The weeks are flying by.
Less than a month away from NFL and 15 days till College Football kickoff.
Most of the pre-season write-ups are done by Greg, but if you’re a Tik Tok guy, Degen and Steak have been putting together short clips of team previews.
Their picks for the season will still be here and obviously on Twitter, but we are making a strong effort to get on as many social media channels on possible. That means bending the knee to Gen Z and jumping on Tik Tok. You can also watch their division previews each week on our YouTube Channel.
Go Go NFC South!
NFC South:
Divisions played: AFC East and NFC West
Odds to win division:
Buccaneers +105
Falcons +210
Panthers +390
Saints +1300
Atlanta Falcons
2024 Record: 8-9
2025 Win Total: 7.5
SB Odds: +6500
“The Birds don’t sing, they screech in pain” - John Legend
The Falcons entered 2024 with promise. Kirk Cousins at QB and Raheem Morris as head coach. Unfortunatley, Cousin’s was still hampered by the 2023 achilles injury and Raheem was unable to get the defense where it needed to be.
But fear not Falcons faithful - the (at the time) inexplicable drafting of Michael Penix Jr. turned out in your favor! This year he will lead the charge with OC Zac Robinson calling plays. Atlanta also added Jeff Ulbrich (Jets) to lead the defense.
The first step to a problem is recognizing it. Bringing in Ulbrich should help. He was good with the Jets, and it’s not his fault the Aaron Rodgers experiment crashed and burned and crashed again.
The Falcons were terrible last year at generating pressure, so they addressed that issue. Atlanta signed Leonard Floyd (EDGE) and were aggressive in the draft selecting Jalon Walker (LB - UGA) and trading up for James Pearce Jr. (DE - Tennessee) in the 1st round. They only had five draft picks and four of them were on the defense. They absolutely have to find a way to pressure opposing QB’s. Still A LONG ways away from what they need to be a real competitor, but for being in one of the worst divisions, the promise remains.
The plus side to not having a winning season since 2017 is you get to stack up talent in the draft. Bijan Robinson. Drake London. Kyle Pitts (Kidding!) This team is loaded with skill players and now it’s on Penix to turn that into some W’s.
The O-line is strong and Bijan was awsome last year while not having a single fumble on a rushing attempt (Sharp). It also makes no sense, but again going off Warren Sharp: Kirk Cousins was THE MOST accurate passer last year while leading the league in INT’s. Penix doesn’t have to be a great, he just needs to be able to get the ball to his playmakers.
They are in year two of the 4yr/$180M contract with Cousins. A hole you don’t quickly crawl out of. With Penix on his rookie deal and Zac Robinson calling some great plays for a broken Kirk, there is reason for hope.
Atlanta will face the 4th easiest schedule of opponents and we’ll likely get a clear look at Penix early. They play 3 of their first 6 games on SNF/MNF.
Steak is throwing caution to the wind and jumping in, but the rest of us have cold feet in what feels like another year of overpromise/underdeliver for the Dirty Birds.
The Picks:
Falcons WIN NFC South +210 (Steak)
Falcons to make Playoffs +155 (Steak)
Drake London OVER 1125.5 yards -110 (Steak)
Drake London OVER 1500 yards +600 (Steak)
Carolina Panthers
2024 Record: 5-12
2025 Win Total: 6.5
SB Odds: +12000
The only task for HC Dave Canales last year was to salvage Bryce Young.
He was benched for Andy Dalton after Week 2.
But after a 1-7 start, the Panthers went 4-5 in the 2nd half of the season. They were certainly a trendy team entering last year with everyone recongizing that Canales revitalized Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker in Tampa. Despite Young being atrocious to start the year, when he got another chance he was great. Good. Servicable…? Competent. We’ll go with that. Bryce Young had 7 TDs and 0 INTs to end the year.
Sure, it was against some of the worst secondaries in the league, but you are trying to rescuse a guy from the dead. Beyond dead. They paid the price of a genarational talent and were staring Ryan Leaf in the face. Any sign of improvement is a massive win. At the very least he got a bit of confidence back that should carry into 2025.
Bryce Young is the biggest problem for the Panthers, but he’s far away from being the only problem. Carolina has employed SEVEN different head coaches since 2019. They have not put up a winning record since 2017. The 2024 defense was the worst in yards/play and yard/game. They were the worst against the pass AND the run!
But let’s look at the positive - they were busy in the offseason, specifically on defense. Jaycee Horn is probably the only name that comes to mind when you think about them, but that could change. They signed Trevon Moehrig (S) in addition to Tershawn Wharton, Patrick Jones II and Bobby Brown on the defensive line. They also went defensive line in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft. AND they get Derrick Brown back who had 100+ tackles in 2023, only to get injured in Week 1 of 2024. They could finally get some much needed help on in the area their weakest.
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Drafting Tetairoa McMillian (WR - Arizona) will be a big help to Young potentially taking the next step forward. Last year they drafted Xavier Legette in the 1st round and he was underwhelming. Especially when you consider Theilen got hurt and Diontae Johnson was non-existent before getting injured/traded.
Despite being the most expensive O-line in the NFL the Pathers are nothing special up front. Chubba Hubbard is coming off a career year and was well compensated with a 4yr/$33M contract. Feels like an overpay based on a limited sample size.
Despite buring gamblers last year the hype remains high. For just cause. The Panthers have the 7th easiest schedule and in the first seven games of the season they don’t play a single playoff team.
The problems could mount later in the season as the strenght of opponests picks up and they don’t get a BYE until Week 14. It’s crazy to say a 5-12 record is inflated, but 3 of 5 wins last year came in OT.
If the Panthers don’t get out to a hot start it could be another head coaching change in 2026 and with an average QB you bet the farm on only to come up in pig shit.
