time to start the season.
So where’s the optimism? Why the 10.5 win total?
They were the most injured team in the NFL last year. This year they play the easiest schedule in the NFL. Even though they finished last in the NFC North they had the highest point differential. They recognize the defense has been holding them back and 5 of their 7 draft picks went to resolving the issue. Drew Petzing will lead the offense and he is cut from the Ben Johnson cloth. Hell he was even a Groomsman in Johnson’s wedding.
The two strongest narratives around Jared Goff are weak O-line play and being exposed to the elements. Sure, the line isn’t what it was in 2024, but it’s still formidable and they drafted Blake Miller (T - Clemson) in the first round. After their BYE they have a stretch of 10 games where only 2 of them are outdoors. Miami and Munich.
The Lions are another team where we are split. Steak vs. Greg round 2!
The Picks:
Lions Under 10.5 Wins -105 (Steak)
Lions Win NFC North +150 (Greg)
Green Bay Packers
2025 Record: 9-7-1
2026 Win Total: 9.5 -130
SB Odds: +2000
The Packers Playoff loss was another episode of “Matt LaFluer - What the Fuck are you Doing”.
They led 21-3 at the half. LaFluer completely changed what was working and got conservative. They gave up 25 points in the 4th quarter. The kicker missed an extra point and a field goal in the final 7 minutes. Soldier Field got the best of them.
Collapse was the theme of the season. After starting 9-3-1 Micah Parsons got injured and they didn’t win another game. They went 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 7+ points losing outright to the Panthers and Browns.
Parsons’ injury will linger into 2026, but they did sign Javon Hargrave, Zaire Franklin and focused on defense in the draft. DC Jeff Hafley left for the head coaching role in Miami, replacing him with Jonathan Gannon.
Outside of the offensive line this is a very solid roster. Doubs and Wicks are gone, but the WR room is still strong. They had a ton of injuries to pass catchers with Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft all missing significant time. 2025 1st rounder, Matthew Golden, never showed signs of being worth it. I should know, I bet on his breakout game 8 times only to go 0-8.
Jordan Love is better than a lot of people give him credit for and that’s where I’ll be placing my bet. He had 4 TD’s and 0 Int’s but the team still found a way to lose in the Wildcard round.
Josh Jacobs is getting long in the tooth (love that expression) and had some offseason issues, like getting arrested in May. Maybe MarShawn Lloyd can step up if needed, but he’s had 6 carries for 15 yards in his first two seasons so… maybe not.
Like is said the Fake Sharps have a ton of differing opinions in the NFC North.
The Picks:
Packers Under 9.5 Wins +110 (Jeff Sunday)
LaFluer First Coach Fired Odds - TBD (Jeff Sunday)
Packers Over 9.5 Wins -130 (Steak)
Jordan Love Over 3549.5 Passing Yards (Greg)
Minnesota Vikings
2025 Record: 9-8
2026 Win Total: 8.5 -110
SB Odds: +4000
The Vikings are the only team in this division returning their head coach and both coordinators, but they weren’t without some major offseason changes.
GM - Kwesi Adofo-Mensah was fired shortly after the season. After letting Sam Darnold walk away to win a Super Bowl because you thought JJ McCarthy was the future, someone had to pay. But it’s worse than that. In four seasons with the Vikings he drafted exactly ZERO Pro-Bowlers.
Kyler Murray will likely be the starter entering Week 1, but there are a million questions about the QB situation. Between Kyler, JJ, and Cason Wentz you are in an impossible position. Yes, Kevin O’Connell has proven to be a magician with QB’s but this season will be a massive challenge.
The offensive line is still solid and whoever is lining up under center will have the benefit of throwing to Justin Jefferson. They added Jauan Jennings in FA and Jordan Addision is coming off a very solid season. It’s pretty crazy to roll out Aaron Jones Sr. again, but Jordan Mason can have his moments as a backup.
So you have an offense with good leadership, but a few massive concerns. Not terrible. Let’s not forget Max Brosmer beat the Lions last year with 51 passing yards. That’s what Brian Flores does for you on defense. Minnesota lost Jonathan Grennard, and they went heavy in the draft to fill that void taking Caleb Banks (DE - Florida) and Domonique Orange (DT - Iowa State). Big Citrus is the best nickname going into 2026.
To close out 2025 Minnesota won five in a row. It’s not much but that kind of momentum can be huge. 2026 sets up for a similar role, when the Vikings will play 5 of their last 7 games at home.
They need everything they can get after watching a QB who they let walk away hoist the Lombardi.
The Picks:
Kyler Murray Under 3000.5 passing yards -115 (Jeff Sunday)
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins -110 (Greg)
RECAP
NFC North Bets
Kyle Monangai Over 649.5 yards -110 (Jeff Sunday)
Bears Over 9.5 Wins +100 (Steak)
Colston Loveland Over 800.5 recieving yards -110 (Steak)
D’Andre Swift Over 800.5 rushing yards -110 (Steak)
Bears Under 9.5 Wins -120 (Greg)
Lions Under 10.5 Wins -105 (Steak)
Lions Win NFC North +150 (Greg)
Packers Under 9.5 Wins +110 (Jeff Sunday)
LaFluer First Coach Fired Odds - TBD (Jeff Sunday)
Packers Over 9.5 Wins -130 (Steak)
Jordan Love Over 3549.5 Passing Yards (Greg)
Kyler Murray Under 3000.5 passing yards -115 (Jeff Sunday)
Vikings Over 8.5 Wins -110 (Greg)