The Picks:
Panther UNDER 7.5 wins -150 (Steak)
New Orleans Saints
2024 Record: 5-12
2025 Win Total: 5.5 Wins
SB Odds: +40000
In 2009 The Hangover debuted in movie theaters across America.
The plot is simple: After the best night of their lives, the characters spend the rest of the film trying to pick up the pieces and save their lives from ruin. This is also the plot to Kellen Moore’s current situation. Winning a Super Bowl. Coaching the Saints.
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Derek Carr unexectedly retired, and now Tyler Shough (QB-Louisville) is set to lead the charge. Brutal, but not impossible to overcome. Hiring Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator is where it could get real ugly. Staley single-handedly held the Chargers back every year he was their head coach.
2021 - Calls an inexplicable timeout to cost his team a trip to the playoffs
2022 - Allows one of the biggest playoff comebacks of all time
2023 - 5-9, fired
He spent last year as an assistant coach with the 49ers. You can’t blame him for thier terrible season, but it’s crazy to see him get the promotion.
What an awesome story! This is the reunion tour no one asked for. In 2023 they had a significantly more talented roster, went 5-12, and both got fired.
Moore has a decent resume, but everywhere he’s been he had a strong QB. Dak Prescott in Dallas, Justin Herbert in LA, Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. A massive difference from a guy who played college football for seven years.
Life comes at you fast in the NFL. Two weeks into the 2024 season the Saints looked unstoppable. Remember that? 91 POINTS IN TWO GAMES. After that they lost seven in a row.
When Carr was healthy the Saints could contend, but when he was injured they were left with Spencer Rattler, who might be the worst QB in the league. The big problem for 2025 is that due to Slough’s inexperience, Rattler is the expected starter for Week 1. With Carr’s retirement the Saints are still taking a hit for his cap space and were limited in the amout of off season moves they could make.
New Orleans had one of the worst defenses in the league last year and they did very little to improve the cause going forward. Signing Justin Reid (S), trading for Davon Godchaux (DL), and bringing back Chase Young on a 3 year deal. Meh.
They got a great building block for the future in 8th overall pick Kelvin Banks Jr. Wide Receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are a competent duo when healthy, but the signing of Brandin Cooks doesn’t do much.
The bright spot for last year was Alvin Kamara, who had a career high in rushing yards. The O-line isn’t good, but it’s far from their biggest weakness. Kamara proved he has gas in the tank, but will it be enough for this team to be relevant?
There isn’t much to like about the Saints going into 2025, but we’ll try to find one thing: the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL. Yet, they are currently only favored in one game - the Jets at home in Week 16.
It’s too public for Steak and Degen, but Greg is diving and fading what he believes is of the worst defenses in the league led by Brandon Staley.
The Picks:
Saints UNDER 5.5 Wins -165 (Greg)
Saints UNDER 3.5 Wins +250 (Greg)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2024 Record: 10-7
2025 Win Total: 9.5 Wins
SB Odds: +2900
Baker, Baker, Touchdown Maker!
Baker has been nothing short of phenomenal since becoming a Buccaneer. Stats aside, in back-to-back seasons he’s gotten his OC promoted to a head coaching gig. Liam Coen left for the Jags and John Gizzard was promoted internally to the OC spot. New year, new OC, nothing new for Baker. In his career he’s only had the same coordinator in the following season once.
Last year, with yet another new OC, he set career highs in every major passing metric. Completions, yards, attempts, completion %, TD’s. Ohh, and not to mention a career high in rushing yards (Sharp). Degen knew it was Baker SZN…
Defense was their weak spot last year. In the offseason they signed Hasson Reddick (EDGE) and drafted a couple of DB’s in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Will this be the answer to all their problems? Probably not.
This team has won FOUR straight division titles. The promise of the Falcons and the Pathers is just that. Promise. Both teams entered 2024 with loads of it, and we saw how it turned out.
Tampa absolutely needs the secondary to step up. They were one of the worst defenses in yards/game last year. The offseason moves should be enough for improvement, but not enough to take the next step in terms of Playoff success. You have to love a great big meatball up front and Vita Vea is exactly that. Will they be great, maybe. Will they be better, probably.
On offense, outside of Baker, the Bucs are loaded. Big body Bucky Irving will be the lead back. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are another year older but they added Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) in the 1st round. Outside of a new OC there aren’t many questions as to if this offense can continue to produce. The O-line was fantastic and they return all five starters.
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Most Bucs games in 2024 followed a similar pattern. Tampa ranked #1 in 1st quarter scoring, but thanks to the shotty defense, they only led at halftime in seven games. They also led the NFL in 4th quarter points (Sharp). The Bucs got up on opponents early, held on for dear life, then got some 4th quarter Baker Magic.
The biggest question is on defense, which is where HC Todd Bowles specializes. Would the Bucs be this dominate if they didn’t play in one of the worst divisions? Who cares. If the NFL hands you six games against the Falcons, Panthers, and Saints you take it!
After a mid-season slump they went on to win 6 of 7 down the strecth. As long as the division is loaded with empty promises in my (Greg’s) opinion you have to ride the hot hand.
The Picks:
Buccaneers WIN NFC South +105 (Greg)
RECAP
NFC South Bets
Falcons WIN NFC South +210 (Steak)
Falcons to make Playoffs +155 (Steak)
Drake London OVER 1125.5 yards -110 (Steak)
Drake London OVER 1500 yards +600 (Steak)
Panther UNDER 7.5 wins -150 (Steak)
Saints UNDER 5.5 Wins -165 (Greg)
Saints UNDER 3.5 Wins +250 (Greg)
Buccaneers WIN NFC South +105 (Greg)